NTRAC Final Study - Nebraska Department of Roads - State of ...

CHAPTER 3 – RIDERSHIP POTENTIAL
Rail shares of total 2010 work trips were derived from commuter rail shares currently
realized in comparable markets. Such shares are commonly referred to as rail and bus
capture rates.
The Metropolitan Area Planning Agency (MAPA) provided employment estimates by
postal zip code in the Omaha area. Given assumptions about station stops, this information
helped to estimate the percentage of work trips from Lincoln that might be served by rail.
The City of Lincoln provided information on office and retail space concentrations. This
information helped to estimate the percentage of work trips from Omaha that might be
served by rail.
From Lincoln to Omaha
The most promising commuter rail potential is from Lincoln to Omaha. Running on the
Burlington Northern and Santa Fe Railway (BNSF) main line, this service could generate a low
of about 78,000 passenger trips per year and a high of about 116,000 annual passenger trips in
2010. Key assumptions include:
Two peak period round trips each weekday; no weekend service.
Termini of the Lincoln Depot and the Amtrak Omaha station.
A Giles Road station, near I-80, serving work centers in southwestern Omaha; and a
suburban station in northwest Lincoln.
A capture rate of 6 percent applied to work trips, as shown in Table 2-1; 6 percent is
consistent with rail shares experienced by Altamont Commuter Express (ACE) and
Caltrain in Northern California 1 . ACE has a service level of three round trips operated
during peak commute period – a service level that is comparable to that envisioned for
Omaha-Lincoln commuter rail service.
An additional 10 percent in weekday trips to account for casual or non-work trips.
Growth rates for work trips to 2010 that reflect the growth that occurred in work trips
between 1990 and 2000.
Convenient transit connections in Omaha (either public or private) to move riders
efficiently from trains to work centers within two to three miles of each station.
Typical fares for commuter rail. Higher and lower fares would impact capture.
Table 3-1 shows the range in estimated rail work trips for 2010. City-to-city work trips were
derived from the 2000 Census county-to-county calculations. The city-to-city trips were further
refined into subsets representing trips terminating within a 2 to 3-mile radius of the station
area(s); such a radius is the maximum that passengers are likely to ride a connecting shuttle from
1 ACE operates three inbound trains on a 76-mile trip between Stockton and San Jose, California. The route is paralleled by
Interstate highways, which suffer frequent congestion. Capture rates averaged about 4 percent for trips between 13 and 40
miles long. Longer trips tend to have higher capture rates. For a service running about 40 or more miles with two peak period
round trips, a capture rate of 6 percent would appear reasonable. A review of Caltrain commute ridership on the San Francisco
Peninsula also bears out the correlation of travel distances and capture rates and validates a 6 percent capture rate for a 40+
mile trip. Capture rate analyses for both ACE and Caltrain appear in Appendix Tables A-1 and A-2.
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WILBUR SMITH ASSOCIATES