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Figure 3. Example of the development of 100-year
floods according to a number of climate scenarios for
River Byskeälven in northern Sweden. The scale is
percent change in relation to the reference period
1961-1990.
4. Future work
Design floods will be carried out for the whole Ensemblesmatrix
of climate scenarios and all the selected test basins
during 2009. The work is carefully monitored by a special
committee with representatives from the dam safety
authority, the power industry, the mining industry and
SMHI. The task of this committee is to recommend how
climate change shall be accounted for in future design
studies. This will have strong impact on future design of
dams but also on the physical planning along the shorelines
in Sweden, as the same flood criteria are used for flood risk
mapping.
In parallel the results will be discussed with colleagues from
Norway, Finland, Iceland, Latvia and Lithuania within the
Climate and Energy Systems project.
5. Acknowledgements
The national research is financed by the Swedish dam safety
authority (Svenska Kraftnät) and the power industry via
Elforsk. The Nordic co-operation, within the CES-project, is
financed by Nordic Energy Research. The scientific
contribution from the Ensembles project, the staff of the
Research department of SMHI and our colleagues within the
CES-project is also gratefully acknowledged.
References
Yang, W., Andréasson, J., Graham, L.P, Olsson, J., Rosberg,
J. och Wetterhall, F. A scaling method for applying RCM
simulations to climate change impact studies in
hydrology. Proceedings from the Nordic Hydrological
Conference - Reykjavík, Iceland, 11-13 August 2008,
Vol.1, pp.256-265, 2008.
Svensk Energi, Svenska Kraftnät och SveMin. Riktlinjer för
bestämning av dimensionerande flöden för dammanläggningar
– Nyutgåva 2007 (Guidelines for the
determination of design floods for Swedish dams – New
edition). 2007.