Space Security Index

Space Security 2011
124
contract for 12 GPS IIIA satellites, which are to begin launching in 2014; included in this
contract is a Capability Insertion Program to mature technologies for the future IIIB and
IIIC segments. 105 Under current plans, the GPS III payload will be delivered in 2011 for
integration with the prototype GPS Non-ight Satellite Trailblazer. 106 Because of the health
of the existing constellation, as well as GPS IIF delays, the Air Force has been considering
a slower production rate. 107 A September GAO Report noted progress in the DOD’s
management of the program, but cautioned that persistent risks could aect the launch of
the subsequent blocks of satellites. e report found that a delay in the launch of GPS IIIA
satellites could reduce the size of the constellation to fewer than the 24 satellites needed to
meet GPS user needs. 108
Military ocials have also expressed concerns about the increasing vulnerability of the system.
On 20 January, General Norton Schwartz, Chief of Sta of the Air Force, highlighted GPSsignal
vulnerability during times of war and urged the U.S. military to lessen its dependence
on the system. 109 is reliance was highlighted in June when a software compatibility issue,
associated with the IIF block of satellites, made between 8,000 and 10,000 military GPS
receivers useless for days. 110 Ocials quickly implemented xes to address the issue, but
Center for Strategic and International Studies fellow James Lewis described the event as
a warning, “in the context where people are every day trying to gure out how to disrupt
GPS.” 111
2010 Development
Russia continues to lead in military satellite launches; GLONASS nears full operational capacity
Navigation/GLONASS
Early in the year, Russia announced the launch of at least seven Global’naya Navigatsionnaya
Sputnikovaya Sistema (GLONASS) satellites in order to achieve full operational capability of
the satellite navigation system. 112 A total of 3.7-billion rubles were allocated for the program
for 2010-2011. 113 By September 2010, the system was providing 98 per cent of global
coverage; one Roscosmos ocial predicted that, by the end of 2011, its performance would
be comparable to the U.S. GPS. 114
ree GLONASS satellites were successfully launched on 1 March, their frequencies
activated within a couple of weeks. 115 ree more were launched on 2 September, with
two slated for operational use and one serving as backup. 116 Another three-satellite launch
attempted on 5 December, which would have allowed the completion of the constellation,
suddenly failed when the Proton-M rocket deviated eight degrees from course and fell
into the Pacic Ocean. 117 Following the failure, Anatoli Perminov, head of Roscosmos,
announced that all Proton launches would be suspended until an investigation on the
failure was completed. 118 He also announced plans to activate two spares already in orbit, as
well as to turn a next-generation demonstration model — GLONASS-K — to operational
service. 119 Perminov later said that, despite the “heavy loss,” which analysts have estimated to
cost $160-million, GLONASS would be fully operational after only a three-month delay. 120
e investigation revealed that the failure was due to human error in calculating the formula
for the amount of liquid oxygen, whose excessive weight apparently caused the launcher
to deviate from its planned trajectory. 121 Two space ocials were red and others were
reprimanded. 122 e GLONASS-K launch was eventually postponed until 2011 because the
satellite’s ground complex had not been completed. 123 By the end of 2010, the constellation
had only 20 functional satellites of the 26 in orbit, with 23 operational satellites needed for
full operational capability.