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28<br />
technique, as it is based on the analysis of model data only,<br />
it can be used the same way for scenarios runs even<br />
reproducing possible changes in these dependencies.<br />
The comparison of the results of reanalysis run and control<br />
run for reference period is presented in Fig. 2 for selected<br />
stations from targeted area after the correction to the real<br />
terrain height for temperature. Although annual bias being<br />
just nearly exactly zero, in monthly data the warm bias of<br />
temperature in GCM driven simulation for colder season is<br />
much higher than for reanalysis driven run, while for<br />
summer season it is opposite.<br />
°C)<br />
4<br />
3<br />
2<br />
1<br />
0<br />
Acknowledgements<br />
This work is supported in framework of EC FP6 STREP<br />
CECILIA (GOCE 037005). Some contributions to the<br />
tasks are supported from local sources as well under<br />
Research Plan of MSMT, No. MSM 0021620860, and in<br />
framework of the project supported by Czech Science<br />
Foundation under No. 205/06/P181. We acknowledge the<br />
E-Obs dataset from the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES<br />
(http://www.ensembles-eu.org) and the data providers in<br />
the ECA&D project (http://eca.knmi.nl).<br />
References<br />
Giorgi, F., M.R. Marinucci, and G.T. Bates, Development<br />
of a second generation regional climate model<br />
(RegCM2). Part I: Boundary layer and radiative<br />
transfer processes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 2794-2813,<br />
1993a.<br />
temperature bias (<br />
-1<br />
-2<br />
-3<br />
-4<br />
RegCM-ECHAM<br />
RegCM-ERA<br />
Year I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII<br />
MONTH<br />
Giorgi, F., M.R. Marinucci, G.T. Bates, and G. DeCanio,<br />
Development of a second generation regional climate<br />
model (RegCM2). Part II: Convective processes and<br />
assimilation of lateral boundary conditions. Mon. Wea.<br />
Rev., 121, 2814-2832, 1993b.<br />
Figure 2. Temperature bias (distribution at 25 Czech<br />
weather stations, after correction for altitude<br />
mismatch, 1961-1990)<br />
4. Future scenarios<br />
Scenarios runs driven by RegCM@25km forced by GCM<br />
ECHAM5 has been performed for 2021-2050 and 2071-<br />
2100 with climate change signal analysis with respect to<br />
control experiment for period 1961-1990. Fig. 3 presents the<br />
preliminary differences based on two decades completed.<br />
Haylock, M.R., N. Hofstra, A.M.G. Klein Tank, E.J. Klok,<br />
P.D. Jones, M. New, A European daily high-resolution<br />
gridded dataset of surface temperature and<br />
precipitation. J. Geophys. Res (Atmospheres), 113,<br />
D20119, doi:10.1029/2008JD10201, 2008.<br />
Huth, R., R. Mládek, L. Metelka, P. Sedlák, Z. Huthová,<br />
S. Kliegrová, J. Kyselý, L. Pokorná, M. Janoušek, T.<br />
Halenka, On the integrability of limited-area<br />
numerical weather prediction model ALADIN over<br />
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873, 2003.<br />
Figure 3. Changes 2021-2040 (left panels) and 2071-2089 (right panels) against CTRL1961-1970 for<br />
temperature (upper panels) and precipitation (lower panels).