literacy for life; EFA global monitoring report, 2006 - Institut de ...

EFA PROGRESS: WHERE DO WE STAND? / 69
Figure 2.29: The EDI in 2002 and its evolution since 1998 in countries with low EDI
1998
2002
Change (%)
Chad
Burkina Faso
Mali
Ethiopia
Mozambique
0.439
0.443
0.492
0.536
0.543
Djibouti
Mauritania
Eritrea
Côte d’Ivoire
Papua New Guinea
Bangladesh
0.629
0.640
0.652
0.659
0.660
0.663
Lao PDR
Zambia
Morocco
Cambodia
Guatemala
Saudi Arabia
0.745
0.748
0.749
0.761
0.782
0.789
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
-11.3
Chad
-1.7
Burkina Faso
-0.1
Mali
11.4 Ethiopia
12.2 Mozambique
4.3
Djibouti
5.8
Mauritania
1.9
Eritrea
12.2 Côte d’Ivoire
-8.2
Papua New Guinea
-0.2
Bangladesh
9.6 Lao PDR
-2.5
Zambia
9.1 Morocco
10.8 Cambodia
7.1
Guatemala
0.5
Saudi Arabia
-20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0
Note: Countries with an EDI below 0.800 in 2002 are included.
Source: Appendix 1, Table A1.3.
Universal primary education
As in the EDI, progress towards UPE is proxied by
the total primary NER. Among the 163 countries
for which 2002 data were available, 47, mostly in
North America and Western Europe, and Latin
America and the Caribbean, had achieved UPE by
that year. Projections could be run for about 90 of
the remaining 116 countries. Table 2.8 displays
the results.
Only twenty countries are likely to achieve UPE
by 2015. For example, Colombia’s NER
increased from 70% to 90% between 1990 and
2002, making it likely that UPE will be achieved
by 2015. Indonesia had achieved UPE in 1990
but its NER had decreased to 95% by 1999 due
to economic and political crisis; recovery
makes it likely that Indonesia will have achieved
UPE again by 2015.
Forty-four countries, most of them starting
from low enrolment levels, might not achieve
UPE, but are making reasonable progress.
For example, Burkina Faso’s NER increased
rapidly from 26% to 36% between 1990 and
2002, but is still very low. Bangladesh’s NER
rose from 78% in 1990 to 88% in 1998 but has
since stagnated.
Twenty countries are at risk of not achieving
the goal because their NERs are decreasing.
These are mostly countries in transition in
Central and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia
whose school systems have yet to recover
from the difficulties they have encountered
since 1990.
Three countries included in the analysis stand
out as being at serious risk of not achieving
UPE by 2015: Azerbaijan, Papua New Guinea
and Saudi Arabia, which have NERs that are
below 80% and decreasing.
Only twenty
countries
are likely to
achieve UPE
by 2015