poverty forces low-income households tooccupy areas of low land value that may beexposed to floods, landslides and otherhazards 249Climate change Many parts of the world are witnessing anincrease in extremes of climate, such as greaterextremes of temperature, heavier rainfall, orhigher maximum wind speed of storms 256 . Thiscan result in an increase in natural hazards suchas flash flooding, drought, landslide, and stormsurge In most countries, the predicted annual averageloss increases under climate change scenarios.But affects will differ country by country Drought and flood hazards are among the mostpotent causes for long-term impoverishment,functional during and after an emergency) not only providefor reduction in property losses, but may also save lives andreduce the number of injuries- Over 90 percent of global disaster-related costs for 2013 werehydrological, meteorological or climatological in origin 258- In Anguilla the predicted annual average losses attributable tocyclone wind doubles with climate change, while Trinidad andTobago faces a fivefold increase due to climate change. Incontrast, Mexico would actually see a reduction in AAL 259- Rising sea level will exacerbate the risks particularly for lowlyingareas, and since 1870, average global sea level has risenby about 8 inches 260- According to some estimates up to 118 million extremelypoor people in sub- Saharan Africa will be exposed todrought, flood and extreme heat hazards in 2030 261Ecosystems Environmental degradation is one of the maindrivers of disaster risk 262263 Natural ecosystems can reduce vulnerability tonatural hazards and extreme climatic eventsand complement, or substitute for, moreexpensive infrastructure investments Communities dependent on fragile or degradedlandscapes – such as overgrazed, heavilydeforested or severely eroded lands – are oftenthe most vulnerable to losses from naturalhazards 264Governance andpeacefulsocietiesMeans ofimplemen-tation,Renewed GlobalPartnershipThe effects of land degradation are oftenirreversible- Modeling for the Seychelles suggests wave energy hasdoubled partially as a result of changes in the structure (dueto bleaching) and species composition of coral reefs. In theCaribbean, more than 15,000 kilometers of shoreline couldexperience a 10–20 percent reduction in protection fromwaves and storms by 2050 as a result of reef degradation 265- Dense vegetation protects riverbanks and adjacent land andstructures from erosion by floodwaters. In Mantadia NationalPark, Madagascar, conversion from primary forest to swiddencan increase downstream storm flow by as much as 4.5times 266- In Africa, 52 per cent of land is considered degraded to somedegree 267Governance arrangements adopted by manycountries, relying heavily on specializedemergency management organizations, are notalways appropriate to address disaster risk 268Disaster risk governance often mirrors thechallenges, restrictions, blockages and obstaclesthat exist within the overall governancearrangements 269 , but DRG can also support goodgovernanceConflict and fragility can increase the impact ofdisasters, and disasters can exacerbateconflicts 270 --In India, following the earthquakes in Maharashtra (1993) andGujarat (2001), housing records were digitized and land titlesthat were traditionally only recorded under the name of themale head of household for the first time also included thefemale head of household. This practice was institutionalizedand transformed the general practice of social housing inthese states 271According to one assessment the 2007−2010 droughtcontributed to the conflict in Syria, causing widespread cropfailure and a mass migration of farming families to urbancenters 272International cooperation has heavily- According to one estimate 275 , for every 100 USD spent onimplementation 274 environmental management 277concentrated on emergency-relief anddevelopment aid, just 40 cents has been invested inreconstruction instead of preventive DRRdefending that aid from the impact of disastersFunding for DRR is strongly concentrated in just - In Bangladesh for every US$ 1 invested in storm, cyclone anda few recipient countries, with all but oneflood warning prediction systems, the estimated return is(Bangladesh) of the top 10 recipients ofbetween $ 8 and $ 500 for a 10-year period 276financing being middle-income countries 273 - Volumes of official development assistance (ODA) fundsCapacity building will be crucial, and there exists invested in DRR are very difficult to track and assess, and dataa need for closer coordination between DRR and on financing for DRR is poor since DRR activities are oftenclimate change adaptation; lack of coordination labelled under wider programmes and projects, includingon technology transfer has led to fragmentedthose relating to food security, health systems, and-72
