T.F. Green Airport Improvement Program - FEIS Chapters - PVD

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T.F. Green Airport Improvement ProgramEnvironmental Impact Statement and Final Section 4(f) Evaluation2.2.1 Passenger and Aircraft ActivityLow cost carriers (LCCs) have had an influential role on the passenger demand at T.F. Green Airport and theNew England region. Between 1990 and 2004, air passenger traffic at T.F. Green Airport grew 132 percent from2.4 million passengers 27 in 1990 to 5.5 million in 2004. 28 After a decrease in aviation passenger demand nationwidedue to economic conditions in 2008-2009, refined long-term forecasts continue to anticipate modest growth in airpassenger traffic at T.F. Green Airport and the New England region. Air passenger demand at the Airport ispredicted to reach approximately 5.8 million passengers by 2020, which is consistent with FAA aviation forecastsavailable at the time of the FEIS analysis. 292.2.1.1 Role of Low Cost Carriers at T.F. Green AirportSouthwest Airlines’ inauguration of LCC services from T.F. Green Airport in 1996 caused a period of increasedgrowth of air traffic. This initially resulted both from the capture of passengers who had previously usedLogan Airport and shifted to T.F. Green Airport to take advantage of the lower fares offered by the LCC, andthrough altogether new traffic generated by the so-called “Southwest effect”. The key concept of the “Southwesteffect” is that when a LCC enters a market, the market itself changes, and demand usually grows dramatically dueto the introduction of lower airfares that induces passenger demand for recreational and other discretionary travelas well as some additional business travel.However, the recent increase in LCC service, 30 coupled with new non-stop West Coast market offerings by LCCs atLogan Airport, and competition for legacy carriers 31 has caused shifts in air traffic from T.F. Green Airport. Forexample, some passengers are choosing to fly out of Logan Airport instead of T.F. Green Airport to take advantage ofnon-stop flights to specific markets, even though some of these passengers live within T.F. Green Airport’s primaryservice or catchment area. Also, in May 2011 Southwest Airlines finalized its acquisition of AirTran Airways, anotherLCC that provides service at Logan Airport. However, it is unclear at this time how the merger would affectSouthwest Airlines service at T.F. Green or Logan Airports.While LCCs are very strong in today’s national market, legacy air carriers are restructuring and cutting costs so thattheir business models are likely to become more in line with those of the LCCs. The anticipated competition betweenthe legacy carriers and LCCs will add to the volatility of the market, influence low fares, and service choices. Federallaw allows air carriers’ access to commercial service markets of their choice, where appropriate facilities are available.Because the business models of the airlines are in constant flux, an airport must remain flexible in the types offacilities it provides to accommodate various aircraft types and routes for air carriers.2.2.1.2 ForecastsAviation activity forecasts are the basis for determining facility requirements and evaluation of potentialdevelopment alternatives. Forecasts are based on a variety of factors, including historical trends, examination ofexisting and anticipated economic, technological, and other operating considerations. They reflect an expertise andinformed context for projecting anticipated demand levels in order to conduct appropriate mid- and long-term27 The term “passengers” refers to enplaned (departing) and deplaned (arriving) passengers.28 T.F. Green Airport – Monthly Airport Passenger Activity Summary, Rhode Island Airport Corporation, December 2004.29 Draft Terminal Area Forecasts, FAA, 2010 (see Appendix E.1, Updated Forecast of Aviation Activity). 30 LCCs operating at Logan include Southwest Airlines, JetBlue, AirTran Airways, Spirit Airlines, and Virgin America.31 Legacy carriers are airlines that flew interstate routes prior to the Airline Deregulation Act of 1978.Chapter 2 – Purpose and Need 2-4 July 2011\\mawatr\ev\09228.00\reports\FEIS_Final_July_2011\PVD_CH02_P&N_JUL_2011.doc
T.F. Green Airport Improvement ProgramEnvironmental Impact Statement and Final Section 4(f) Evaluationfacility improvement planning and development. Aviation activity forecasts were prepared for T.F. Green Airportas part of a strategic master planning process to guide anticipated development at the Airport. The forecast andsubsequent development of alternatives to address facility needs are initial steps in the planning process. Thesesteps are designed to allow RIAC to respond adequately with new efficiency-related facilities (e.g., automobileparking facilities) to be implemented when they are necessary as the anticipated aviation demand materializes,and not after the fact when demand already exceeds capacity, resulting in operating inefficiencies. Airport safetyprojects, such as those comprising part of the T.F. Green Airport Improvement Program, do not rely on existing orforecast aviation demand levels for justification. The need for airport safety-related projects is based on meetingFAA airport design standards.The original forecast of aviation activity developed for this EIS was based on realistic assumptions andmethodologies at the time it was developed in 2004. FAA Orders 5050.4B and 1050.1E require the use of the latestavailable planning information at the time the NEPA process starts. The FAA confirmed that the original EISforecast developed in 2004 was consistent with the latest published FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) when theEIS process began in 2005. 32 The forecast was demand-oriented because it considered the availability of servicesfrom the Airport as well as the two other major airports serving the eastern New England region (Logan andManchester Airports), and the differences in ticket prices and services offered at the three airports. The forecastalso represented the aircraft operational demand and passenger demand with T.F. Green Airport’s currentfacilities. The forecast estimated that total passengers using T.F. Green Airport would increase from 5.5 million in2004 to approximately 9 million by 2020 (and 10.4 million by 2025). Aircraft operations were predicted to increasefrom 121,428 in 2004 to 152,275 by 2020 (and 164,035 by 2025).Since the aviation activity forecast was originally prepared in 2004, the national and global economic recessionoccurred in 2008-2009 and affected overall aviation demand. FAA Orders 5050.4B and 1050.1E require that thesponsor and FAA consider new information regarding national, regional or site specific aviation trends that couldaffect the project purpose and need developed for the EIS after the start of the NEPA process. Indicators of aviationtrends include the annual TAF for the airport, the FAA National Aerospace Forecast, regional-specific economictrends, regional airport system factors, and site-specific restraints to growth.In 2009, the FAA revised the DEIS analysis using a No-Action Alternative forecast consistent with the most recent FAATAF at that time (published in December 2008). 33 After the DEIS was issued in July 2010, actual (historical) andshort-term forecast aviation activity continued to decline. Therefore, the FAA revised the FEIS analysis using aNo-Action Alternative forecast based on the Draft 2010 TAF (October 2010; see Appendix E.1, Updated Forecast ofAviation Activity) , which was the latest forecast information available at the time the FEIS analysis was performed andwas considered to reflect the recent aviation trends. 34 The FEIS forecast is based on the 2010 Draft TAF plus anadditional ten percent for each aircraft operator category and is referred to as the 2010 FEIS No-Action Forecast.32 The Notice of Intent to Prepare and Environmental Impact Statement was published in the Federal Register on January 19, 2005.33 The 2010 No-Action Alternative FEIS Forecast is within 10 percent of FAA TAF passenger forecast (see Appendix E.1, Updated Forecast of Aviation Activity).34 The 2010 Final TAF became available during the latter stages of the FEIS analysis, and differed from the Draft 2010 with lower short-term forecasts. However,FAA evaluated the most recent aviation activity counts recorded by the Air Traffic Control Tower, which were consistent with the 2010 Draft TAF (seeAppendix E.1, Updated Forecast of Aviation Activity).Chapter 2 – Purpose and Need 2-5 July 2011\\mawatr\ev\09228.00\reports\FEIS_Final_July_2011\PVD_CH02_P&N_JUL_2011.doc
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