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50 References Biau. G., E. Zorita, H. von Storch, and H. Wackernagel, Estimation of precipitation by kriging in the EOF space of the sea level pressure field. J. Climate, 12, 1070-1085, 1999. Cressman. G. P., An operational objective analysis system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 87. 367-374, 1959. Willmott. C. J., C. M. Rowe, and W. D. Philpot, Smallscale climate maps: A sensitivity analysis of some common assumptions associated with grid-point interpolation and contouring. Amer. Cartogr., 12, 5- 16, 1985.
51 Regional modelling of climate and extremes in southeast China Laurent Li(1), Weilin Chen(2) and Zhihong Jiang(2) (1) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, CNRS/IPSL, Université Paris VI, France, li@lmd.jussieu.fr (2) Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, China A variable-grid atmospheric general circulation model, LMDZ, with a local zoom over southeast China is used as a traditional regional model to investigate climate changes in terms of both mean and extremes. This regional version of LMDZ can also be interactively coupled to the global version of LMDZ in a two-way nesting manner. Two time slices of 30 years are chosen to represent respectively the end of the 20th century and the middle of the 21st century. The boundary conditions were taken from the outputs of three global coupled climate models. An evaluation of the simulated temperature and precipitation for the current climate shows that in general LMDZ reproduces well the spatial distribution of mean climate and extremes in southeast China, but the model has systematic cold bias in temperature and tends to overestimate the extreme precipitation. Scenario results show that in all seasons there is a significant increase for mean, maximum and minimum temperature in the entire region, associated with a decrease in the number of frost days and with an increase in the heat wave duration. The magnitudes and main spatial patterns of the changes in temperature extremes show a quite good consistency among the three global scenarios. A warming environment also gives rise to changes in extreme precipitation events. Precipitation extremes increase over most of southeast China, in a quite consistent manner among the three global scenarios Fig. 1: Annual-mean precipitation rate (mm/day) in the global model (left), in the regional model driven by the global model (middle), and in the regional model operated interactively with the global model (right). Fig.2: As in Fig.1, but for changes of precipitation (2050-2000).
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2 nd International Lund RCM Worksho
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Associated Organisations ENSEMBLES
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Preface This Second Lund Regional-s
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II High-resolution dynamical downsc
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IV Investigation of added value at
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VI Soil organic layer: Implications
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VIII Session 4: Regional Observatio
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X Predicting water resources in Wes
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XII The impact of atmospheric therm
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XIV Observation and simulation with
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XVI Favot F .......................
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Page 28 and 29: 2 5. Influence of SN on the Ensembl
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Page 32 and 33: 6 Dynamical downscaling: Assessment
Page 34 and 35: 8 Improvement of long-term integrat
Page 36 and 37: 10 air temperature annual cycle (Fi
Page 38 and 39: 12 Sensitivity study of CRCM-simula
Page 40 and 41: 14 Regional precipitation anomalies
Page 42 and 43: 16 Assessment of precipitation as s
Page 44 and 45: 18 The Asian summer monsoon in ERA4
Page 46 and 47: 20 Added value of limited area mode
Page 48 and 49: 22 Sensitivity of CRCM basin annual
Page 50 and 51: 24 High-resolution dynamical downsc
Page 52 and 53: 26 There is nevertheless a large ag
Page 54 and 55: 28 technique, as it is based on the
Page 56 and 57: 30 4. Heating mechanism In order to
Page 58 and 59: 32 The geographical distribution of
Page 60 and 61: 34 The CCM scheme reveals a distinc
Page 62 and 63: 36 Performance of pattern scaling i
Page 64 and 65: 38 Evaluation of the analyzed large
Page 66 and 67: 40 Sensitivity studies with a stati
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Page 70 and 71: 44 are however occasional episodes
Page 72 and 73: 46 this season, as well as the high
Page 74 and 75: 48 Figure 1. Precipitation rate (mm
Page 78 and 79: 52 Investigation of regional climat
Page 80 and 81: 54 Selected examples of the added v
Page 82 and 83: 56 The climate change in Europe sim
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Page 90 and 91: 64 3. Results Fig. 2 shows the anal
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Page 96 and 97: Figure 2. Same as in Fig.1 but for
Page 98 and 99: 72 Will, A., M. Baldauf, B. Rockel,
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Page 102 and 103: 76 Investigation of precipitation o
Page 104 and 105: 78 Impacts of the spectral nudging
Page 106 and 107: 80 Extremes and predictability in t
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Page 110 and 111: 84 Figure 3: As Figure 1 but for Wi
Page 112 and 113: 86 The models capture this pattern
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Page 117 and 118: 91 Examining the relative roles con
Page 119 and 120: 93 Dynamical coupling of the HIRHAM
Page 121 and 122: 95 A parameterization of aircraft i
Page 123 and 124: 97 Stratospheric variability and it
Page 125 and 126: 99 Effects of numerical methods on
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101 Development of a climate model
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103 Study of the capability of the
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105 Evaluation of the land surface
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107 Simulation of the precipitation
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109 Climate simulations over North
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111 Soil organic layer: Implication
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113 4. Results The method how to do
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115 Figure 1. Observed (a) and simu
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117 Evaluation of the Rossby Centre
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119 Simulating aerosols in the regi
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121 Moisture availability and the r
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123 Temperature and precipitation s
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125 4. Preliminary results for down
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127 a) Knutson, T.R., J.J. Sirutis,
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129 Effects of variations in climat
