Security in Space The Next Generation - UNIDIR

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40 INCREASE IN SPACE ACTORS Linked to the operational challenges of the space environment are the number and diversity of space actors, which continue to grow as the social, economic and security benefi ts that space access provides are sought. Chart 2 indicates the growing number of national actors accessing outer space. 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1955 Chart 2. Growth in the number of national actors accessing space 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 ● = fi rst independent launch ● = deployment of fi rst satellite 1979 Source: Jonathan’s Space Report, “Satellite Catalogue and Launch Catalogue”, ; Encyclopedia Austronautica, “Chronology 2004”, . Not only are more national actors gaining access to outer space, particularly developing countries, but new private actors with a range of interests are also emerging. As companies such as SpaceX and Bigelow Aerospace seek to revolutionize access to outer space by drastically reducing costs and providing access to private individuals, the number and type of users of outer space will continue to grow. Even among traditional civil, military, and commercial space actors, the use of outer space is both growing and diversifying. In 2007, the number of satellites launched by each actor 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007
was on par with one another at roughly 35 spacecraft each, and there is a notable overlap of users for different spacecraft, blurring this standard classifi cation of space actors. Increasingly, the growing number and diversity of actors in outer space will strain both the availability of resources and the current international legal and regulatory regime for outer space. Both radio frequencies and orbital slots, the building blocks of operating in outer space, are limited resources, currently managed by the International Telecommunications Union (ITU). The distribution of these resources on a fi rst-come, fi rst-served basis may be contentious in the future, with one concern being the growing military use of space resources, which is not regulated by the ITU. Moreover, the current legal regime is based extensively on the premise of states as actors, which has already generated some challenges regarding registration and liability issues, but will prove more problematic in the future as private actors increasingly access outer space. The need for a set of common and consistent rules and procedures for operating in outer space, or a system of space traffi c management that includes all actors, will also become more apparent in the future as the use of outer space increases. Finally, as space access spreads, so does access to and development of space technologies, some of which could be used to threaten the security of space operations. PROLIFERATION OF SPACE TECHNOLOGIES: GROUND-BASED CAPABILITIES One of the greatest technological challenges to the security of outer space in the future will continue to come from ground-based capabilities, particularly the horizontal and vertical proliferation of missile technologies. For example, medium- and long-range ballistic missiles can be modifi ed to threaten space objects in low Earth orbit, as demonstrated by the Chinese missile intercept on 11 January 2007. Similarly, the spread of anti-ballistic missile defences is also of concern due to the potential of use against space objects, illustrated by the intercept of US-193 with a modifi ed Standard Missile 3 used by the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System on 21 February 2008. Not only can longer range missiles and anti-missile systems directly threaten spacecraft in low orbits, but they also pose a risk to the operating environment through the creation of debris. 41
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THE SIMONS FOUNDATION SECURE WORLD
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About the cover Cover photograph co
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CONTENTS Foreword .................
