Fulltext - SBU

Predictor
variables
Validating
criteria
Statistical
methods
Results*
Sensitivity and
specificity
Study
quality and
relevance
Comments
2-step prediction
1. Age 5: Cut-off
for high risk ≥dmft
2. 2 yrs after eruption
of permanent
1st molars: cutt of
for high risk DFT occl
≥1
DMFT ≥3
DMFS ≥4
Proportion
high risk:
Not stated
Se, Sp
For ≥3 DMFT
Se: 78%; Sp: 88%;
PPV: 0.51; NPV:
0.96; accuracy: 0.87
For ≥4 DMFT
Se: 85%; Sp: 85%;
PPV: 0.37; NPV:
0.98; accuracy: 0.85
Low
Heterogeneous
sample.
Incomplete
data
reporting
Estimated no of new
fillings after 1 yr =
≥2 or caries experience
= >1 DFS or
>0 DFS approximal
or salivary flow ≤0.7
ml/min and buffer
capacity =1 or
combined MS and LB
in saliva or combined
DFS and MS, LB in
saliva
≥1 new DFS
≥2 new DFS
Proportion
high risk: 1/3
Se, Sp,
PPV,
NPV*
For ≥1 new DFS
Se: 54%; Sp: 70%;
PPV: 0.71; NPV:
0.52
For ≥2 new DFS
Se: 58%; Sp: 67%;
PPV: 0.57; NPV:
0.68*
Low
Bias from
treatment
likely. Effect
of different
predictors
cannot be
evaluated
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KAPITEL 5 • Riskbedömning
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