T.F. Green Airport Improvement Program - FEIS Chapters - PVD

T.F. Green Airport Improvement ProgramEnvironmental Impact Statement and Final Section 4(f) EvaluationAs described in Appendix E.1, Updated Forecast of Aviation Activity, recent and historical trends in the actualnumber of flights at T.F. Green Airport (based on FAA Air Traffic Control Tower data) suggest that theassumptions used in the 2010 FEIS No-Action Forecast (based on the 2010 Draft TAF) are reasonable and that theFEIS forecast remains within acceptable limits of the 2010 Draft TAF.Appendix E.1, Updated Forecast of Aviation Activity, outlines the forecasting assumptions, methodology, and results.All adjustments to forecasts used in this EIS took into account variations in forecast demand relative to specificaircraft operators identified in the TAF (air carrier, scheduled air taxi, unscheduled air taxi, general aviation, andmilitary), as described further in Section 3.9.2, FEIS Impact Analysis. Table 2-2 summarizes the 2010 FEIS Forecastfor the No-Action Alternative, which serves as the base forecast for the FEIS environmental analysis, and theIncremental Build Alternative Forecast, which accounts for the additional operations and passengers anticipatedwith the proposed runway extension. The 2010 FEIS Total Build Alternative Forecast includes the base 2010 FEISNo-Action Alternative Forecast and the Incremental Build Alternative Forecast.Table 2-22010 FEIS No-Action Alternative and Build Forecast SummaryNo-Action Incremental Build Total BuildAircraft Annual Aircraft Annual Aircraft AnnualYear Operations 1 Passengers Operations 1 Passengers Operations 1 Passengers2004 2 121,428 5,509,186 n/a n/a n/a n/a2015 3 93,500 5,274,876 4 8,760 765,727 102,260 6,040,6032020 99,330 5,844,797 4 8,784 5 767,825 5 108,114 6,612,6222025 105,551 6,519,307 4 8,760 5 831,935 6 114,311 7,351,242n/a = not applicable; 2004 represents existing conditions prior to the implementation of any potential Build Alternative.Sources: 2004 aircraft operations and passengers data provided from T.F. Green Airport – Monthly Airport Passenger Activity Summary, RIAC, December 2004;Forecast aircraft operations and passengers adjusted by Vanasse Hangen Brustlin (2010) from FAA’s Draft Terminal Area Forecast, TAF (2010). Refer toAppendix E.1, Updated Forecast of Aviation Activity.1 Total aircraft operations equal all arrivals and departures.2 Actual recorded operations and passenger activity levels provided from T.F. Green Airport – Monthly Airport Passenger Activity Summary, RIAC, December 2004.3 Only the extension to Runway 5-23 for Build Alternative B4 would be implemented by 2015. Build Alternative B2 would be implemented in 2020. The facilityrequirements analysis provided in this chapter only considers the 2015 implementation of the Build Alternative.4 FAA’s TAF only reports passenger enplanements, which can be doubled for an estimate of total passengers.5 There are slightly more operations and passengers annually in 2020, due to one additional day associated with the leap year.6 Higher load factors are expected in 2025 compared to 2015.Notwithstanding the economic downturn, the FAA determined that there remains current and anticipated demandfor commercial non-stop service to West Coast markets from T.F. Green Airport based on the fact that regionaldemand (T.F. Green and Logan Airports) for service to the three largest markets has not changed in the samemanner as overall aviation activity at T.F. Green Airport since the time the forecast was originally developed. Asshown in Table 2-3, the total number of origin and destination (O&D) 35 passengers between T.F. Green and LoganAirports has decreased by 1 percent to the Los Angeles area, and increased by 8.6 percent and 20.2 percent to theSan Francisco Bay area and Seattle, respectively. This demonstrates that demand (including T.F. Green and LoganAirports) between these West Coast markets has outpaced overall passenger demand from T.F. Green Airport.35 Passengers that either board (enplane) or deplane at a particular stop, as distinct from those remaining on the plane to go to another destination.Chapter 2 – Purpose and Need 2-6 July 2011\\mawatr\ev\09228.00\reports\FEIS_Final_July_2011\PVD_CH02_P&N_JUL_2011.doc