NTRAC Final Study - Nebraska Department of Roads - State of ...

CHAPTER 3 – RIDERSHIP POTENTIAL
Methodology
To understand the ridership potential for new transit services in the three Nebraska corridors, the
analysis first tabulated existing daily trips between each city in its respective corridor. The
analysis then applied intercity rail and bus intercity capture rates. These capture rates were
derived from a review of similar service levels in similar rail and bus intercity markets.
Sources
The Nebraska Department of Roads calculated the daily intercity motor vehicle volumes
for each city pair in its respective corridors for the year 2000.
Total intercity travel in comparable corridors was taken from the American Travel Survey
(ATS), conducted for the year 1995 by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics of the U.S.
Department of Transportation.
The intercity rail ridership in those corridors was provided by Amtrak, the operator.
Representative rail and bus shares of intercity rail travel were identified from the
“Southeast High Speed Rail Market and Demand Study”, North Carolina Department of
Transportation et al., 1997.
County population projections were obtained from the Bureau of Business Research,
University of Nebraska in Lincoln.
Rail Ridership
Table 3-4 shows the rail ridership achieved in a set of 11 O-D pairs comparable with distances to
the Nebraska transit corridor O-D pairs. This particular calculation has Amtrak trips as a percent
of estimated intercity trips per the American Travel Survey. The average for all shares is about
0.05 percent.
Table 3-4: Current Intercity Rail Capture Rates in Selected Corridors
Current
Annual
Amtrak
Ridership
One-Way
Amtrak Daily
Psgr Trips/
Total Daily
Intercity
Trips
A
B
2001
Corridor
Population
Corridor
Length in
miles
Total Daily
Intercity
Trips
Amtrak
Daily Psgr
Trips
Buffalo Rochester 1,678,000 67 2,300 160,000 6 0.004%
Detroit Kalamazoo 2,422,000 143 9,700 739,400 27 0.004%
Fresno Bakersfield 1,492,100 111 13,800 189,300 38 0.020%
Charlotte Greensboro 1,141,800 89 5,500 320,000 15 0.005%
Modesto Fresno 1,284,303 94 6,600 241,800 18 0.007%
Omaha Lincoln 843,600 55 100 7,500 0.27 0.004%
Raleigh Greensboro 1,427,900 84 13,800 682,000 38 0.006%
Rochester Syracuse 1,191,500 79 2,800 71,700 8 0.011%
Springfield Windsor/Hartford 1,317,000 26 1,500 104,700 4 0.004%
St. Louis/Kirkwood Kansas City 2,197,300 283 60,300 920,000 165 0.018%
Windsor/Hartford New Haven 1,687,500 32 36,500 136,000 100 0.074%
Source: Wilbur Smith Associates and others as noted below.
Notes:
1. Population estimates from 2000 U.S. Census Data.
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NEBRASKA TRANSIT CORRIDORS STUDY
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WILBUR SMITH ASSOCIATES