Space Security Index

Space Security 2011
158
ight-test with past SC-19 ASAT ight-tests.” 91 China’s claim that no debris from this test
remained on-orbit was conrmed by the leaked cable.
A senior ocer in the Russian Air and Space defense forces, which are slated to be integrated
by 2011, 92 claimed in an interview with Ekho Moskvy radio that they are developing a
“fundamentally new weapon” to deal with space threats. 93 Col. Eduard Sigalov said in the
interview that this weapon was being developed to “destroy potential targets in space,” 94
though it remains unclear what the specic characteristics of such a weapon could be.
Space Security Impact
e development of directed energy and ASAT weapons has a direct impact on space
security. Such capabilities enable an actor to intentionally restrict secure access to space
by others by compromising the physical and operational integrity of space assets. While
possession of these capabilities does not necessarily entail their imminent use, it could foster
an arms race and hasten the weaponization of space. In any case, the development and testing
of ASAT capabilities remain highly contentious. Moreover, increasing proliferation of ASAT
technology is also likely to be destabilizing at the regional level. India’s stated intentions
regarding ASAT capabilities, for instance, have already spurred Pakistan to increase its
nuclear arsenal.
Trend 8.3: Increased access to space-based negation-enabling
capabilities
Deploying space-based ASATs — using kinetic-kill, directed energy, or conventional
explosive techniques — would require enabling technologies somewhat more advanced than
the fundamental requirements for orbital launch. While microsatellites, maneuverability,
and other autonomous proximity operations are essential building blocks for a space-based
negation system, they are also advantageous for a variety of civil, commercial, and nonnegation
military programs.
Space-based weapons targeting satellites with conventional explosives, referred to as “space
mines,” could employ microsatellites to maneuver near a satellite and explode within close
range. Microsatellites are relatively inexpensive to develop and launch, and have a long
lifespan; their intended purpose is dicult to determine until detonation. Moreover, due to
its small size, a space-mine microsatellite can be hard to detect.
Microsatellite technology has become widespread, involving an array of civil, military,
commercial, and academic actors. In 2000, the partnership between China and Surrey
Satellite Technology Ltd. of the U.K. saw the launch of the Tsinghua-1 microsatellite
and companion Surrey Nanosatellite Application Platform to test on-orbit rendezvous
capabilities. 95
A variety of U.S. programs have developed advanced technologies that would be foundational
for a space-based conventional anti-satellite program, including maneuverability, docking, and
onboard optics. e USAF Experimental Spacecraft System (XSS) employed microsatellites
to test proximity operations, including autonomous rendezvous, maneuvering, and close-up
inspection of a target. XSS-11 was launched in 2005 and ew successful repeat rendezvous
maneuvers. e fact that the program was linked to the Advanced Weapons Technology
element of the budget suggests that it could potentially evolve into an ASAT program. 96