Low (web) Quality - BALTEX

81
Figure 3. Distributions of 100 warmest days for
different PRUDENCE regions. Red lines correspond
to the high MOC period, blue lines to the low MOC
years. The black curves show the results for ten
randomly chosen 20-years periods. The unit of the x-
axes is degrees Celsius.
In order to investigate the potential predictability induced by
variations in the NAO and ENSO, we introduce a measure
for extremal dependence and explore correlations between
anomalous NAO or ENSO years with temperature or
precipitation extremes in the different PRUDENCE regions.
Furthermore, storm track statistics are calculated for the
periods exhibiting high/low MOC and ENSO indices, and
the role of soil moisture as a memory-inducing factor for
seasonal forecasts is explored.
References
Brönnimann S., E. Xoplaki, C. Casty, A. Pauling, J.
Luterbacher, ENSO influence on Europe during the last
centuries, Climate Dynamics, 28, pp. 181-197, 2007
Pohlmann H., F. Sienz, M. Latif, Influence of the
multidecadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning
circulation variability on European climate, Journal of
Climate,19, pp. 6062-6067, 2006
Schär Ch., P.L. Vidale, D. Lüthi, Ch. Frei, Ch. Häberli, M.
A. Liniger, Ch. Appenzeller, The role of increasing
temperature variability in European summer heatwaves,
Nature, 427, pp. 332-336, 2004
Van Oldenborgh G.J., How unusual was autumn 2006 in
Europe, Climate of the Past, 3, pp. 659-668, 2007