4.3. Measuring progress – target 11.5One of the disaster-related targets proposed by the OWG isthe outcome target 11.5 that aims to “By 2030, significantlyreduce the number of deaths and the number of peopleaffected and decrease by [x] per cent the economic lossesrelative to gross domestic product caused by disasters,including water-related disasters, with a focus onprotecting the poor and people in vulnerable situations”.This section of the chapter aims at advancing thediscussion, showcasing several issues that will need to betaken into consideration both when consideringappropriate target levels and when planning themonitoring of progress towards the target. There areseveral DRR related targets in the SDG proposal, but 11.5 isused here as an illustrative example to showcase issuesrelated to monitoring. At the same time, the section aimsat highlighting monitoring issues that are relevant also forthe implementation and planning of DRR measures, such asthe importance of loss accounting, risk assessments andprobabilistic modelling.4.3.1. Global and national level target setting anddiffering risk profilesDuring the negotiations of the OWG the Member Statesdiscussed options for filling the so called “x’s and y’s”, thetarget levels of numerous targets that were not specifiedby the OWG proposal. Member States discussed the issuefurther in the WCDRR negotiations, and the UNISDRprovided a Secretariat note 278 proposing potential targetlevels depending on the desired ambition level, but in theend the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction didnot include percentages.One option proposed in the SDG negotiations was to fill thegaps later with suitable global target percentages. Anotheroption proposed was for the Member States each to setsuitable, ambitious target levels at national level whichcould then be brought together and aggregated to a globaltarget for 2030.Due to very differing country risk profiles, differentiation atthe national level is inevitable with DRR. For countries withextremely low risks, DRR measures will not play asignificant role in implementing the SDGs, while for others,it will be a prerequisite for achieving not only the DRRtargets, but also many other goals. Also, for some countriessignificant reductions in mortality and economic losses willbe easier to achieve than for others, depending on thehazards they face.Since 1990, almost 90 per cent of the mortality recorded ininternationally reported disasters has occurred in low andmiddle-income countries. Improved health and educationsystems and infrastructure enhance emergencypreparedness, evacuations and care of the affected andhelp to bring down disaster mortality 279 .Box 4-1. Piloting targets and indicators at national levelSince early 2014, UNISDR developed a set of proposed DRRindicators and subsequently tested their feasibility jointlywith UNDP in country contexts. Taking into considerationexisting data availability and capacity, measuring systemsand information needs for national planning purposes, aproposed indicator framework was tested in five pilotcountries (Mozambique, Japan, Armenia, Paraguay andJapan). The pilots were organized in close collaborationwith UN country teams and involved a broad range ofdevelopment, disaster risk management and climatechange adaptation practitioners.Pilot countries responded positively to the exercise and thepossibility to both take ownership of the indicator andtarget proposals, and align the ones relevant to theircountry context to existing national measuringmechanisms. Findings from the pilots reconfirmed theproposed targets and indicators as generally applicable yetwith the need to simplify and adapt to different capacitycontexts. The results from these and further pilots to beconducted in 2015 will contribute to refining the indicatorsfor measuring progress against the seven targets outlinedin the ‘Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030’.Absolute economic loss is rising, but in relative terms takinginto account economic growth, the global increase ineconomic loss from disasters is not statistically significant.However, in some regions, losses have outstripped GDPgrowth. While absolute economic loss is concentrated inhigher-income countries, in relative terms it remains a fargreater problem for low income countries Table 4-1 280 .Most high-income countries have made investments tosignificantly reduce the more extensive layers of disasterrisk associated with high-frequency, low-severity losses,such as urban flooding, landslides and storms. However,although investments in risk reduction and regulation haveenabled a reduction of extensive risks, the value of assets inhazard-prone areas has grown, generating an increase inintensive risks. For example, investing in risk reductionmeasures to protect a floodplain against a 1-in-20-yearflood may encourage additional development on thefloodplain in a way that in the end increases the risksassociated with a 1-in-200-year flood 281 .73
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There are many well established met
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issues” in respective areas of ex
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51 Contributions sent by national l
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112 The 72 models are: AIM, ASF, AS
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201 For more information, please vi
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276 A. R. Subbiah, Lolita Bildan, a
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354 Information available at: http:
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African Economic Outlook, Structura
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512 Report Of The International Min
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595 Jessica N. Reimer et.al, Health
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671 Pulselabkampala.ug, 'UNFPA Ugan
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732 Climate Change timeline: (a) Sc
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790 Oxfam. ICT in humanitarian prac
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863 T. Dinku. New approaches to imp