Download PDF - ETP - Pemandu

These are encouraging green shoots of economic recovery
in 2012. On the other hand, China has managed to rein in
inflation and is in a good position to stimulate growth in the
event of a sharper than expected drop in external demand,
despite a downward revision of its 2012 Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) forecast to 7.5 per cent.
Malaysia’s economy is resilient
and evolving
In the face of supply chain disruptions caused by the
Japanese and Thai disasters as well as soft export demand
from the Eurozone, Malaysia’s economy continued to grow
on the back of resilient domestic demand and stronger
exports. The nation’s GDP grew at 5.1 per cent in 2011. Our
GDP grew by seven per cent in 2010. With the ETP beginning
to have an impact in 2012 and beyond, we are pursuing our
annual six per cent average growth target.
From an exports perspective, Malaysia’s dependency on
the US and Eurozone has declined to 12.2 per cent and
11 per cent respectively on average between 2007 and
2010, while intra-regional trade has risen to above 50 per
cent. Nonetheless, some of these exports are still linked
to demand in the developed economies as part of the
regional production supply chain to the US and Eurozone.
Sluggish performances in these regions will impact
Malaysia’s trade performance.
Exhibit A
Services accounts for 57.7% of economy
Consumption, Investment drive GDP
GDP 100%
GDP Supply Side Breakdown GDP Demand Side Breakdown
Agriculture
7.3%
Mining
7.0%
Manufacturing
27.6%
Construction
3.3%
Services
57.7%
LESS: Undistributed FISIM
4.1%
ADD: Import Duties
1.3%
21.9%
Investment has been a bright spark for Malaysia and
encouragingly has been driven by the private sector. In
2011, total investment grew to RM171.5 billion, up 10.2 per
cent from RM155.6 billion in 2010. This is led by a 19.4 per
cent growth in the private sector including a 12.3 per cent
growth in FDI. There has been a visible shift in the ratio of
private to public investment from approximately 50:50 in
2010 to 55:45 in 2011. Private investment in 2011 amounted
to RM94 billion, some 113 per cent above our target.
In addition, the 19.4 per cent private sector investment
growth was well above a 6.7 per cent average growth
between 2000 and 2010 and ahead of the 12.8 per cent
average growth targeted under the 10th Malaysia Plan. This
development validated our push to make the private sector
the engine of economic growth.
As Malaysia continues to progress up the value chain, we
are moving from a resource-based economy to one that is
more services-oriented in line with the structure of most
high-income nations. Based on the 2010 GDP, services
made up 57.7 per cent of the supply side supported by
manufacturing at 27.6 per cent. This translates into a
consumption and investment-driven demand side at 66.6
per cent and 21.9 per cent respectively.
11%
9.4%
10.9%
13.4%
2.1%
66.6%
53.2%
2011 Review of the ETP
Private Consumption
Public Consumption
Private Investment
Public Investment
Nett Trade
Inventory
Note: Based on 2010 GDP
7