Security in Space The Next Generation - UNIDIR

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156 put in orbit was a weapon, even it had weapons capability? Because of the dual-use nature of many on-orbit technologies, the ability to defi ne what is and is not a weapon becomes a critical problem. For example, there has been some interest in building vehicles to refuel satellites or tugs to take down space debris. Each of those systems could also do double duty as an ASAT. And how would you verify that a space tug was really only for use in taking down ailing satellites and large debris, and not operational satellites? It is clear that nations could, in the course of negotiations, simply assign weapons status to objects based on a judgment about their capabilities and their intentions and need for the capabilities, but such a process is likely to be unwieldy and extremely politically contentious. This language, however, says nothing at all about a process for classifi cation—something that I believe needs to be redressed. And it may be that the concern about space weapons is so great that nations could accept a treaty without verifi cation, but given the classifi cation problem, I am not certain that would be the best route. While I understand that before any verifi cation discussion takes place, negotiators need to know what it is they are trying to verify—it does seem to me that it would be useful for the draft to perhaps lay out some options that might be pursued regarding verifi cation. I must reiterate that I am not against the idea of a treaty to ban on-orbit weapons—I personally think the introduction of weapons into orbit would be a very bad thing for international stability, especially among the nuclear powers, and would lead to an ASAT arms race that would be even more destabilizing. Indeed, I think that a simple agreement among all nations in which each declared their intention not to put weapons in orbit would be useful as a normsetting, confi dence-building device. But I do not think that a treaty that seeks to actually prevent their deployment can be designed without some clarity about what is and what is not a weapon—or at least clarity about how exactly that determination is made—and some measures for verifying non-compliance. The language in this draft, in my own humble opinion, would not prevent deployment, and at the same time would become a vehicle for constant political confl ict about compliance. That is not to say solutions cannot be found, as any arms control effort is primarily a question of political will, simply that there needs to be more work to fi nd them. Despite the problems that I have highlighted, I do want to again thank our Russian and Chinese colleagues for their dedicated work on keeping the issue of the non-weaponization of outer space on the table at the CD. It is a critical issue, and one that must be addressed internationally—as the actions of any one actor in outer space affect all others. The utilization of
outer space is fundamentally important to each and every one of us on Earth; indeed, to our ability to ensure the long-term sustainability of Earth itself. The weaponization of outer space would surely restrict the peaceful uses of outer space that are so fundamental to humankind, as well as raise the risks of confl ict on Earth. Serious multilateral efforts to prevent that outcome continue to be necessary and ever more urgent. I urge all the members of the CD to continue to try to fi nd ways—including near-term alternatives to an orbital-weapons-ban treaty such as the development of confi dence-building measures, pursuit of a binding code of conduct for space actors, and an agreement to prevent testing and use of destructive ASATs—to lower the risk of warfare in outer space. 157
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THE SIMONS FOUNDATION SECURE WORLD
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About the cover Cover photograph co
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CONTENTS Foreword .................
