2.1.4. Recommendations by the International Councilfor Science (ICSU) and the International SocialScience Council (ISSC)In early 2015, the two major non-governmental groupsrepresenting science at the UN – the International Councilfor Science (ICSU) and the International Social ScienceCouncil (ISSC) – presented a report entitled “Review ofTargets for the Sustainable Development Goals – TheScience Perspective”. 83In addition to a review of the 169 SDG targets, the reportalso made a number of recommendations regarding theoverall framework for the SDGs 84 which also built on workby Future Earth 85 , the UNU-IAS Post-2015 project 86 , and theIndependent Research Forum 87 . It noted that from ascience perspective the SDGs offered “major improvementson the Millennium Development Goals…” and welcomedthe universal framework and process that created acollective and shared commitment for SDGimplementation. However, it also pointed out the absenceof a systematic means-end separation, of scenario-basedpathways towards the SDGs, and noted that “the level ofintegration is far lower than justified from a scienceperspective”. While the SDGs are presented as 17 separateelements, “it is clear from systems science that goal areasoverlap, that many targets might contribute to severalgoals, and that some goals may conflict…. It is possible thatthe framework as a whole might not be internallyconsistent – and as a result not be sustainable“.Interestingly, the report highlighted the importance ofwhat Sen called “key freedoms” 88 , including economicopportunities and political liberty. It was suggested to buildon the values highlighted in the Millennium Declaration:“freedom, equality, solidarity, tolerance, respect for natureand shared responsibility”.In addition to specific suggestions on improvedspecification of the SDG targets and potential aggregationor “packaging” of goals, the ICSU/ISSC report made threerecommendations which promote an integratedperspective on the SDGs. They are described next and couldbe carried out in partnership among scientific communities,the UN system and Member States, and could complementand support the SDG proposal of the Open Working Group.2.1.5. ISCU/ISSC recommendation to formulate anoverarching goalFormulating an overarching goal can help communicatingthe SDGs to a wider public and tracking overall progress.The aforementioned ISCU/ISSC report provides an example42of an overarching goal - “a prosperous, high quality life thatis equitably shared and sustainable” 89 - and highlights theneed for new integrated economic metrics of progressbeyond GDP, beyond the Human Development Index andother established aggregate indices which were alreadyreviewed in the Prototype Global Sustainable DevelopmentReport 2014. The latter also provided information onselected proposals by scientists that remain outside theofficial statistical systems. Aggregate measures, such as theGlobal Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) 90 , respond toKuznets’ request voiced already in 1934 that “Goals formore growth should specify more growth of what and forwhat.” 912.1.6. ISCU/ISSC recommendation to developinterlinking targets that are common todifferent goalsWhile acknowledging that the proposed OWG formulationof the SDGs reflects important political and institutionalrealities and thus creates ownership indispensable for theirimplementation, the ICSU/ISSC report also proposes acomposite framework to link interdependent targets thatspan different goals 92 . For example, efficiency, pollutionintensity and access targets can be linked to most goals(e.g., water and energy efficiency targets can be linked tofood security goals, energy access to industrialdevelopment, carbon intensity to most goals, etc.). Sometargets must be realized in order for another one to beviable, some targets impose constraints, some targetsreinforce each other, and trade-offs may also occur. ThePrototype Global Sustainable Development Report 2014provided an overview of the inter-linkages between trendsand sustainable development issues as they actually playedout from 1950-2013 93 . It shows a complex picture wheretrade-offs and synergies also depend on trends in multipleareas and their direction can change over time. Forexample, economic growth can increase or decreasepollution loads depending on the type of growth and thepresence of many other factors. The ICSU-ISSC reportconcludes: “Ultimately, there is a need to incorporate awider systems perspective that can articulate how the goalsand targets would interact over time, in both positive andnegative ways, and how they would contribute to theoverarching goal.” 84 Eventually, “integrated indicators”based on causal linkages could support monitoring progressagainst such interlinking targets (see Box 1-8)
