literacy for life; EFA global monitoring report, 2006 - Institut de ...

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70 / CHAPTER 2
2
Education for All Global Monitoring Report
Thirty countries,
including India
and Pakistan,
are at risk of
not achieving
the literacy
goal by 2015
Table 2.8: Country prospects for the achievement of universal primary education by 2015
Distance from 100% NER in 2002
Close or in an
intermediate
position
Intermediate
position or far
QUADRANT I
At risk of not achieving the goal
20 countries
Albania, Bahrain, British Virgin Islands,
Czech Republic, Equatorial Guinea, Estonia,
Georgia, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Slovenia, Maldives,
Malaysia, Netherlands Antilles, Palestinian A. T.,
Paraguay, Romania, South Africa, TFYR of Macedonia,
Uruguay, Viet Nam
QUADRANT IV
Serious risk of not achieving the goal
3 countries
Azerbaijan, Papua New Guinea, Saudi Arabia
Away from the goal
Adult literacy
For this analysis of prospects, countries with
current literacy rates above 97% are considered
as close to ‘universal literacy’ (still speaking in
terms of data derived from non-direct, non-test
assessment) and therefore are not included in the
analysis. Such countries account for less than
30% of those with data available for 2000–2004.
Most of them are in Central Asia, Central and
Eastern Europe, and Western Europe. By contrast,
no country in the Arab States, South and West
Asia or sub-Saharan Africa is close to ‘universal
literacy’. As noted earlier, those are the regions
with the lowest average adult literacy rates.
As adult literacy rates are increasing
everywhere, a distinction is drawn between
countries progressing relatively slowly (slow
performers) towards high literacy or relatively
rapidly (fast performers). Projections could be run
for ninety-two countries, including nineteen that
have reached literacy rates above 97% (most of
them in Europe and Central Asia). Table 2.9
displays the results for the remaining seventythree
countries.
Change over the period from 1990 to 2002
QUADRANT II
High chance of achieving the goal
20 countries
Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Bulgaria, Cambodia,
Colombia, Cuba, Guatemala, Indonesia, Ireland,
Jamaica, Jordan, Lesotho, Lithuania, Malta,
Mauritius, Morocco, Nicaragua, Vanuatu, Venezuela
QUADRANT III
Low chance of achieving the goal
44 countries
Bangladesh, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi,
Chad, Chile, Costa Rica, Côte d’Ivoire, Croatia, Djibouti,
Egypt, El Salvador, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gambia, Ghana,
Guinea, Iran (Isl. Rep.), Kenya, Lao PDR, Latvia,
Lebanon, Macao (China), Madagascar, Mali,
Mauritania, Mongolia, Mozambique, Myanmar,
Namibia, Niger, Oman, Republic of Moldova, Saint
Vincent and the Grenadines, Senegal, Swaziland,
Thailand, Trinidad and Tobago, United Arab Emirates,
U. R. of Tanzania, Yemen, Zambia, Zimbabwe
Towards the goal
Twenty-three countries stand a fairly high
chance of meeting goal 4, as their literacy rates
are already relatively high and increasing quite
quickly.
Twenty countries, many of them in Latin
America and the Caribbean, are at risk of not
meeting the goal given the current pace of
increase in their literacy rates, though the rates
themselves are quite high.
Thirty countries are at serious risk of not
achieving the goal by 2015 because their very
low literacy rates are not increasing fast
enough. Most of these countries are in Africa,
but the list also includes India, Nepal and
Pakistan, and several Latin American
countries.
Gender parity in primary and secondary
education
Country prospects for the achievement of gender
parity are assessed on the basis of trend
projections of GERs in primary and secondary
education, by gender, for 2005 and 2015,
consistent with the formulation of the gender
goal. Table 2.10 displays the results for
149 countries.