Jaargang 8, nommer 2 – Augustus 2011 - LitNet

LitNet Akademies Jaargang 8(2) – Augustus 2011
limitations of future studies. This is done in the article to contribute to understanding the
boundaries and limitations of future studies.
The term foresight, especially, takes forecast further, and is a term generally used in future
studies. Foresight is the ability to have a conception of what is likely to happen in the future
and take the appropriate action to aid or avoid it (Collins Cobuild 2001:616). Slaughter
(1995:1) stresses that foresight is not the ability to predict the future, but is a human
attribute that allows mankind to weigh up pros and cons, to evaluate different courses of
action and to invest possible futures on every level with enough reality and meaning to use
them as decision­making aids. The simplest possible definition of foresight is: “opening to the
future with every means at our disposal, developing views of future options, and then
choosing between them”.
Foresight can act to promote knowledgability in humans and as such it operates as a ”higherorder”
language. Truly understanding the present is part of such a knowledgeability.
Acknowledging that many of the prior actions of foresight have served the interests of those in
power is also part of such a knowledgeability. This includes the understanding that language
and technology should not be regarded as neutral, and endeavouring to view the present
outside the confines of a short­term approach. Instead of seeking stability, understanding
surprise, limits, disturbance, consciousness and transformation is likewise part of such a
knowledgability (Hayward 2005).
A multitude of methods can be used to produce the knowledgeability that underlie insight. A
framework for such a model is proposed in this article. The search for future insight can take
place if the overreaching driving forces which will have a significant impact on the future can
be identified. The technology, war/conflict, social, economic and political environments within
which human activity takes place generate these driving forces.
As a result of the environmental scan the three most prominent driving forces were identified.
These driving forces are the centrality of networks, especially social networks, technological
innovation and the prominence of transformation, especially institutional transformation, in
human endeavours.
These three issues related to geopolitics and socio­economic environments are substantially
different in the contemporary world compared with anything in past human experience. The
first is the integration of the world community and the rise of networks, especially social
networks. Second, the spread of technology and the growing wealth of many new states and
networks have resulted in the simultaneous emergence of a host of new middle­ranking
military, political and economic powers across the world, but also great inequality between
states, groups and individuals. Thirdly, societal change has been accelerated to new levels,
resulting in transformation being a constant reality affecting nearly all social entities.
Within this framework, futures methodologies could be used with the aim of making a positive
contribution in search for a better life in South Africa and Africa. The communication of
scenarios developed by Anglo American, Nedcor/Old Mutual and Mont Fleur during the late
1980s and early 1990s, for example, played a significant role in convincing decision makers to
choose the high road to a negotiated settlement and not the low road to demise. It seems to be
the right time for futures studies techniques to contribute to sustainable development not only
in South Africa, but also in Africa.
New ideas are not always the most critical element for the futurist. Of greater importance is
to develop strategies and to mobilise political will with the aim of implementing solutions. For
the futurist the challenge remains to create a link between the decision­maker and the
possible solutions.
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