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4.3. Measuring progress – target 11.5One of the disaster-related targets proposed by the OWG isthe outcome target 11.5 that aims to “By 2030, significantlyreduce the number of deaths and the number of peopleaffected and decrease by [x] per cent the economic lossesrelative to gross domestic product caused by disasters,including water-related disasters, with a focus onprotecting the poor and people in vulnerable situations”.This section of the chapter aims at advancing thediscussion, showcasing several issues that will need to betaken into consideration both when consideringappropriate target levels and when planning themonitoring of progress towards the target. There areseveral DRR related targets in the SDG proposal, but 11.5 isused here as an illustrative example to showcase issuesrelated to monitoring. At the same time, the section aimsat highlighting monitoring issues that are relevant also forthe implementation and planning of DRR measures, such asthe importance of loss accounting, risk assessments andprobabilistic modelling.4.3.1. Global and national level target setting anddiffering risk profilesDuring the negotiations of the OWG the Member Statesdiscussed options for filling the so called “x’s and y’s”, thetarget levels of numerous targets that were not specifiedby the OWG proposal. Member States discussed the issuefurther in the WCDRR negotiations, and the UNISDRprovided a Secretariat note 278 proposing potential targetlevels depending on the desired ambition level, but in theend the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction didnot include percentages.One option proposed in the SDG negotiations was to fill thegaps later with suitable global target percentages. Anotheroption proposed was for the Member States each to setsuitable, ambitious target levels at national level whichcould then be brought together and aggregated to a globaltarget for 2030.Due to very differing country risk profiles, differentiation atthe national level is inevitable with DRR. For countries withextremely low risks, DRR measures will not play asignificant role in implementing the SDGs, while for others,it will be a prerequisite for achieving not only the DRRtargets, but also many other goals. Also, for some countriessignificant reductions in mortality and economic losses willbe easier to achieve than for others, depending on thehazards they face.Since 1990, almost 90 per cent of the mortality recorded ininternationally reported disasters has occurred in low andmiddle-income countries. Improved health and educationsystems and infrastructure enhance emergencypreparedness, evacuations and care of the affected andhelp to bring down disaster mortality 279 .Box 4-1. Piloting targets and indicators at national levelSince early 2014, UNISDR developed a set of proposed DRRindicators and subsequently tested their feasibility jointlywith UNDP in country contexts. Taking into considerationexisting data availability and capacity, measuring systemsand information needs for national planning purposes, aproposed indicator framework was tested in five pilotcountries (Mozambique, Japan, Armenia, Paraguay andJapan). The pilots were organized in close collaborationwith UN country teams and involved a broad range ofdevelopment, disaster risk management and climatechange adaptation practitioners.Pilot countries responded positively to the exercise and thepossibility to both take ownership of the indicator andtarget proposals, and align the ones relevant to theircountry context to existing national measuringmechanisms. Findings from the pilots reconfirmed theproposed targets and indicators as generally applicable yetwith the need to simplify and adapt to different capacitycontexts. The results from these and further pilots to beconducted in 2015 will contribute to refining the indicatorsfor measuring progress against the seven targets outlinedin the ‘Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030’.Absolute economic loss is rising, but in relative terms takinginto account economic growth, the global increase ineconomic loss from disasters is not statistically significant.However, in some regions, losses have outstripped GDPgrowth. While absolute economic loss is concentrated inhigher-income countries, in relative terms it remains a fargreater problem for low income countries Table 4-1 280 .Most high-income countries have made investments tosignificantly reduce the more extensive layers of disasterrisk associated with high-frequency, low-severity losses,such as urban flooding, landslides and storms. However,although investments in risk reduction and regulation haveenabled a reduction of extensive risks, the value of assets inhazard-prone areas has grown, generating an increase inintensive risks. For example, investing in risk reductionmeasures to protect a floodplain against a 1-in-20-yearflood may encourage additional development on thefloodplain in a way that in the end increases the risksassociated with a 1-in-200-year flood 281 .73