2.1.7. ISCU/ISSC recommendation to formulate acompelling narrative of developmentThe ICSU/ISSC report proposes the development ofscenario-based stories (or “narratives”) of alternativepathways toward the SDGs. These stories would explicitlylink means to the goals and describe how the trade-offs willhave been overcome and synergies built on. These storiesare expected to support the public discussion of the type offuture we actually want and how to get there. 94 Scenariobasedmodels could help assess the internal consistencyand feasibility of the stories. The Prototype GlobalSustainable Development Report 2014 already includedelements of a global pathway toward the SDGs andcompared them with a dynamics-as-usual future pathway.However, a much more in-depth and quantitativeunderstanding will need to be developed from national toregional and global levels. Most actions will need to betaken at the national level and it is far from clear whichtypes of national actions will add up to the achievement ofglobal SDGs. In fact, policy actions in one country oftenhave a bearing on other countries and sometimes limittheir policy space. Hence, a regular conversation betweendecision-makers and scenario analysts would be useful. Inthis context, a UN SDG modellers forum could beconsidered either at or in conjunction with the High-levelPolitical Forum for Sustainable Development. Such a forumcould promote exchange of experiences among allinterested SDG modellers and with decision-makers, fromnational to global scale. Such forum could alsocooperatively map the status and dynamics of the overallsystem that underlies the Sustainable Development Goals.2.1.8. Complexity scientists’ integrated view andglobal risksComplexity scientists can provide another integratedperspective on the SDGs. The world we live in is whatscientists call a “complex system”. Economic opportunitiesin one country are linked through the trading, investment,transport and communication systems to what goes on inother parts of the world. Many of the environmental issuesare of regional (e.g., many types of air pollution) or even ofglobal nature (e.g., climate change). Furthermore, many ofthe means at humanity’s disposal to deal with thechallenges have a strong global element, e.g., science,technology, innovation, finance, and education. And mosthuman aspirations are shared by humanity across theglobe. The responses from around the world to the onlineMyWorld survey 95 suggest that what respondents valuemost are: a good education, better healthcare, better job43opportunities, an honest and responsive government, andaffordable and nutritious food.It is an intrinsic feature of complex systems that sometimessmall perturbations can lead to big impacts. And this canhappen, even if all the information and skills are available.Systems consisting of networks of networks can appearvery stable and then collapse, seemingly with littleforewarning. The emerging disciplines of complexityscience and network science provide an increasing body ofknowledge which, however, has typically not beenconsidered by policy makers to date, in large part becauseit is not readily accessible knowledge. Yet, this knowledgehas become increasingly important, in view of the globalscale that man-made networking has reached: today thereare interlinked global networks comprising infrastructurenetworks (transport, energy, communications); investment,financing and trade networks; technology, innovation andeducation networks; social and value-based networks (e.g.,driven by NGOs); and networks of intergovernmentalagreements and international organizations. 96 Networkingis beneficial as it supports the global exchange of people,money, goods, information, ideas, but it can give rise undercertain circumstances to cascading effects with globalimpacts. Network infrastructures can create the modernpathways for disasters spread. 97Risk inherent to specific activities or events is typicallyquantified through measures such as the probability of anevent and its impacts given that the risk materializes.Systemic risk arises from interdependent, cascading failuresin a network of interconnected system components, andthe potential damage is largely determined by the size ofthe system. An example of systemic risk is the risk ofoutage in an electric grid. Hyper-risks arise from networksof networks, as different subsystems are interconnected,and potential damage also depends much on the systemstructure. Examples of hyper-risk are the risks of collapse ofthe global supply chain or of the energy-food-water system.While these risks typically increase with increasingnetworking density and size, so too do network benefits.For example, integration of transport, communications andtrading networks in the form of modern logistics and supplychain management has enabled the global production anddistribution systems which have literally lifted billions ofpeople from poverty around the world. Yet, it has alsoadded significant risks to the stability of the system.Adaptive decoupling strategies can be developed to dealwith the resulting interconnected, global risks. 98 The
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Table 6-2. Example of science-polic
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UN SystementityECLAC Drafted and re
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There are many well established met
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issues” in respective areas of ex
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Notes1 United Nations, Prototype Gl
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51 Contributions sent by national l
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112 The 72 models are: AIM, ASF, AS
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201 For more information, please vi
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276 A. R. Subbiah, Lolita Bildan, a
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595 Jessica N. Reimer et.al, Health
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671 Pulselabkampala.ug, 'UNFPA Ugan
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