Jaargang 8, nommer 2 – Augustus 2011 - LitNet

More documents

Recommendations

Info

LitNet Akademies Jaargang 8(2) – Augustus 2011 limitations of future studies. This is done in the article to contribute to understanding the boundaries and limitations of future studies. The term foresight, especially, takes forecast further, and is a term generally used in future studies. Foresight is the ability to have a conception of what is likely to happen in the future and take the appropriate action to aid or avoid it (Collins Cobuild 2001:616). Slaughter (1995:1) stresses that foresight is not the ability to predict the future, but is a human attribute that allows mankind to weigh up pros and cons, to evaluate different courses of action and to invest possible futures on every level with enough reality and meaning to use them as decisionmaking aids. The simplest possible definition of foresight is: “opening to the future with every means at our disposal, developing views of future options, and then choosing between them”. Foresight can act to promote knowledgability in humans and as such it operates as a ”higherorder” language. Truly understanding the present is part of such a knowledgeability. Acknowledging that many of the prior actions of foresight have served the interests of those in power is also part of such a knowledgeability. This includes the understanding that language and technology should not be regarded as neutral, and endeavouring to view the present outside the confines of a shortterm approach. Instead of seeking stability, understanding surprise, limits, disturbance, consciousness and transformation is likewise part of such a knowledgability (Hayward 2005). A multitude of methods can be used to produce the knowledgeability that underlie insight. A framework for such a model is proposed in this article. The search for future insight can take place if the overreaching driving forces which will have a significant impact on the future can be identified. The technology, war/conflict, social, economic and political environments within which human activity takes place generate these driving forces. As a result of the environmental scan the three most prominent driving forces were identified. These driving forces are the centrality of networks, especially social networks, technological innovation and the prominence of transformation, especially institutional transformation, in human endeavours. These three issues related to geopolitics and socioeconomic environments are substantially different in the contemporary world compared with anything in past human experience. The first is the integration of the world community and the rise of networks, especially social networks. Second, the spread of technology and the growing wealth of many new states and networks have resulted in the simultaneous emergence of a host of new middleranking military, political and economic powers across the world, but also great inequality between states, groups and individuals. Thirdly, societal change has been accelerated to new levels, resulting in transformation being a constant reality affecting nearly all social entities. Within this framework, futures methodologies could be used with the aim of making a positive contribution in search for a better life in South Africa and Africa. The communication of scenarios developed by Anglo American, Nedcor/Old Mutual and Mont Fleur during the late 1980s and early 1990s, for example, played a significant role in convincing decision makers to choose the high road to a negotiated settlement and not the low road to demise. It seems to be the right time for futures studies techniques to contribute to sustainable development not only in South Africa, but also in Africa. New ideas are not always the most critical element for the futurist. Of greater importance is to develop strategies and to mobilise political will with the aim of implementing solutions. For the futurist the challenge remains to create a link between the decisionmaker and the possible solutions. 228 ISSN 1995-5928 | Tel: 021 886 5169 | E-pos: akademies@litnet.co.za
LitNet Akademies Jaargang 8(2) – Augustus 2011 Key words: Future studies, foresight, futures framework, networks, transformation, technology, futurist and futures methodologies Opsomming Om oor die toekoms te dink, is ’n aktiwiteit wat sedert die begin van die beskawing deur die mens beoefen word. Die mens is ’n wese vir wie die toekoms ’n werklikheid is en gevolglik streef die mens daarna om toepaslike beelde van toekomstige realiteite (futura) te skep. Toekomsstudie as ’n transdissiplinêre toekomsgerigte intellektuele oefening is, ten spyte van sy geskiedkundige wortels, ’n relatief onlangse verskyning. Heelwat toekomsstudie-instrumente soos scenariobeplanning, omgewingsverkenningnavorsing, tendensontleding, die Delphi-metode en stelseldenke word met sukses deur praktisyns en akademici aangewend. Die toekoms is nie ’n statiese gegewe nie. Daar is ’n magdom moontlike toekomste waarvan een ’n werklikheid kan word. Toekomsstudie moedig denke aan oor hoe vandag se optredes (of die gebrek daaraan) môre se werklikheid word. Dit sluit pogings in om die oorsake, patrone en bronne van verandering en stabiliteit te ontleed, met die doelwit om