NTRAC Final Study - Nebraska Department of Roads - State of ...

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CHAPTER 3 – RIDERSHIP POTENTIAL Table 3-5: 2010 Intercity Rail and Bus Trips Kearney to Omaha Corridor O-D Pairs Adjusted 2000 Daily O-D volume Growth Projected 2010 daily O-D volume Daily rail volume Daily bus volume Kearney-Grand Island 565 12.35% 634 6 3 Kearney-York 25 7.75% 27 0 0 Kearney-Lincoln 135 15.45% 156 2 1 Kearney-Omaha 135 14.50% 155 2 1 Grand Island-York 160 7.00% 171 2 1 Grand Island-Lincoln 320 14.70% 367 4 2 Grand Island-Omaha 790 13.75% 899 9 4 York-Lincoln 475 10.30% 524 5 3 York-Omaha 130 9.35% 142 1 1 Lincoln-Omaha 7,465 17.05% 8,738 87 44 Total 118 59 Norfolk to Omaha Corridor O-D Pairs Adjusted 2000 O-D volume Growth 2010 O-D Volume Rail Volume Bus volume Norfolk-Columbus 470 7.95% 507 5 3 Norfolk-Fremont 145 8.75% 158 2 1 Norfolk-Omaha 420 12.50% 473 5 2 Columbus-Fremont 335 7.80% 361 4 2 Columbus-Omaha 765 11.55% 853 9 4 Fremont-Omaha 3,225 12.35% 3,623 36 18 Total 60 30 S. Sioux City to Nebraska City O-D Pairs Adjusted 2000 O-D volume Growth 2010 O-D Volume Rail Volume Bus volume S. Sioux City-Blair 5 17.50% 6 0 0 S. Sioux City-Omaha 45 17.95% 53 1 0 S. Sioux City-Nebraska City 0 14.90% 0 0 0 Blair-Omaha 1,630 15.65% 1,885 19 9 Blair-Nebraska City 5 12.60% 6 0 0 Omaha-Nebraska City 500 13.05% 565 6 3 Total 25 13 Source: Wilbur Smith Associates; intercity trips for 2000 provided by NDOR. From this analysis, none of these Nebraska corridors appears to hold promise for intercity rail options. However, with a total of about 60 daily bus riders, the Kearney to Omaha corridor would appear to justify intercity bus service. Indeed, Greyhound today runs several trips a day on this corridor. 384180 NEBRASKA TRANSIT CORRIDORS STUDY Page 3 - 10 WILBUR SMITH ASSOCIATES
CHAPTER 3 – RIDERSHIP POTENTIAL SUMMARY From the preceding preliminary analysis of potential ridership in 2010, various points seem clear. The best opportunity for commuter rail appears to be between Omaha and Lincoln. Even so, ridership will be on the low side of commuter rail ridership experienced nationally. Potential demand for express bus services appears to exist in all commute corridors reviewed in the Omaha-Lincoln area, with the exception of Otoe County to Omaha. Potential demand appears to exist to merit transit service (either bus or rail) for special events related to UNL sports events. Demand is insufficient to support new intercity rail services. The market with the best potential for intercity bus, i.e. between Omaha and Lincoln, is already served well by existing intercity bus services. Before federal funding for any alternative can be obtained, a regional travel demand model needs to be developed so that more accurate ridership can be predicted. COMBINATIONS OF SERVICE In March of 2003, NTRAC decided to concentrate the analysis on three commute-length corridors focused on Lincoln and Omaha, i.e. Lincoln-Omaha, Fremont-Omaha, and Blair- Omaha. None of these is more than 60 miles long, and each has a definable commuter population. The rationale for the focus was simply that the greater Lincoln-Omaha area is where the most potential ridership would be for rail and/or bus commute options, and that the larger market potential would provide the stronger justification for implementing transit services. NTRAC further identified alternative scenarios for transit services in these corridors. These were: Scenario A: commuter rail between Lincoln and Omaha, express bus between Omaha and Fremont and between Omaha and Blair. This option would have a total rail/bus ridership of between 193,000 and 259,000 (rounded to the nearest 1,000) in year 2010, as shown in Table 3-6 below. Scenario B: express bus between Lincoln and Omaha, between Omaha and Fremont, and between Omaha and Blair. This option would have a total bus ridership 108,000 and 141,000 in 2010. Scenario C: express bus between Lincoln and Omaha. This option would have a total bus ridership of between 56,000 and 81,000 in 2010. 384180 NEBRASKA TRANSIT CORRIDORS STUDY Page 3 - 11 WILBUR SMITH ASSOCIATES
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Nebraska Transit Corridors Study Co
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY between 141,000 a
Page 9 and 10: TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary
Page 11 and 12: TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 8 Financi
Page 13 and 14: Chapter 1 STUDY PURPOSE AND METHODO
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Page 17: CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION services,
Page 21: North Platte Lexington Kearney Gran
Page 25: NEBRASKA CORRIDORS STUDY Figure 2-2
Page 32 and 33: EXISTING CONDITIONS TRAVEL PATTERNS
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Page 99 and 100: CHAPTER 6 - EXPRESS BUS PLANS Table
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Page 107 and 108: Chapter 7 ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL
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CHAPTER 7 - ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIA
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CHAPTER 7 - ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIA
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Chapter 8 FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC AN
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CHAPTER 8 - FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC
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Chapter 9 NEXT STEPS TOWARD IMPLEME
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CHAPTER 9 - NEXT STEPS TOWARD IMPLE
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APPENDICES
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APPENDIX A - RIDERSHIP COMPARISONS
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Appendix B COMMUTER RAIL COSTS Appe
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Coffee and water per month 100 Annu
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Advertising per month 4,000 Telecom
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Table B-2b Omaha Suburban Station E
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Table B-2d Lincoln at N. 48th St. S
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Table B-3a Lincoln Maintenance Faci
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Table B-4a Melia Siding Description
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Table B-4c Chalco Siding Descriptio
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Table C-1 Fremont Park-and-Ride Cos
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Appendix D NTRAC MEMBERS The follow
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