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countries. 756 Policy measures included reductions in thelead content of petrol; provision of unleaded petrol; a banon leaded petrol; and taxes that favoured unleaded petrol.Policy action milestones included: GM’s announcement ofthe phase-out of leaded petrol in 1970; the 1985 EuropeanCommission directive; and the 1998 Aarhus Protocol. By2013, almost all countries in the world had phased-outleaded petrol.The long-term cost associated with health effects onchildren has been significant. The economic costs wereestimated to be as high as 4 to 6 per cent of GDP in EUcountries during the leaded petrol decades. 757 Althoughexposure is on the decline due to targeted policy actions,particularly the widespread phase-out of leaded gasoline,exposure to lead (from old paint mines and factories andelectronic waste) remains an important cause of disease. In2004, 0.6 per cent of the global burden of disease (inDALYs) was attributable to exposure to lead. The highestlead-associated rates of disease occurred in the EasternMediterranean and South-East Asian regions, whereexposures also remain the highest. 758The lead petrol case is the case of a man-made disasterwhich was predictable and avoidable, as the necessaryscientific information was available, and alcohol wasavailable as a better substitute. However, industry specialinterests and prohibition of alcohol at the time led to “lockin”of tetraethyl lead. It is important to note that ultimatelythe key motive for removing lead was that it interferedwith catalytic converters which were deployed for theremoval of air pollutants, such as SO 2 and NO X , asdemanded by environmental legislation (e.g., the US CleanAir Act of 1970). Hence, both the introduction of TEL and itseventual removal were closely linked to other seeminglyunrelated policy actions - alcohol prohibition and local airpollution regulation.7.7.3. Climate ChangeIn 1897, Swedish physicist Arhennius estimated thatdoubling the CO 2 in the atmosphere would raise theaverage global temperature by about 5°C. It can beconsidered the first scientifically credible early warningabout the possible dangers of climate change due to fossilfuel-related carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Arhennius’estimates compare with latest estimates of between 2.5 to4.0 °C today. While the basic physical principles of globalwarming are simple, the more detailed science of climatechange is exceedingly complicated. For example, theabsence of atmospheric warming from the late 1940s untilthe 1970s despite the increase in greenhouse gases,revealed yet another facet of the anthropogenic climatechange 'puzzle': that surface cooling could occur as a resultof increased atmospheric turbidity, both in clear and cloudy150atmospheres. Even today, many details of climate changeremain highly uncertain (e.g., the net effects of clouds).However, by 1990 the IPCC’s first assessment reportconcluded: “The potentially serious consequences of climatechange give sufficient reasons to begin adopting responsestrategies that can be justified immediately even in the faceof significant uncertainties.” 759 In other words, climatechange scientists deemed the scientific confidence in theevidence of anthropogenic climate change as sufficient tojustify policy action.During the 1980s, the climate change issue had become amatter of concern for environmental policymakers. Thescience-policy knowledge was formalised with theestablishment of the IPCC in 1988, and most policymakershave since acknowledged IPCC findings as authoritative. Inthis context, it should be noted that the IPCC isintergovernmental and sponsored by the United Nations(UNEP and WMO). Scientists and Governments select theIPCC reports’ authors. The reports are reviewed byscientific communities and adopted by governmentnominatedexperts. The first IPCC reports supported theestablishment of the UN Framework Convention on ClimateChange (UNFCC) 760 and its Kyoto Protocol (signed in 1997)which came into force in 2005.Global climate change differs from other environmentalproblems in various ways. It is mainly caused bywidespread fossil fuel burning and agriculture. The impactsof climate change and of climate change policies arepotentially large and widespread. The distribution of'winners' and 'losers' raises questions about equity acrosscountries and generations. In view of the complexity of thescience and economics of climate change, there are no“one-size-fits-all” optimal solutions available. Internationalpolitical action on climate change has been slowly movingforward in the 2000s, in the context of increasingly strongcalls from scientific communities. Environmental NGOs andbusiness organisations have influenced Governments’climate change-related policies, inter alia, by providinginformation (e.g., newsletters, scientific briefs) and throughawareness campaigns and lobbying.