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Extrapolating the study’s findings into the future is an uncertain
exercise, Milne acknowledged. “This is what we call a non-linear system.
You can’t just get a straight line today and push it into the future. Chances
are you’re going to depart from a straight line.”
Even so, he said, most experts agree that a simple extrapolation of
current trends “would give you a minimum estimate of what to expect in
100 years.” That would yield a 30-centimetre rise in sea levels, he said. “I
think we’re already committed to at least that amount.”
Predicting the upper limit is more difficult, partly because ice sheets
can change very quickly, Milne said. But if ice sheet melting continues to
accelerate, sea levels could rise by as much as a metre by the end of the
century, he said.
One caveat is that the researchers’ study covers a relatively short time
frame in climate change terms, Milne said. That means the acceleration in
Greenland could be just a blip.
But Milne said that’s unlikely, pointing out that this past summer, for
the first time in centuries, the whole surface of the Greenland ice sheet
was melting.
“All of these pieces of evidence are coming together to suggest that
what Greenland’s doing right now is quite anomalous,” he said. “Chances
are it’s not just a blip that we’ll recover from.”
Yuck: Our Seafood Is Loaded with Unspeakably Gross Pollutants
By
Jill Richardson
This article was published in partnership with GlobalPossibilities.org [3].