NTRAC Final Study - Nebraska Department of Roads - State of ...

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CHAPTER 8 – FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC EVALUATION years. In both the low and high ridership cases, commuter ridership and revenue grow at 1.5 percent per year (based on an average of the growth rates in population and employment in Lincoln, Douglas and Sarpy Counties). However, special event ridership is held to 2010 levels: the assumption is that they almost fill the trains as is, and thus do not grow as commuters do. A 1.5 percent annual increase in commuters over 20 years results in almost a 35 percent total increase in the period. But the 1.5 percent annual increase in commuters coupled with the flat special event ridership results in total ridership and revenue increases of less the 35 percent over the 20-year period. Operating costs remain constant, as the growth is not sufficient to trigger any increases in service levels. The result is improvement financial performance, as seen in improved fare box recovery rates in the table below. With increasing revenues and constant costs, the operating subsidies required to cover operating costs over the period decrease, depending on the ridership assumption. The numbers in the table below are in 2003 dollars. Throughout this paper, the dollars figures are shown in constant dollars, excluding inflation. Table 8-1: Scenario A 20-year Financial Summary 2010 2030 Difference Change Low Ridership Rail Bus Total Rail Bus Total Ridership 140,690 51,875 192,565 186,249 69,868 256,117 63,552 33% Revenue 785,527 119,706 905,233 1,035,085 161,226 1,196,311 291,078 32% Operating Cost 4,958,424 210,330 5,168,754 4,958,424 210,330 5,168,754 0 0% Subsidy 4,172,897 90,624 4,263,521 3,923,339 49,104 3,972,443 -291,078 -7% Fare Box Recovery 16% 57% 18% 21% 77% 23% High Ridership Ridership 198,579 60,805 259,384 263,407 81,896 345,303 85,919 33% Revenue 1,107,304 140,747 1,248,052 1,462,746 189,566 1,652,312 404,260 32% Operating Cost 4,958,424 210,330 5,168,754 4,958,424 210,330 5,168,754 0 0% Subsidy 3,851,120 69,583 3,920,702 3,495,678 20,764 3,516,442 -404,260 -10% Fare Box Recovery 22% 67% 24% 30% 90% 32% Source: Wilbur Smith Associates To be sure, forecasting is not so precise a science that ridership can be estimated to the last rider, or revenues and costs estimated to the dollar. Accordingly, the summary observations below are stated with rounded numbers. In sum, given a high-side ridership by 2030: Ridership should reach about 345,000 annual trips, from 260,000 in 2010. Revenue should reach $1.7 million, from $1.2 million in 2010. Operating subsidies should decrease $404,000 per year. Fare box recovery should reach 32 percent. As will be shown later, Scenario A generates a cost per new rider figure that renders it unlikely to qualify for federal funding. In this case, all capital funding would have to be generated either at the State or local level, or both. Assuming financing (bonding) of these costs, another $9.3 384180 NEBRASKA TRANSIT CORRIDORS STUDY Page 8 - 2 WILBUR SMITH ASSOCIATES
CHAPTER 8 – FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC EVALUATION million in principal and interest payments would need to be added for annual subsidy for the first 12 years (term of financing). Of this amount, $8.9 million would be due to financing rail related costs. Capital Investments Capital investments required for Scenario A appear in Table 8-2. Rail rolling stock will be delivered and paid for in 2009, prior to start-up of service in 2010. Similarly, rail line capacity improvements, stations, and support facilities will be completed and paid for in that year. Thus, 2009 will see about $79 million dollars in capital costs. In 2020, the DMU’s will undergo a major refurbishment, estimated at half their purchase price. At the end of 20 service years, they will be sold for a residual value of 5 percent of their purchase price, and will be replaced with brand new DMUs. Bus capital costs will total $4.2 million in 2009, inclusive of buses and new park and ride lots. The buses will be refurbished after 8 service years for 10 percent of their purchase price. New buses will be purchased in 2021, and the old buses will be sold off for their residual value the following year. The buses purchased in 2021 will be due for refurbishment in 2030. Table 8-2: Scenario A 20-year Capital Improvements Summary 2009 2018 2020 2021 2022 2029 2030 Rail Rolling Stock 27,200,000 13,600,000 