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Chapter One Study context, aims and e-commerce trends This Chapter places the study into context. It sets out the study aims and discusses how these are achieved. The Chapter also aims to establish some dimensions of the remarkable transformation that e-commerce is bringing in Australia and globally. 1.1 The aims of the study There is compelling evidence that the economy is in the midst of a major structural change. The challenge that this study addresses is to forecast the structural change that e-commerce may bring. It aims to provide an indication of the likely nature of changes that are in store and their flow on impact through the economy at large using quantitative measures where practical, recognising that information about the nature of the change that is underway is still fragmentary. While taking into account the developments that can be expected abroad, the focus is upon what greater utilisation of e-commerce will mean for Australia. 1.2 Approach to the study This study has combined the application of economic models based on theoretical frameworks with qualitative input from business leaders to form a rigorous and balanced approach that seeks to minimise the pitfalls inherent in each used in isolation. Industry input was obtained from an Industry Reference Group while the MONASH model was used as the framework for the main quantitative part of the analysis. The Industry Reference Group The Industry Reference Group (IRG) comprised of business leaders from selected industry sectors that were invited to join. All of the IRG members have considerable practical expertise and an understanding about the key strategic issues. All hold responsibilities for the use of e-commerce in conducting their business, assessing its impact upon them, or advising about e-commerce issues in general. While drawing on IRG advice and input, decisions about the direct impacts, the nature of the flow on impacts and other findings remained the responsibility of the consulting team. A framework for economic analysis The MONASH model is a computable general equilibrium model of the Australian economy and provides a powerful tool for analysing structural change of this nature. Its use also imposes considerable discipline. It requires analysts to concentrate on impacts that are measurable in much the same way as those impacts are measured in the national accounts. Most importantly, in using the model it is not possible to extrapolate growth beyond the underlying capacity of the economy to deliver it within likely resource constraints, just as the real world economy is subject to similar constraints. 1
Page 2 and 3: © Commonwealth of Australia 2000 I
Page 5 and 6: Table of contents Foreword ........
Page 7 and 8: Part 2 - Case studies Section One I
Page 9 and 10: Executive summary E-commerce is sti
Page 11: Part 1— economic analysis
Page 15 and 16: Within the business-to-business cat
Page 17 and 18: Table 1.4 Projected growth in econo
Page 19 and 20: Chapter Two Economic issues What di
Page 21 and 22: Exhibit 2.1 Disintermediation effec
Page 23 and 24: Table 2.1 E-commerce impact on vari
Page 25 and 26: Chapter Three Changes ahead—indus
Page 27 and 28: Health Significant efficiencies sta
Page 29 and 30: Chapter Four Economy-wide assessmen
Page 31 and 32: Direct changes and flow on impacts
Page 33 and 34: consumption relative to economic ac
Page 35 and 36: External competitiveness Greater us
Page 37 and 38: Industry outcomes Greater use of e-
Page 39 and 40: Food products The food products sec
Page 41 and 42: people with differing occupational
Page 43 and 44: Tasmania and the Northern Territory
Page 45 and 46: Table 4.2 Regional growth and emplo
Page 47: The data for country regions (Exhib
Page 50 and 51: impacts are a reasonable representa
Page 53 and 54: Chapter Six Policy implications and
Page 55 and 56: Appendix A Study methodology, shock
Page 57 and 58: confidence. This is at the expense
Page 59 and 60: All of the GDP gain generated by ch
Page 61 and 62: (s11) Saving of particular inputs I
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Table A.1 continued Commodity Per c
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Table A.2 continued Engine & Boiler
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Table A.2 continued Safety Inspecto
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Table A.3 continued Industries 2007
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B.2 The structure of MONASH The cor
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simulations it is assumed that the
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Table B.1 (Continued) MONASH-RR Reg
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C.2 Forecasts for macroeconomic var
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other grains, iron and non-iron ore
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The numbers in column (II) of Table
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Productivity growth over the histor
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forecast of a 0.1 per cent decline
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Productivity growth in the construc
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Employment prospects in the sector
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Table D.1 continued Textiles, cloth
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Table D.1 continued Health, educati
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Table D.2 continued 45 Bags and Con
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Part 2 — case studies
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Industry sectors’ use of e-commer
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e-commerce were chosen. Key questio
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Banking For some time now most of t
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2.3 Cost savings Banks are keen to
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2.5 Changing business modes Branch
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Banks are also looking to take adva
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NAB, as a multinational, is already
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activities such as consumer electro
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Box 3.2 Building a business on e-co
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One of the issues for all industrie
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108
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Box 4.2 Australia Post and e-commer
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Opportunities are being created for
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Value can be transferred into Austr
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Continued use of email and the deve
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E-commerce allows some flexibility
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120
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are introduced to market at a start
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educe the duplication of assessment
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6.3 Cost savings as a result of ele
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The primary e-commerce tools for im
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New service modes and channels to t
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132
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This Section will review the implic
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of greater depth. (It should be not
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consumers watch five per cent less
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artist is the promotion which airpl
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New costs The fragmentation and reg
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gambled. The development of Interne
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146
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Making a purchase over the Internet
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Customers who access troubleshootin
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they does not actually sell those i
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Key points There are few other sect
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e-commerce allows quicker order pro
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9.3 New costs The demand for busine
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How a ticket is sold, through an ag
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Box 10.1 Case study: E-commerce and
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The education and training sector h
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166
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11.2 Production Manufacturing busin
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Opportunities for re-intermediation
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Value could transfer within the sec
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174
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years’ time. 30 This reflects an
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seeks to provide a point of referen
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To a small extent, direct selling t
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182
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Box 13.1 Austmine—a window for th
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Box 13.2 Leaving mining sites for w
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188
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