NTRAC Final Study - Nebraska Department of Roads - State of ...

CHAPTER 3 – RIDERSHIP POTENTIAL
EXPRESS BUS RIDERSHIP
Peak period, limited stop service typifies commuter or express bus service. Presently, there is no
commuter transit between Lincoln and Omaha, and other markets, per se. To understand what
the ridership potential for a commuter bus service might be like, this analysis considered the
shares currently realized by a comparable commuter bus operation. Golden Gate Transit (GGT)
in Sonoma and Marin Counties, just north of San Francisco, carries about 2 percent of the work
trip market 4 . The service moves commuters between semi-rural, suburban, and urban centers
linked by a major highway.
Omaha/Lincoln Commuter Bus Ridership Potential
Commuter bus operations in the Omaha and Lincoln areas would occur on less congested
corridors (compared with the U.S. Highway 101 through Sonoma and Marin Counties) with
limited pay parking (likely less than at Marin County destinations). As highway congestion and
pay parking tend to drive ridership, it would be reasonable to assume a capture rate of about 1
percent for work trips (less than for GGT). This percentage is applied to low-high range of
county-to-county work trips for 2010 to estimate commute bus ridership in Table 3-3. Derived
from 2000 Census figures, the 2010 county-to-county journey to work totals serve the base target
market, as commute buses can gather and distribute riders in a wider spectrum versus rail, which
is more limited in these respects due to its station locations and fixed guideway. Ridership totals
are increased by 10 percent to reflect non-work trips. Estimates are for weekday service only.
As with rail ridership, the largest market is between the Lincoln and Omaha areas. The smallest
market is between Otoe County and the Omaha area.
Gretna Bus Ridership
The commuter bus forecast in Table 3-3 is exclusive of ridership generated by a mid-route stop
at Gretna and special event traffic. The estimate of Gretna riders bound for Omaha is about 45
percent of what are estimated for rail, i.e. 800 riders on the high side and 1,000 riders on the low
side in 2010. Forty-five percent was used because estimated bus ridership Lincoln to Omaha is
about 45 percent of the estimated rail ridership. As with commuter rail ridership, Gretna-Lincoln
ridership is part of Omaha-Lincoln ridership.
Special Event bus ridership
As with DMUs, express buses could be deployed for special events which would add ridership.
However, if federal funds were used to purchase these buses, the funding may constrain the use
of the buses for special event runs, assuming that there is a commercial bus service providing the
same service. This is because the provision may be perceived as unfair competition for a charter
bus service. Should there be no such commercial service, there would be no such conflict. Still,
since federal funding could be an eligible source for implementing express buses (see Chapter 8),
this analysis assumes no special events ridership for the express buses.
4 In 2000, GGT carried 1,250 of the 62,000 south bound work trips (the traditional flow), per “Marin / Sonoma Express Bus
Study, Metropolitan Transportation Commission”, January 2002.
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NEBRASKA TRANSIT CORRIDORS STUDY
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WILBUR SMITH ASSOCIATES