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131 3.2. Precipitation The ensemble
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133 knowledge is essential to asses
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135 pronounced biases in the simula
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137 variability was concentrated at
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139 Investigation of ‘Hurricane K
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141 Evaluation of seasonal forecast
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143 NASH J. E., SUTCLIFFE J. V., 19
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145 Climate change assessment over
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147 For relative operating characte
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149 responsible for the excessive s
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151 and 30km). Domains D1 (90 and 6
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153 can be seen in Fig. 2, where th
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155 High-resolution simulation of a
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157 MesoClim - A mesoscale alpine c
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159 Observed and modeled extremes i
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161 analyzed the surface wind behav
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163 summer particularly in the Paci
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165 since 01.01.2004. For the Meteo
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167 Wind, m/s 12 10 8 6 4 2 Vilsand
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169 heterogeneity. For example, lar
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171 Analysis of surface air tempera
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173 Environmental database and the
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Climate change and water pollution
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177 During summer, winds over the M
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179 followed nearly the correct pat
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181 Verification of simulated near
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183 The North American Regional Cli
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185 An atmosphere-ocean regional cl
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187 different rainfall characterist
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189 with increasing temperature. Mo
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191 Inter-comparison of Asian monso
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193 On the validation of RCMs in te
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195 AMMA-Model Intercomparison Proj
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197 parameterization are used in th
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199 Evaluation of European snow cov
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201 Projections of eastern Mediterr
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203 Atmospheric river induced heavy
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205 CLARIS project: Towards climate
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207 Influence of soil moisture init
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209 Projection of the Changes in th
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211 Regional climate model studies
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213 ENSEMBLES regional climate mode
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215 Assessing the performance of se
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217 Applying the Rossby Centre Regi
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219 Interactions between European s
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221 ALADIN-Climate/CZ simulation of
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223 experiment of recreating the pr
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225 Figure 2. the 10-year averaged
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227 Use of regional climate models
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229 Wave estimations using winds fr
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231 Figure 1. Model domain for the
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233 A coupled regional climate mode
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235 Arctic regional coupled downsca
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237 Convection-resolving regional c
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239 4. Outlook Currently a coupled
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241 distribution within the Netherl
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243 Very high-resolution regional c
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245 Impact of convective parameteri
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247 Development of a regional ocean
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249 Regional climate change impact
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251 River runoff projection of futu
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253 Application of regional-scale c
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255 Local air mass dependence of ex
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257 Impact of vegetation on the sim
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259 Climate change impacts on the w
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261 Influence of soil moisture-near
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263 Forest damage in a changing cli
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265 Future challenges for regional
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267 Linking climate factors and ada
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269 GCMs. In the end of the 21 st c
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271 Climate change impacts on extre
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273 Winter storms with high loss po
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275 The impact of land use change a
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277 6. Analysis of Results (Rain) T
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279 (a) (b) Figure 3. Impact of veg
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281 that cold (Fig. 5). Winter temp
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283 Streamflow in the upper Mississ
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285 Dynamical downscaling of urban
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287 Souma, K., K. Tanaka, E. Nakaki
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289 In April 2000, the fire emissio
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291 Impacts of vegetation on global
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International BALTEX Secretariat Pu
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No. 34: BALTEX Phase II 2003 - 2012
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