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FOREWORD Outer space is an essentia
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS UNIDIR would like
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xii on the editorial board of The B
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xiv Victor VASILIEV Victor Vasiliev
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CONFERENCE SUMMARY The conference
Page 17 and 18: Another threat that we need to addr
Page 19 and 20: humanitarian workers to reach the e
Page 21 and 22: The question was raised as to wheth
Page 23 and 24: For this reasons, TCBMs and a treat
Page 25 and 26: cases actors should engage in consu
Page 27 and 28: Following the presentations by the
Page 29 and 30: Could stated national policies, if
Page 31 and 32: the contrary. Rules in space became
Page 33 and 34: effects of space weather, and of co
Page 35 and 36: 2 space activities, it has become c
Page 37 and 38: 4 in Outer Space, the Threat or Use
Page 39 and 40: SPACE GENERATION ADVISORY COUNCIL A
Page 41 and 42: The fi rst issue is space debris. S
Page 43 and 44: avoid confl ict by prohibiting weap
Page 45 and 46: 14 For its devastating power, the d
Page 47 and 48: 16 papers elaborating our views on
Page 49 and 50: DOWN TO EARTH: A SOLUTION TO A GLOB
Page 51 and 52: for life on Mars could have a numbe
Page 53 and 54: Combining their expertise in mass s
Page 55 and 56: 26 Perhaps the most widespread civi
Page 57 and 58: 28 strengthen disaster preparedness
Page 59 and 60: 30 solutions for human security, pe
Page 61 and 62: 32 and other small particles. There
Page 63 and 64: NEXT GENERATION SPACE SECURITY CHAL
Page 65 and 66: This is a summary of all objects in
Page 67: Table 2. Worldwide space situationa
Page 71 and 72: challenge to the international comm
Page 73 and 74: Notes 1 This research has been made
Page 75 and 76: NO HARMFUL INTERFERENCE WITH SPACE
Page 77 and 78: and the second Strategic Arms Reduc
Page 79 and 80: as well as terrestrial capabilities
Page 81 and 82: The Henry L. Stimson Center, in col
Page 83 and 84: The critics are right to recall tha
Page 85 and 86: forums. It could be negotiated by a
Page 87 and 88: precedent for non-interference with
Page 89 and 90: TRANSPARENCY AND CONFIDENCE-BUILDIN
Page 91 and 92: IADC’s terms of reference also pr
Page 93 and 94: actions. As these groups develop co
Page 95 and 96: TRANSPARENCY AND CONFIDENCE-BUILDIN
Page 97 and 98: In addition, strict compliance with
Page 99 and 100: in considering eventual confi dence
Page 101 and 102: The above-mentioned measures are no
Page 103 and 104: Notes 1 General Assembly, Special R
Page 105 and 106: SAFEGUARDING OUTER SPACE: ON THE RO
Page 107 and 108: mechanisms under permanent review,
Page 109 and 110: thereby and which may run counter t
Page 111 and 112: the discretion of that state—henc
Page 113 and 114: condition of “common agreement”
Page 115 and 116: Foundation, and Rebecca Johnson, di
Page 117 and 118: ANNEX Buenos Aires International In
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Refusal to hold consultations, or t
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confi rmation thirty days after the
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States Parties to the Treaty shall
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space law, UN document A/AC.105/C.2
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104 a potential direct threat to ma
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106 SPACE LAW: MANY PRINCIPLES, NO
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108 of government and corporate sta
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110 growth will be badly hurt if th
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112 and samples of residual materia
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114 outer space beyond the geostati
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116 Virgin Galactic had to obtain t
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118 air and space traffi c in the i
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120 aviation and space weather comm
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122 could play a role in lowering o
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124 In other word, space security i
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126 a second meeting of the informa
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128 ANNEX SPACE DEBRIS MITIGATION G
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130 Guideline 1: Limit debris relea
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132 that survives to reach the surf
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FROM SPACE DOMINANCE TO EQUITABLE R
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The United States has never conduct
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space for any purposes that the Uni
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provide adequate reassurance that n
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SESSION IV TREATIES AND AGREEMENTS:
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146 such weapons, if deployed in ou
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148 DEFINITIONS AND SCOPE OF A PPWT
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150 preamble—aims of a new treaty
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RUSSIAN-CHINESE SPACE-WEAPONS-BAN P
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this issue would ensure that a trea
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outer space is fundamentally import
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160 it is formed, what power it has
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162 ought to be illegal (or, ought
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164 two specifi c ASAT activities:
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166 CIL has always been an importan
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168 neutral space assets, even if t
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170 Despite that fi stful of treati
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172 in combat. Outer space is, of c
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SESSION V NEXT GENERATION, NEXT STE
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178 the ability to secure borders,
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180 and the Chinese in 2007 have le
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182 LIMITING ORBITAL DEBRIS FORMATI
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184 nations, an essential ingredien
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SPACE SECURITY AND SATELLITE APPLIC
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ROLE OF UNOSAT The initial idea of
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CANADA’S PERSPECTIVE ON SPACE SEC
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The draft treaty on the Prevention
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ACRONYMS ASAT anti-satellite weapon
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