218 5. Future climate We will compare the simulated climate in the 20 th century to observational climatologies. Focus is on evaluating the ability of the combination HadCM3-RCA3 to simulate aspects of the atmospheric circulation in the area and the associated rainfall patterns and their seasonal migration. In a next step it will be illustrated how these aspects change in a changing climate and to what degree the regional climate model alters the signal given by the global model. 6. Acknowledgements This work is part of the ENSEMBLES project funded by the EC through contract GOCE-CT-2003-505539. The Hadley Centre is acknowledged for providing boundary data. The model simulations with RCA3 were performed on the climate computing resource Tornado funded with a grant from the Knut and Alice Wallenberg foundation. References Bechtold P., Bazile E., Guichard F., Mascart P. and Richard E. 2001: A mass-flux convection scheme for regional and global models. Quarterly Journal Royal Meteorological Society. 127. 869-886. Christensen, J.H. et al., 2007: Regional Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Collins et al, 2006, Clim. Dyn., DOI 10.1007/s00382-006- 0121-0 Cook K.-H. and E.K. Vizy, 2006: Coupled Model Simulations of the West African Monsoon System: 20th century Simulations and 21st Century Predictions. J. Climate, 19, 3681-3703. Cuxart, J., Bougeault, Ph. and Redelsperger, J-L., 2000. A turbulences scheme allowing for mesoscale and large eddy simulations. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 126, 1-30. Hewitt, C.D and Griggs, D.J., 2004: Ensembles-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts. Eos, 85, 566. Jacob, D. et al., 2007. An inter-comparison of regional climate models for Europe: Design of the experiments and model performance. Climatic Change. 81, 31-52. doi:10007/s10584-006-9213-4. Jones C.G. and Sanchez, E., 2002. The representation of shallow cumulus convection and associated cloud fields in the Rossby Centre Atmospheric Model. HIRLAM Newsletter 41, Available on request from SMHI, S- 60176 Norrköping, Sweden. Kain, J.S. and J.M. Fritsch, 1993. Convective parameterizations for Mesoscale Models: The Kain- Fritsch scheme. In: The representation of cumulus convection in numerical models, Eds: K.A. Emanuel and D.J. Raymond. AMS Monograph, 46, 246 pp. Kjellström, E., Bärring, L., Gollvik, S., Hansson, U., Jones, C., Samuelsson, P., Rummukainen, M., Ullerstig, A., Willén U. and Wyser, K., 2005. A 140-year simulation of European climate with the new version of the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model (RCA3). Reports Meteorology and Climatology 108, SMHI, SE-60176 Norrköping, Sweden, 54 pp. Ljungemyr P., Gustafsson N. and Omstedt A., 1996. Parameterization of lake thermodynamics in a high resolution weather forecasting model. Tellus, 48A, 608–621. Masson, V., J.L. Champeaux, F. Chauvin, C. Mériguet and R. Lacaze, 2003, A global database of land surface parameters at 1km resolution for use in meteorological and climate models. J. Climate, 16, pp 1261-1282. Mironov D.V. 2008. Parameterization of lakes in numerical weather prediction. Description of a lake model. COSMO Technical Report, No. 11, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach am Main, Germany, 41 pp. Nakićenović, N., Alcamo, J., Davis, G., de Vries, B., Fenhann, J., Gaffin, S., Gregory, K., Grübler, A., et al., 2000. Emission scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, 599 pp. Rasch, P.J. and Kristjansson, J.E., 1998. A comparison of the CCM3 model climate using diagnosed and predicted condensate parameterisations, J. Climate, 11, 1587-1614. Redelsperger, J.L., Thorncroft, C., Diedhiou, A., Lebel, T., Parker, D.J. and J. Polcher (2006): African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA): An International Research Project and Field Campaign. Published in BAMS, Volume 87, Issue 12 (December 2006) , pp. 1739–1746. Samuelsson, P., Gollvik, S. and Ullerstig, A. 2006. The land-surface scheme of the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model (RCA3). SMHI Meteorologi No 122 . 25 pp. Sanchez-Gomez E., Somot S. and Déqué M., 2008: Ability of an ensemble of regional climate models to reproduce weather regimes over Europe-Atlantic during the period 1961-2000, Clim. Dyn., 10.1007/s00382-008-0502-7. Sass B.H., Rontu L., Savijärvi H., Räisänen P., 1994. HIRLAM-2 Radiation scheme: Documentation and tests. Hirlam technical report No 16., SMHI. SE-601 76 Norrköping, Sweden, 43 pp. Savijärvi H., 1990. A fast radiation scheme for mesoscale model and short-range forecast models. J. Appl. Met., 29, 437-447. Trenberth, K.E., P.D. Jones, P. Ambenje, R. Bojariu, D. Easterling, A. Klein Tank, D. Parker, F. Rahimzadeh, J.A. Renwick, M. Rusticucci, B. Soden and P. Zhai, 2007: Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
219 Interactions between European shelves and the Atlantic simulated with a coupled regional atmosphere-ocean-biogeochemistry model Dmitry V. Sein, Joachim Segschneider, Uwe Mikolajewicz and Ernst Maier-Reimer Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany; dimitry.sein@zmaw.de 1. Introduction In the framework of NORDATLANTIK project the numerical investigations of interactions of the water masses on the European shelves with the Atlantic were carried out. A regionally coupled model consists of the regional atmosphere model REMO, the global ocean model MPI-OM and the marine biogeochemical model HAMOCC, which simulates biogeochemical tracers in the oceanic water column and in the sediment (Mikolajewicz et al. 2005, Maier-Reimer et al. 2005). The coupled domain includes Europe, the North-East Atlantic and parts of the Arctic Ocean (Fig.1). The lateral atmospheric and the upper oceanic boundary conditions outside the coupled domain were prescribed using ERA40 reanalysis data. No momentum and heat flux corrections was applied. 2. Model simulations For better understanding of the influence of tidal dynamics on long term ocean variability the model was run both with (run A) and without (run B) tidal forcing, derived from the full ephemeridic luni-solar tidal potential . Figure 2. Tidal influence on SST. The difference in mean SST (C) between run A and B 3. Biogeochemistry The biogeochemical model HAMOCC5 has been spun-up with anthropogenic CO2 concentrations starting in 1860 and using atmospheric forcing from the ERA40 reanalysis. For years before 1958, the forcing was repeated in several cycles beginning in 1860, so as to prevent a model drift for 1958 when the reanalyzed data become available. Therefore, physical conditions before 1958 deviate from the true state, whereas after 1958 they correspond to the true state within the usual limitations (model errors, forcing errors etc.). Figure 1. Coupled REMO/MPI-OM configuration. The red rectangle indicates the domain of coupling. Only every fourth line of the formally global ocean grid is shown (black line) The “dynamical” effect of tides on the mean North Atlantic circulation leads to a small reduction of the mean current in the open ocean and an amplification along the North European shelf edge. Tidally induced mixing leads to a reduction of North Atlantic SST. However, warming (up to 3K ) occurs near the amphidromic points of the M2 and S2 tidal constituents near Iceland and in the middle of the North Atlantic (Fig.2). Figure 3. Time series of oceanic pCO2 (top) as global mean (black line) and for the North Sea and Baltic (red line) and oceanic uptake of CO 2 in GtC/a (bottom) The simulated increase in oceanic pCO2 is shown in Fig. 3 as global average (black curve) and averaged over the
