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NTRAC Final Study - Nebraska Department of Roads - State of ...

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CHAPTER 8 – FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC EVALUATION<br />

Overview <strong>of</strong> Analytical Framework and Data<br />

Framework for Comparison<br />

In order to estimate the benefits <strong>of</strong> highway-to-rail/bus traffic diversions, it is necessary to<br />

compare conditions for two scenarios. In the null case, no traffic is diverted from <strong>Nebraska</strong><br />

highways to trains and buses. Both passenger travelers drive I-80, US 275, NE 133, etc. The<br />

null case is the benchmark against which all traffic diversion scenarios are analyzed.<br />

In a diversion scenario, a portion <strong>of</strong> the projected 2010 highway traffic is shifted to railroad and<br />

bus modes. Train and bus riders are compared to drivers in the null case. Benefits are estimated<br />

from changes in accidents, traveler costs, and congestion.<br />

Comparisons between modes are made using average or marginal costs. Marginal cost is the<br />

change in cost associated with a small change in travel activity. Marginal costs are typically<br />

measured on a vehicle-mile <strong>of</strong> travel (VMT) basis. For some impacts, marginal cost estimates<br />

are not available for various modes, i.e. car, bus, commuter train, and intercity train. In these<br />

cases, the average cost <strong>of</strong> each mode is used in the comparison.<br />

To both simplify the presentation and show the savings in the best possible light, total savings<br />

are calculated using the assumption <strong>of</strong> the high end <strong>of</strong> the ridership range. Economic savings<br />

generated by the low end <strong>of</strong> the ridership range would naturally be less. While the calculations<br />

are shown to the dollar, allowing the reader to “do the math”, realistically, the figures should be<br />

considered approximate.<br />

Primary Data Sources<br />

The primary sources <strong>of</strong> data used in the impact analysis are:<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<strong>Nebraska</strong> <strong>Department</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Roads</strong> statewide accident rates per section for Interstate, fourlane,<br />

and two-lane highways<br />

Comparative statistics from Iowa<br />

Accident statistics from Highway Statistics 1994, Federal Highway Administration<br />

(FHWA)<br />

The Economic Cost <strong>of</strong> Motor Vehicle Crashes - 1994, National Highway Traffic Safety<br />

Administration<br />

The Economic Impact <strong>of</strong> Motor Vehicle Crashes - 2002, National Highway Traffic<br />

Safety Administration<br />

Marginal unit costs <strong>of</strong> highway travel from the 1997 Federal Highway Cost Allocation<br />

<strong>Study</strong>: <strong>Final</strong> Report <strong>of</strong> the Federal Highway Administration<br />

Rail passenger safety data from Amtrak as reported by the Federal Railroad<br />

Administration<br />

Vehicle operating cost data from the American Automobile Association<br />

384180<br />

NEBRASKA TRANSIT CORRIDORS STUDY<br />

Page 8 - 15<br />

WILBUR SMITH ASSOCIATES

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