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Outdoor Lighting and Crime - Amper

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“… crimes against people on or around public transport have almost doubled in the<br />

last five years.” “[These] crimes mostly occurred on trains <strong>and</strong> railway stations… “<br />

“… commuters’ fears are compounded by the unwelcoming appearance of the<br />

stations, many of which are covered in graffiti, empty or smashed bottles <strong>and</strong> other<br />

litter.”<br />

“Stations are often isolated <strong>and</strong> users must walk under tracks, through dimly lit [sic;<br />

typically they are lit to about 80 lux!] tunnels, to get to surrounding streets.”<br />

“Sometimes there are dodgy characters around, even during the day.”<br />

“I know how dark it is here at night, so I never come here at night on my own.”<br />

“… to the platform, where the light cast by the yellow lamps is grainy <strong>and</strong> dirty…”<br />

“Many of the violent assaults were the result of gangs congregating at railway<br />

stations…”<br />

This material is consistent with the lighting, commerce <strong>and</strong> crime hypothesis. The problems<br />

described are similar to those experienced in many other rail systems (eg Easteal <strong>and</strong> Wilson<br />

2000). Current plans to deal with the problem include even more lighting!<br />

5.6.2 Light <strong>and</strong> crime in the inner city<br />

5.6.2.1 Growth in crime<br />

A numerical example from the real world can be used to illustrate more of the issues raised in<br />

this work. In central Melbourne, crime increased by 24% from 1997 through 2001 (Vicpol<br />

2002b), while Melbourne skyglow luminance increased by about 32% in the same time. If<br />

this observed exponential rate is sustained, it would take a little over 17 years in all for<br />

skyglow to increase by 3.375 times, the mean increase in lighting applying to the papers in the<br />

Farrington <strong>and</strong> Welsh (2002a,b) meta-analysis. Assuming for this discussion that, in the<br />

absence of any extraneous influences, the 1997 to 2001 lighting <strong>and</strong> crime relationship would<br />

hold for another 13 years, the accompanying crime growth over the 17 years would be an<br />

increase of 2.5 times. To put this in context with the measure used in the meta-analysis, it is<br />

equivalent to a cross-product ratio of 0.4.<br />

For the whole state of Victoria, the total number of crimes was about 15 times that in central<br />

Melbourne to begin with. In the absence of data for outdoor lighting growth across the state,<br />

ie assuming that the lighting growth rate in the rest of the state is as for the central city, the<br />

cross-product ratio for 17 years would be about 0.7. The difference from 0.4 reflects the<br />

slower growth of state-wide crime compared with that of urban crime, inter alia. The crossproduct<br />

ratio for suburban crime could be expected to be somewhere in between 0.4 <strong>and</strong> 0.7.<br />

Comparing this with the suspect cross-product ratios for Dudley <strong>and</strong> Stoke-on-Trent studies,<br />

1.44 <strong>and</strong> 1.72 respectively, a first-order correction to the monetary savings prematurely<br />

derived in Painter <strong>and</strong> Farrington (2001b) might well consist of simply changing the sign to<br />

get the cost instead. On this indication, putting taxpayer money into brighter lighting looks to<br />

be very costly indeed for everyone.<br />

87

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