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2 nd International Lund RCM Worksho
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Associated Organisations ENSEMBLES
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Preface This Second Lund Regional-s
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II High-resolution dynamical downsc
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IV Investigation of added value at
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VI Soil organic layer: Implications
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VIII Session 4: Regional Observatio
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X Predicting water resources in Wes
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XII The impact of atmospheric therm
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14 Regional precipitation anomalies
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18 The Asian summer monsoon in ERA4
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20 Added value of limited area mode
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30 4. Heating mechanism In order to
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48 Figure 1. Precipitation rate (mm
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50 References Biau. G., E. Zorita,
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52 Investigation of regional climat
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64 3. Results Fig. 2 shows the anal
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72 Will, A., M. Baldauf, B. Rockel,
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74 ( ) with i = 1,K,n; j = 1,K,m;
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82 Large-scale skill in regional cl
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86 The models capture this pattern
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91 Examining the relative roles con
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93 Dynamical coupling of the HIRHAM
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95 A parameterization of aircraft i
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99 Effects of numerical methods on
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101 Development of a climate model
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103 Study of the capability of the
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105 Evaluation of the land surface
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107 Simulation of the precipitation
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109 Climate simulations over North
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111 Soil organic layer: Implication
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113 4. Results The method how to do
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115 Figure 1. Observed (a) and simu
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117 Evaluation of the Rossby Centre
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119 Simulating aerosols in the regi
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121 Moisture availability and the r
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123 Temperature and precipitation s
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125 4. Preliminary results for down
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127 a) Knutson, T.R., J.J. Sirutis,
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129 Effects of variations in climat
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131 3.2. Precipitation The ensemble
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133 knowledge is essential to asses
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135 pronounced biases in the simula
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137 variability was concentrated at
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139 Investigation of ‘Hurricane K
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141 Evaluation of seasonal forecast
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143 NASH J. E., SUTCLIFFE J. V., 19
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145 Climate change assessment over
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149 responsible for the excessive s
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151 and 30km). Domains D1 (90 and 6
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153 can be seen in Fig. 2, where th
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155 High-resolution simulation of a
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157 MesoClim - A mesoscale alpine c
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159 Observed and modeled extremes i
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161 analyzed the surface wind behav
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163 summer particularly in the Paci
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165 since 01.01.2004. For the Meteo
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269 GCMs. In the end of the 21 st c
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271 Climate change impacts on extre
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273 Winter storms with high loss po
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275 The impact of land use change a
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279 (a) (b) Figure 3. Impact of veg
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281 that cold (Fig. 5). Winter temp
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283 Streamflow in the upper Mississ
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285 Dynamical downscaling of urban
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287 Souma, K., K. Tanaka, E. Nakaki
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289 In April 2000, the fire emissio
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291 Impacts of vegetation on global
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International BALTEX Secretariat Pu
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No. 34: BALTEX Phase II 2003 - 2012