Space Security Index

order of years or decades, there are several mitigation methods that could potentially be used,
consisting of constant thrust applications to gradually change the NEO’s orbit over time. If
warning times are relatively short, then only certain kinetic methods can be applied. Kinetic
deection methods may include ramming the NEO with a series of kinetic projectiles, but
some researchers have advocated the use of nearby explosions of nuclear weapons to try and
change the trajectory of the NEO. However, this method would create additional threats to
the environment and stability of outer space and would have complex technical challenges
and policy implications.
As of July 2011, there are 8,037 known NEAs, 828 1 km in diameter or larger. 118 e number
of NEOs is expected to jump to over 10,000 in the next 15 years, requiring international
decision-making on those objects that present a threat. As a result, focus is now shifting
toward governance for NEO detection and mitigation.
2010 Development
International awareness of the NEO problem and discussions on solutions continue to increase
On 15 October, the Director of the Oce of Science and Technology Policy in the White
House sent a formal letter to both houses of Congress that outlined U.S. government
activities, procedures, roles, and responsibilities in responding to the NEO impact threat. 119
e letter detailed historical, current, and future NEO detection and tracking programs and
compliance with Congressional direction. 120 It also detailed the domestic and international
notication procedures in the event a threatening asteroid is detected, and the emergency
response procedures to mitigate an impact.
At the end of October, a workshop was held at the ESA oces in Darmstadt, Germany,
to discuss NEO deection mission planning and operations. 121 e event was organized by
the Secure World Foundation and the Association of Space Explorers in cooperation with
ESA. e workshop brought together technical and policy experts from several national
space agencies and focused on the interagency communication and coordination necessary to
deect threatening asteroids. A workshop report summarized the group’s recommendations,
which were presented to the UN COPUOS Action Team 14 on NEOs. 122
In November it was reported that the U.S. DOD was still working on providing data
collected by military satellites on bolides to the NEO science community. 123 Military
satellites designed to detect missile launches and explosions can also detect asteroids entering
the Earth’s atmosphere. e data on asteroid impacts is unclassied and in the past was
provided to the NEO science community, but such information sharing ceased several years
ago. e Chief of Space and Cyberspace Operational Integration stated that work is still
ongoing to determine how best to share the bolide data, and where the resources to do so
will come from. 124
Space Security Impact
An understanding of the potential threat posed by NEOs has begun to move from the
astronomy community to the broader policy community. Discussions and progress on
international detection, warning, collaboration, and decision-making are a positive step for
space security, although follow-through is still lacking. e establishment of international
governance mechanisms to respond to the NEO threat will likely prove benecial in other
areas of space security.
The Space Environment
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