NTRAC Final Study - Nebraska Department of Roads - State of ...

CHAPTER 8 – FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC EVALUATION
years. In both the low and high ridership cases, commuter ridership and revenue grow at 1.5
percent per year (based on an average of the growth rates in population and employment in
Lincoln, Douglas and Sarpy Counties). However, special event ridership is held to 2010 levels:
the assumption is that they almost fill the trains as is, and thus do not grow as commuters do. A
1.5 percent annual increase in commuters over 20 years results in almost a 35 percent total
increase in the period. But the 1.5 percent annual increase in commuters coupled with the flat
special event ridership results in total ridership and revenue increases of less the 35 percent over
the 20-year period.
Operating costs remain constant, as the growth is not sufficient to trigger any increases in service
levels. The result is improvement financial performance, as seen in improved fare box recovery
rates in the table below. With increasing revenues and constant costs, the operating subsidies
required to cover operating costs over the period decrease, depending on the ridership
assumption. The numbers in the table below are in 2003 dollars. Throughout this paper, the
dollars figures are shown in constant dollars, excluding inflation.
Table 8-1: Scenario A 20-year Financial Summary
2010 2030 Difference Change
Low Ridership Rail Bus Total Rail Bus Total
Ridership 140,690 51,875 192,565 186,249 69,868 256,117 63,552 33%
Revenue 785,527 119,706 905,233 1,035,085 161,226 1,196,311 291,078 32%
Operating Cost 4,958,424 210,330 5,168,754 4,958,424 210,330 5,168,754 0 0%
Subsidy 4,172,897 90,624 4,263,521 3,923,339 49,104 3,972,443 -291,078 -7%
Fare Box Recovery 16% 57% 18% 21% 77% 23%
High Ridership
Ridership 198,579 60,805 259,384 263,407 81,896 345,303 85,919 33%
Revenue 1,107,304 140,747 1,248,052 1,462,746 189,566 1,652,312 404,260 32%
Operating Cost 4,958,424 210,330 5,168,754 4,958,424 210,330 5,168,754 0 0%
Subsidy 3,851,120 69,583 3,920,702 3,495,678 20,764 3,516,442 -404,260 -10%
Fare Box Recovery 22% 67% 24% 30% 90% 32%
Source: Wilbur Smith Associates
To be sure, forecasting is not so precise a science that ridership can be estimated to the last rider,
or revenues and costs estimated to the dollar. Accordingly, the summary observations below are
stated with rounded numbers. In sum, given a high-side ridership by 2030:
Ridership should reach about 345,000 annual trips, from 260,000 in 2010.
Revenue should reach $1.7 million, from $1.2 million in 2010.
Operating subsidies should decrease $404,000 per year.
Fare box recovery should reach 32 percent.
As will be shown later, Scenario A generates a cost per new rider figure that renders it unlikely
to qualify for federal funding. In this case, all capital funding would have to be generated either
at the State or local level, or both. Assuming financing (bonding) of these costs, another $9.3
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NEBRASKA TRANSIT CORRIDORS STUDY
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WILBUR SMITH ASSOCIATES