NTRAC Final Study - Nebraska Department of Roads - State of ...

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CHAPTER 8 – FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC EVALUATION Magnitude of Potential Impacts As described in seen in 8-8, the diversion of vehicular traffic from I-80 and other Nebraska highways per the three scenarios would result in significant benefits in 2010. Rail by itself would generate total benefits of about $1 million in accident, traveler cost, and congestion savings in 2010. The specific types of savings and their calculation are discussed below. There will be higher savings for each of the scenarios in future years, for the savings will grow with ridership. Table 8-8: Scenario Total Savings in 2010 Scenario A Accident cost savings $565,673 Traveler cost savings 390,814 Congestion savings 300,183 Total 1,256,670 Scenario B Accident cost savings $299,755 Traveler cost savings 457,340 Congestion savings 148,013 Total 905,108 Scenario C Accident cost savings $210,241 Traveler cost savings 352,363 Congestion savings 100,271 Total 662,875 Rail Alone Accident cost savings $476,159 Traveler cost savings 285,837 Congestion savings 253,066 1,015,062 Source: Wilbur Smith Associates Accident Savings These are savings resulting from accidents that would be avoided with driving commuters switching to commutes by rail and/or bus. To calculate these savings, estimate rail and bus ridership was converted to the equivalent of vehicle-miles of travel. This required an assumption of a load factor for a commute car. This analysis assumed a typical load factor of 1.1 persons per commuter car. The calculation also required two other factors: an accident cost per vehicle-mile, and an accident cost per rail passenger mile. This analysis assumed a cost per vehicle-mile of $0.05, based on a review of national accident costs and accident rate in Nebraska and Iowa. The national statistics pointed to an overall accident cost per vehicle-mile of $0.16 (an average cost of property damage, injuries and fatalities) for all types of vehicles and all types of roads. As seen in Table 8-9, the Nebraska data showed accident rates for Interstate and rural highways of about one-third of urban road systems. Noting that trips in the three transit corridors would take place predominantly on either Interstate or rural highways, it is reasonable to expect accident costs would be conservatively about onethird of the national average, or about $0.05. 384180 NEBRASKA TRANSIT CORRIDORS STUDY Page 8 - 16 WILBUR SMITH ASSOCIATES
CHAPTER 8 – FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC EVALUATION Table 8-9: Nebraska Statewide Accident Rates per Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) Highway Type Surrounding Environment Accident Rate per Million VMT Interstate highway Urban 1.357 Rural 0.557 Four lane highway Urban 4.386 Rural 1.291 Two lane highway Urban 3.904 Rural 1.163 Source: Nebraska Department of Roads For example, accident cost saving for rail diversion of car traffic between Lincoln and Omaha in 2010 was calculated by: Dividing rail ridership by the 1.1 load factor to identify the cars diverted from the highways. Multiplying the diverted cars by the point-to-point highway route miles to calculate a VMT equivalent of the rail ridership (i.e. 10,082,3631). Multiplying this VMT equivalent by $0.05 per vehicle-mile accident cost. The result is an approximate accident cost avoided of $504,116. To calculate net savings, however, rail accidents cost must be subtracted from this figure. The safety costs associated with rail passenger diversion include rail accident costs resulting from the projected increase in passengers and the resulting passenger-miles. These costs are estimated using data from Amtrak’s accident/incident overview and accident table as reported by the Federal Railroad Administration. The rail accident cost per passenger-mile is illustrated in Table 8-10. As shown in the table, the four-year weighted average of reportable rail accident damage per passenger-mile used in the analysis is $0.00275. Year Total/Weighted Average Table 8-10: Amtrak Reportable Damage per Passenger-mile Accident Reportable Reportable Damage Count Damage Passenger-miles per Passenger-mile 1998 122 $8,771,465 5,324,191,727 $0.00165 1999 116 $20,816,334 5,288,677,392 $0.00394 2000 187 $11,277,149 5,573,991,695 $0.00202 2001 192 $19,036,559 5,570,567,754 $0.00342 617 $59,901,507 21,757,428,568 $0.00275 1 (184,000 annual Lincoln-Omaha riders / 1.1 load factor times 60 bus route miles) + (2,300 Greta-Omaha riders / 1.1 load factor time 22 bus route miles) = 10,082,322. 384180 NEBRASKA TRANSIT CORRIDORS STUDY Page 8 - 17 WILBUR SMITH ASSOCIATES
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Nebraska Transit Corridors Study Co
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY between 141,000 a
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TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary
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TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 8 Financi
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Chapter 1 STUDY PURPOSE AND METHODO
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CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION Table 1-1
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CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION services,
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North Platte Lexington Kearney Gran
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NEBRASKA CORRIDORS STUDY Figure 2-2
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EXISTING CONDITIONS TRAVEL PATTERNS
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EXISTING CONDITIONS Table 2-3: Summ
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EXISTING CONDITIONS changing lanes,
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EXISTING CONDITIONS expressway. Als
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EXISTING CONDITIONS CORRIDOR RAIL L
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EXISTING CONDITIONS airports, which
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Chapter 3 RIDERSHIP POTENTIAL INTRO
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CHAPTER 3 - RIDERSHIP POTENTIAL the
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CHAPTER 3 - RIDERSHIP POTENTIAL Gre
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CHAPTER 3 - RIDERSHIP POTENTIAL Tab
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CHAPTER 3 - RIDERSHIP POTENTIAL 2.
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CHAPTER 3 - RIDERSHIP POTENTIAL SUM
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Chapter 4 TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS INTROD
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CHAPTER 4 - TECHNOLOGY OPITONS Sit
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CHAPTER 4 - TECHNOLOGY OPITONS Sit
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CHAPTER 4 - TECHNOLOGY OPITONS subu
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CHAPTER 4 - TECHNOLOGY OPITONS Tabl
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CHAPTER 4 - TECHNOLOGY OPITONS Trai
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CHAPTER 4 - TECHNOLOGY OPITONS FIND
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CHAPTER 5 - COMMUTER RAIL PLAN MINI
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Page 93: Chapter 6 EXPRESS BUS PLANS INTRODU
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Page 99 and 100: CHAPTER 6 - EXPRESS BUS PLANS Table
Page 103 and 104: CHAPTER 6 - EXPRESS BUS PLANS Five
Page 107 and 108: Chapter 7 ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL
Page 109 and 110: CHAPTER 7 - ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIA
Page 111 and 112: CHAPTER 7 - ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIA
Page 113 and 114: Chapter 8 FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC AN
Page 115 and 116: CHAPTER 8 - FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC
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Page 137 and 138: Chapter 9 NEXT STEPS TOWARD IMPLEME
Page 139 and 140: CHAPTER 9 - NEXT STEPS TOWARD IMPLE
Page 141: APPENDICES
Page 144 and 145: APPENDIX A - RIDERSHIP COMPARISONS
Page 147: Appendix B COMMUTER RAIL COSTS Appe
Page 150 and 151: Coffee and water per month 100 Annu
Page 152 and 153: Advertising per month 4,000 Telecom
Page 154 and 155: Table B-2b Omaha Suburban Station E
Page 156 and 157: Table B-2d Lincoln at N. 48th St. S
Page 158 and 159: Table B-3a Lincoln Maintenance Faci
Page 160 and 161: Table B-4a Melia Siding Description
Page 162 and 163: Table B-4c Chalco Siding Descriptio
Page 165 and 166: Table C-1 Fremont Park-and-Ride Cos
Page 167: Appendix D NTRAC MEMBERS The follow
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