27,200,000 -1,360,000 Facilities 52,066,101 Subtotal 79,266,101 13,600,000 27,200,000 -1,360,000 Bus Rolling Stock 2,700,000 270,000 2,700,000 -135,000 270,000 Facilities 1,550,000 Subtotal 4,250,000 270,000 2,700,000 -135,000 270,000 Total 83,516,101 270,000 13,600,000 2,700,000 -135,000 27,200,000 1,090,000 Source: Wilbur Smith Associates Scenario B Financial Performance For this all express bus option, ridership growth was assumed at 1.5 per year. Operating costs would stay constant. No special events ridership was assumed. As seen in Table 8-3, the result on the high side is 35 percent growth in ridership and revenues, a $132,000 drop in annual operating subsidies, and a fare box recovery jump from 59 percent to 79 percent. 384180 NEBRASKA TRANSIT CORRIDORS STUDY Page 8 - 3 WILBUR SMITH ASSOCIATES
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Nebraska Transit Corridors Study Co
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY between 141,000 a
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TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary
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TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 8 Financi
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Chapter 1 STUDY PURPOSE AND METHODO
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CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION Table 1-1
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CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION services,
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North Platte Lexington Kearney Gran
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NEBRASKA CORRIDORS STUDY Figure 2-2
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EXISTING CONDITIONS TRAVEL PATTERNS
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EXISTING CONDITIONS Table 2-3: Summ
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EXISTING CONDITIONS changing lanes,
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EXISTING CONDITIONS expressway. Als
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EXISTING CONDITIONS CORRIDOR RAIL L
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EXISTING CONDITIONS airports, which
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Chapter 3 RIDERSHIP POTENTIAL INTRO
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CHAPTER 3 - RIDERSHIP POTENTIAL the
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CHAPTER 3 - RIDERSHIP POTENTIAL Gre
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CHAPTER 3 - RIDERSHIP POTENTIAL Tab
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CHAPTER 3 - RIDERSHIP POTENTIAL 2.
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CHAPTER 3 - RIDERSHIP POTENTIAL SUM
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Chapter 4 TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS INTROD
Page 63 and 64: CHAPTER 4 - TECHNOLOGY OPITONS Sit
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Page 76 and 77: CHAPTER 5 - COMMUTER RAIL PLAN MINI
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Page 93: Chapter 6 EXPRESS BUS PLANS INTRODU
Page 97 and 98: CHAPTER 6 - EXPRESS BUS PLANS Expre
Page 99 and 100: CHAPTER 6 - EXPRESS BUS PLANS Table
Page 103 and 104: CHAPTER 6 - EXPRESS BUS PLANS Five
Page 107 and 108: Chapter 7 ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL
Page 109 and 110: CHAPTER 7 - ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIA
Page 111 and 112: CHAPTER 7 - ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIA
Page 113: Chapter 8 FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC AN
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Page 137 and 138: Chapter 9 NEXT STEPS TOWARD IMPLEME
Page 139 and 140: CHAPTER 9 - NEXT STEPS TOWARD IMPLE
Page 141: APPENDICES
Page 144 and 145: APPENDIX A - RIDERSHIP COMPARISONS
Page 147: Appendix B COMMUTER RAIL COSTS Appe
Page 150 and 151: Coffee and water per month 100 Annu
Page 152 and 153: Advertising per month 4,000 Telecom
Page 154 and 155: Table B-2b Omaha Suburban Station E
Page 156 and 157: Table B-2d Lincoln at N. 48th St. S
Page 158 and 159: Table B-3a Lincoln Maintenance Faci
Page 160 and 161: Table B-4a Melia Siding Description
Page 162 and 163: Table B-4c Chalco Siding Descriptio
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Table C-1 Fremont Park-and-Ride Cos
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Appendix D NTRAC MEMBERS The follow
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