toekomsinsig te bewerkstellig en alternatiewe toekomste te ontwerp. Die raamwerktoekomsstudie-model wat in hierdie artikel voorgestel word, identifiseer verandering, netwerke en tegnologiese nuwighede as die dryfkragte wat toekomsinsig kan bewerkstellig. Dit voorsien ’n raamwerk waarbinne toekomsstudiemetodologieë gebruik kan word om ’n positiewe bydrae te lewer tot die soeke na ’n beter lewe in Suid-Afrika en Afrika. So byvoorbeeld het die kommunikasie van die scenario’s wat gedurende die laat jare tagtig en vroeë jare negentig deur Anglo American, Nedcor/Ou Mutual en Mont Fleur ontwikkel is, ’n wesenlike rol gespeel om die oorgangsonderhandelaars in Suid-Afrika te oortuig om die hoofpad na ’n skikking te kies en nie die roete na ondergang nie. Dit lyk tog of dit nou weer ’n geskikte tyd is om met toekomsstudietegnieke ’n bydrae tot nie net toekomstige volhoubare ontwikkeling in Suid-Afrika nie, maar ook in Afrika te lewer. Trefwoorde: Toekomsstudie, toekomsinsig, toekomsstudiemodel, netwerke, transformasie, tegnologie, futuris en toekomsstudiemetodologieë 1. Inleiding Om oor die toekoms te dink is ’n aktiwiteit wat sedert die begin van die beskawing deur die mens beoefen word. De Jouvenel (1967:40) beskryf die mens as ’n wese vir wie die toekoms ’n werklikheid is en wat gevolglik daarna streef om toepaslike beelde van toekomstige realiteite (futura) te skep. Toekomsstudie as ’n toekomsgerigte intellektuele oefening is, ten spyte van sy geskiedkundige wortels, ’n onlangse verskynsel (Bell 2007a:6). Die grondslae van toekomsstudie is uiteenlopend en sluit in die vroeë wetenskapfiksieskryfwerk, strategiese beplanning gedurende en ná die Tweede Wêreldoorlog, aanvanklike werk wat gedoen is tydens sentrale beplanning, asook dinkskrums oor toekomstige uitdagings. Hierdie uiteenlopende grondslae het bygedra tot die vestiging van toekomsstudie as ’n transdissiplinêre studieveld. 1 Tradisionele dissiplines het ’n doxa, ’n spesifieke versameling klassieke en aanvaarde tekste wat gelees moet word en die basis van die dissipline daarstel. Toekomsstudie en veral toekomsnavorsing ontbreek steeds grootliks aan ’n doxa met ’n duidelike 229 ISSN 1995-5928 | Tel: 021 886 5169 | E-pos: akademies@litnet.co.za
Page 1 and 2:
LitNet Akademies ’n Akademiese jo
Page 3 and 4:
Adviesraadslede van LitNet Akademie
Page 5 and 6:
Inhoudsopgawe Afdeling: Natuurweten
Page 7 and 8:
Afdeling: Natuurwetenskappe
Page 9 and 10:
LitNet Akademies Jaargang 8(2) Augu
Page 11 and 12:
Page 13 and 14:
Page 15 and 16:
(e) Alle komposisies van en is mo
Page 17 and 18:
Page 19 and 20:
T(x) = 33.6348 T(L 1 U 1 x) = 18.09
Page 21 and 22:
Dus is LitNet Akademies Jaargang 8(
Page 23 and 24:
Page 25 and 26:
Stelling 9: Vir x ∈ Mn−1 geld:
Page 27 and 28:
Page 29 and 30:
LitNet Akademies Jaargang 8(2) - Au
Page 31 and 32:
Page 33 and 34:
Page 35 and 36:
Page 37 and 38:
Page 39 and 40:
Page 41 and 42:
Page 43 and 44:
Page 45 and 46:
Page 47 and 48:
Page 49 and 50:
Page 51 and 52:
Page 53 and 54:
Page 55 and 56:
Page 57 and 58:
Page 59 and 60:
Page 61 and 62:
Page 63 and 64:
Page 65 and 66:
Page 67 and 68:
Page 69 and 70:
Page 71 and 72:
Page 73 and 74:
Page 75 and 76:
Page 77 and 78:
Page 79 and 80:
Page 81 and 82:
Page 83 and 84:
Page 85 and 86:
Page 87 and 88:
Page 89 and 90:
Page 91 and 92:
Page 93 and 94:
Page 95 and 96:
Page 97 and 98:
Page 99 and 100:
Page 101 and 102:
Page 103 and 104:
Page 105 and 106:
Page 107 and 108:
Page 109 and 110:
Page 111 and 112:
Page 113 and 114:
Page 115 and 116:
Page 117 and 118:
Page 119 and 120:
Page 121 and 122:
Page 123 and 124:
Page 125 and 126:
Page 127 and 128:
Page 129 and 130:
Page 131 and 132:
Page 133 and 134:
Page 135 and 136:
Page 137 and 138:
Page 139 and 140:
Page 141 and 142:
Page 143 and 144:
Page 145 and 146:
Page 147 and 148:
Page 149 and 150:
3.3.4 Tekstuele patrone LitNet Akad
Page 151 and 152:
Page 153 and 154:
Page 155 and 156:
Page 157 and 158:
Page 159 and 160:
Page 161 and 162:
153 LitNet Akademies Jaargang 8(2)
Page 163 and 164:
155 1. Inleiding LitNet Akademies J
Page 165 and 166:
Page 167 and 168:
Page 169 and 170:
Page 171 and 172:
Page 173 and 174:
Page 175 and 176:
Page 177 and 178:
Page 179 and 180:
Page 181 and 182:
Page 183 and 184:
Page 185 and 186: 177 LitNet Akademies Jaargang 8(2)
Page 189 and 190: 181 5.2.6 Oorkoepelende tema LitNet
Page 191 and 192: 183 Botha, E. 1992. Kortverhaal. In
Page 197 and 198: LitNet Akademies Jaargang 8(2) - Au
Page 235: LitNet Akademies Jaargang 8(2) - Au
Page 241 and 242: - Fundamentele toekomstige verander
Page 249 and 250: Bibliografie LitNet Akademies Jaarg
Page 287 and 288:
Page 289 and 290:
Page 291 and 292:
Page 293 and 294:
Page 295 and 296:
Page 297 and 298:
Page 299 and 300:
Page 301 and 302:
Page 303 and 304:
Page 305 and 306:
Page 307 and 308:
Page 309 and 310:
eenbleek (gedig 5, r. 4) / bone-ble
Page 311 and 312:
Page 313 and 314:
Page 315 and 316:
Page 317 and 318:
Summary LitNet Akademies Jaargang 8
Page 319 and 320:
Page 321 and 322:
Page 323 and 324:
Page 325 and 326:
Page 327 and 328:
Page 329 and 330:
Page 331 and 332:
Page 333 and 334:
Page 335 and 336:
Lees die volgende sinne: Hulle ken
Page 337 and 338:
show all

Jaargang 8, nommer 2 – Augustus 2011 - LitNet

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?