Jaargang 8, nommer 2 – Augustus 2011 - LitNet

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LitNet Akademies Jaargang 8(2) – Augustus 2011 Tabel 6: Universiteite wat ’n vereenvoudigde TPT-berekening gebruik – vir toelating in 2011 Tabel 7: Universiteite wat ’n meer komplekse TPT-berekening gebruik – vir toelating in 2011 226 ISSN 1995-5928 | Tel: 021 886 5169 | E-pos: akademies@litnet.co.za
LitNet Akademies Jaargang 8(2) – Augustus 2011 Toekomsstudie: Instrument vir toekomsskepping Summary Future studies: Instrument of future creation Rianne van Vuuren Nagraadse student Instituut vir Toekomsnavorsing Universiteit Stellenbosch se Bestuurskool Thinking about the future has been part of human civilisation since the earliest times. Humanity needs the future and subsequently strives to form adequate images of future realities (futura). Despite its historical roots, futures studies remains a relatively recent academic discipline and intellectual tool. For this reason, debate about the basic questions regarding future studies remains useful. Futures studies tools such as scenario planning, environmental scanning, trend analysis, the Delphi method and systems thinking are generally used by practitioners and academics. In terms of the theoretical underpinning of future studies more work remains necessary. Despite many futurists’ agreeing on the rationale, role and aims of future studies, approaches to future studies differ significantly. The approach to future studies in this article is transdisciplinary and actionorientated. The aim of this article is to propose an initial contemporary future framework which can be used as a theoretical but also a practical methodology to create futures insight. The future is not given, as there is a multitude of possible futures of which one can manifest. Futures studies encourages thinking on how today’s actions (or lack thereof) will become the reality of tomorrow. This includes efforts to analyse the causes, patterns and sources of change and stability with the aim of creating foresight and alternative futures. Despite technological progress being an integral part of our society today, civilisation is seemingly racing itself into a “pathologically short attention span”, according to one author, a trend which, he continues, is “boosted by the acceleration of technology, the shorthorizon perspective of marketdriven economics, the nextelection perspective of democracies, and the distractions of personal multitasking” (Brand 1999:2). Future studies takes the longer view. It is mainly concerned with understanding social realities or “constructs” which create the future as well as the development of sustainable futureoriented visions which can inspire communities and entities (Slaughter 1999:305). In this regard future studies serves as an instrument to research the practical attainment of such views. Social reality can be described as encompassing processes (how things are being done), structures (how things are interrelated), outcomes (why things are done), context (the environment’s influence) and ordering (how things are kept intact) (Gharajedaghi 2006:29). When focusing on knowledge of the future, there is more than one term that can be used. Seeing that the meanings of these terms differ, it remains important to distinguish between concepts like prediction, forecasting and foresight in order to understand the boundaries and 227 ISSN 1995-5928 | Tel: 021 886 5169 | E-pos: akademies@litnet.co.za
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Jaargang 8, nommer 2 – Augustus 2011 - LitNet

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