SCHRIFTENREIHE SCHIFFBAU Festschrift anlässlich des 100 ...

or stopped at. Therefore the vessel must have had a track very similar to those shown in
Figures 31, 33, 37 and 41.
� Items that dropped from the ship distributed along the track of the vessel over a
significant distance as shown with the red ellipse in Figure 3 and in all figures showing
the ship’s track. Therefore it is likely that towards the end of its track the ship, while
drifting slowly, did not heel over rapidly dropping many items on one spot, but that the
heeling continuously increased as the vessel was drifting.
� Shortly before the MV Estonia sank, it had a heeling angle of approximately 125-140° to
starboard. The stern of the vessel probably pointed approximately in the direction of
300°-325°, which is plausible considering the effect of the SW wind on the drifting ship.
The ship sank stern first and was mostly likely turned, pivoting around its stern on the sea
bottom, towards port by the current, until it reached its final position on the sea bottom.
The wreck of the ship lies in the direction of about 95°, that is, its stern points
approximately in the direction of 275°.
� The computed results: ship motions, flooding of the vehicle deck, flow of water into
compartments below, the time spent on the track, etc. fit quite well to the survivors’
testimonies and other known facts on the accident. Therefore it is not very likely that the
real MV Estonia accident scenario would have been essentially different than the one
modeled numerically here.
� The behavior of the vessel is crudely similar to that already described in the JAIC Final
Report. Our analysis reveals details, which in general support the conclusions made
already by the JAIC. There is, however, a certain leeway in the accident scenario: It
cannot e.g. be said exactly, how high the speed of the vessel was just before the start of
the accident, or what was the turning radius of the vessel during the turn to port. In this
respect the real accident scenario cannot be defined as accurately as described in the
JAIC Final Report. Slight deviations from the course of events presented by the JAIC, or
in this report as well, are possible. A certain uncertainty in details remains, even if the
described scenario as a whole is the most likely one presently known.
8.5 Evacuation
� There were at least 989 passengers and crew onboard the MV Estonia. Of these about
237-310 abandoned the ship, and 137 survived.
� The MV Estonia got a large list relatively fast. It cannot be excluded that in very similar
circumstances the ship could also have capsized. In the ship motion simulations it is very
easy to get this result with only small changes in the input data. If the ship had capsized,
it can be argued that the casualty rate would have been even higher than the 86 percent,
it is now.
� No organized evacuation took place. This could have helped many passengers to
abandon the ship.
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