NTRAC Final Study - Nebraska Department of Roads - State of ...

CHAPTER 3 – RIDERSHIP POTENTIAL
Gretna Rail ridership
The commuter rail forecast in Table 3-2 is exclusive of ridership generated by a mid-route stop at
Gretna and special event traffic. Gretna would generate comparatively light ridership, estimated
at a low of 1,829 passenger trips in 2010 to Omaha. This is an equivalent of 4 percent of
weekday work trips (180 2 ) between Gretna and Omaha work centers that can be served by rail.
A high-side estimate assumes a capture rate of 5 percent of work trips, resulting in a forecast of
2,286 riders in 2010. Gretna-Lincoln trips are counted as part of the commuter rail ridership
from Omaha to Lincoln 3 .
Other mid-route stations could be added (e.g. Ashland) as demand merits, but there will be a
consequent elongation of travel time and increase in capital costs.
Special Event Rail Ridership
According to the University of Nebraska in Lincoln (UNL), the main special event that attracts
Omaha residents is the fall football season. While specific numbers were not available, it is safe
to assume that thousands of Cornhusker fans living in Omaha make the autumnal trek on about
seven Saturdays to Lincoln and back by car. Attendance at Memorial Stadium can top 77,000
(seated capacity is 73,918). This rail patronage analysis assumes that three train sets, each
consisting of a three-car self-propelled Diesel Multiple Unit (DMU) with 278 seats, would be
filled to between 80- and 100-percent of capacity on game days. The football traffic would thus
generate between 9,300 and 11,700 additional passenger trips in 2010. Facilitating this flow is
the location of Memorial Stadium within walking distance from Lincoln Station.
The university also reported minor Omaha resident attendance at basketball and baseball games,
amounting to a few hundred per game. The potential for rail ridership relative to these events
was not analyzed as a result. That noted, given a convenient service, some fans in Omaha may
opt for rail to UNL. While Hawks Field (baseball) is within walking distance of the Lincoln
Station, Bob Devaney Sports Center (basketball) is further afield; a shuttle would have to be
provided.
Other Potential Ridership
Large employers, like the University of Nebraska, could encourage employees to ride trains by
subsidizing their fares, at least to some degree. Furthermore, the University could subsidize
student fares. But such actions are within the purview of these institutions, and are outside of a
commuter rail implementation per se. Accordingly, ridership that could result from these actions
is not part of the forecast.
2 Derived from Metropolitan Area Planning Agency (MAPA) travel demand model. 2010 work trips between Gretna and
Downtown Omaha centers interpolated between 2000 and 2025 summed volumes.
3 These were based on estimates of inter-county ridership in 2010; a specific estimate of Gretna-Lincoln riders was not
performed. Any difference in revenue due to a small number of riders actually boarding in Gretna rather than in Omaha is
small and not material to the analysis.
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NEBRASKA TRANSIT CORRIDORS STUDY
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WILBUR SMITH ASSOCIATES