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FOREWORD Outer space is an essentia
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS UNIDIR would like
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xii on the editorial board of The B
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xiv Victor VASILIEV Victor Vasiliev
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CONFERENCE SUMMARY The conference
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Another threat that we need to addr
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humanitarian workers to reach the e
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The question was raised as to wheth
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For this reasons, TCBMs and a treat
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cases actors should engage in consu
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Following the presentations by the
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Could stated national policies, if
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the contrary. Rules in space became
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effects of space weather, and of co
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2 space activities, it has become c
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4 in Outer Space, the Threat or Use
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SPACE GENERATION ADVISORY COUNCIL A
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The fi rst issue is space debris. S
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avoid confl ict by prohibiting weap
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14 For its devastating power, the d
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16 papers elaborating our views on
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DOWN TO EARTH: A SOLUTION TO A GLOB
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for life on Mars could have a numbe
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Combining their expertise in mass s
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26 Perhaps the most widespread civi
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28 strengthen disaster preparedness
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30 solutions for human security, pe
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32 and other small particles. There
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NEXT GENERATION SPACE SECURITY CHAL
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This is a summary of all objects in
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Table 2. Worldwide space situationa
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was on par with one another at roug
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challenge to the international comm
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Notes 1 This research has been made
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NO HARMFUL INTERFERENCE WITH SPACE
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and the second Strategic Arms Reduc
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as well as terrestrial capabilities
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The Henry L. Stimson Center, in col
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The critics are right to recall tha
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forums. It could be negotiated by a
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precedent for non-interference with
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TRANSPARENCY AND CONFIDENCE-BUILDIN
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IADC’s terms of reference also pr
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actions. As these groups develop co
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TRANSPARENCY AND CONFIDENCE-BUILDIN
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In addition, strict compliance with
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in considering eventual confi dence
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The above-mentioned measures are no
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Notes 1 General Assembly, Special R
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SAFEGUARDING OUTER SPACE: ON THE RO
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mechanisms under permanent review,
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thereby and which may run counter t
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the discretion of that state—henc
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condition of “common agreement”
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Foundation, and Rebecca Johnson, di
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ANNEX Buenos Aires International In
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Refusal to hold consultations, or t
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confi rmation thirty days after the
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States Parties to the Treaty shall
Page 125 and 126: space law, UN document A/AC.105/C.2
Page 127 and 128: 104 a potential direct threat to ma
Page 129 and 130: 106 SPACE LAW: MANY PRINCIPLES, NO
Page 131 and 132: 108 of government and corporate sta
Page 133 and 134: 110 growth will be badly hurt if th
Page 135 and 136: 112 and samples of residual materia
Page 137 and 138: 114 outer space beyond the geostati
Page 139 and 140: 116 Virgin Galactic had to obtain t
Page 141 and 142: 118 air and space traffi c in the i
Page 143 and 144: 120 aviation and space weather comm
Page 145 and 146: 122 could play a role in lowering o
Page 147 and 148: 124 In other word, space security i
Page 149 and 150: 126 a second meeting of the informa
Page 151 and 152: 128 ANNEX SPACE DEBRIS MITIGATION G
Page 153 and 154: 130 Guideline 1: Limit debris relea
Page 155 and 156: 132 that survives to reach the surf
Page 157 and 158: FROM SPACE DOMINANCE TO EQUITABLE R
Page 159 and 160: The United States has never conduct
Page 161 and 162: space for any purposes that the Uni
Page 163 and 164: provide adequate reassurance that n
Page 165 and 166: SESSION IV TREATIES AND AGREEMENTS:
Page 167 and 168: 146 such weapons, if deployed in ou
Page 169 and 170: 148 DEFINITIONS AND SCOPE OF A PPWT
Page 171 and 172: 150 preamble—aims of a new treaty
Page 173 and 174: RUSSIAN-CHINESE SPACE-WEAPONS-BAN P
Page 175: this issue would ensure that a trea
Page 179 and 180: 160 it is formed, what power it has
Page 181 and 182: 162 ought to be illegal (or, ought
Page 183 and 184: 164 two specifi c ASAT activities:
Page 185 and 186: 166 CIL has always been an importan
Page 187 and 188: 168 neutral space assets, even if t
Page 189 and 190: 170 Despite that fi stful of treati
Page 191 and 192: 172 in combat. Outer space is, of c
Page 193 and 194: SESSION V NEXT GENERATION, NEXT STE
Page 195 and 196: 178 the ability to secure borders,
Page 197 and 198: 180 and the Chinese in 2007 have le
Page 199 and 200: 182 LIMITING ORBITAL DEBRIS FORMATI
Page 201 and 202: 184 nations, an essential ingredien
Page 203 and 204: SPACE SECURITY AND SATELLITE APPLIC
Page 205 and 206: ROLE OF UNOSAT The initial idea of
Page 207 and 208: CANADA’S PERSPECTIVE ON SPACE SEC
Page 209 and 210: The draft treaty on the Prevention
Page 211: ACRONYMS ASAT anti-satellite weapon
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