SCHRIFTENREIHE SCHIFFBAU Festschrift anlässlich des 100 ...

The numerical modeling of the sinking sequence was done in two parts. The early phase was
modeled with the program HSVA ROLLS capable of modeling the ship motions while turning
together with the dynamic flooding and sloshing of the water on the vehicle deck. After the
heeling angle of about 50°-60° this modeling gets out the domain, where it is still accurate.
The later phase of the sinking sequence was modeled hydrostatically by the TUHH using the
program ARCHIMEDES II. The use of hydrostatic modeling for the later phase should be
sufficiently accurate as the dynamics effects play a minor role in the later phase of the
sinking process.
As one can see in Figure 78 the curves computed with the HSVA ROLLS and the
Fig. 78 The development of list on the MV Estonia reconstructed from the survivors’ testimonies
and computed with numerical models.
ARCHIMEDES II cover the whole sinking sequence, and correlate satisfactorily with the two
empirical curves established by the HSVA-Consortium.
One of the curves computed with the HSVA ROLLS was used as input in the evacuation
simulation program AENEAS. As this first result was too optimistic with about 530 persons
abandoning the ship, the roll motion curve was elevated with 2.5°, that is, about 8 percent.
After this elevation in the input data the evacuation simulation gives about 280 persons
abandoning the ship, which correlates well with the known facts of the accident. These
numerical models together with other known facts on the accident were used to give best
available information on the course of the accident. In the following paragraphs the main
results and conclusions are listed.
The HSVA-Consortium investigation was limited to the ship sinking sequence and evacuation
process. Structural failure processes related to the MV Estonia during the accident were not
part of this investigation.
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