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38<br />
Evaluation of the analyzed large-scale features in a global data assimilation<br />
system due to different convective parameterization scheme and their<br />
impact on downscaled climatology using a RCM<br />
Jung-Eun Kim and Song-You Hong<br />
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea, japril@yonsei.ac.kr<br />
1. Introduction<br />
Despite the successful application of the RCMs to<br />
dynamical downscaling for climate change assessement and<br />
seasonal climate predictions, the regional predictability and<br />
the evaluation of added values to the GCM outputs are still<br />
not clarified. As reviewed by Giorgi et al. (2001), Leung et<br />
al. (2003), and Wang et al. (2004), the errors in the<br />
downscaled regional climate within a nested RCM result<br />
from the 1) uncertainties in the large-scale fields driven by<br />
GCM and the related unphysical treatment of the lateral<br />
boundary conditions, 2) inaccuracies in the physics and<br />
dynamics in the RCM, and 3) inconsistency between the<br />
regional and global models in dynamics and physics. The<br />
treatment of the lateral boundary conditions, the physics and<br />
dynamics in the RCM has significantly been improved by<br />
the RCM community. However, the first and fourth issues<br />
are still open to the questions.<br />
The skill of an RCM in dynamical downscaling applications<br />
is highly dependent upon the skill of the driving GCM.<br />
However, substantial differences among several reanalysis<br />
datasets, in particular, in the lower-atmospheric circulations<br />
and water vapor flux, lead to another complexity in<br />
improving the RCM (Annamalai et al. 1999). The<br />
consistency between the GCM and RCM is even difficulty<br />
issue to explore since the physics package between the two<br />
models is usually not consistent. These two issues are rather<br />
clear in future development of the RCM, but the uncertainty<br />
due to the inconsistency in the internal forcing due to<br />
physical parameterizations has to be explored to clarify the<br />
RCM’s predictability. Our study aims to explore the impact<br />
on the regional downscaling embedded within large-scale<br />
climate information due to different convective<br />
parameterization scheme<br />
2. Experimental Design<br />
The predicted large-scale features are obtained by the<br />
perfect large-scale experiments runs (GDAS) that are forced<br />
by an analyzed data. The National Centers for<br />
Environmental Prediction (NCEP) regional spectral model<br />
(RSM) is used in this study for downscaling. A detailed<br />
model description is provided by Juang et al. (1997). To<br />
discuss the uncertainty due to the inconsistency of different<br />
cumulus convective parameterization scheme, two<br />
sensitivity experiments are conducted; the simplified<br />
Arakawa-Schubert (SAS; Hong and Pan 1998) and<br />
community-climate model (CCM; Zhang and McPhalane<br />
1995) schemes. The summer of 2004 was selected in this<br />
study, which recorded a near-normal seasonal precipitation<br />
in East Asia (Fig.1a).<br />
3. Result<br />
Figures 1b and 1c show the JJA precipitation from the CCM<br />
and SAS experiments in GDAS, respectively. It is seen that<br />
both runs reproduce the observed precipitation well. Over<br />
land, the local maxima in central China, Korea, and southern<br />
Japan, are commonly captured, irrespective of the<br />
convection scheme in the GDAS. Oceanic precipitation<br />
over the sub-tropics is fairly well simulated. Precipitation<br />
in Mongolia and Siberia is excessive when the CCM<br />
scheme is used in the GDAS run. The pattern correlation<br />
of JJA precipitation is 0.52 and 0.70, for CCM and SAS<br />
experiments, respectively.<br />
(b) Gccm<br />
(a) GPCP<br />
(c) Gsas<br />
Figure 1. (a) Observed JJA accumulated rainfall<br />
from GPCP and the simulated precipitation (mm)<br />
from (b) CCM and (c) SAS runs in GDAS.<br />
(a) Gc_Rc<br />
(c) Gs_Rc<br />
(b) Gc_Rs<br />
(d) Gs_Rs<br />
Figure 2. Simulated 3-month (JJA) accumulated<br />
precipitation (mm) from RCM experiments forced<br />
by GDAS.<br />
Figure 2 shows that the distribution pattern of downscaled<br />
precipitation using the RCM depends more on the<br />
convection scheme in the RCM, rather than that used in<br />
the mother-domain experiments. An excessive<br />
precipitation over the southern China and East China Sea<br />
regions is commonly observed when the CCM scheme in