beyond pt 0 23/1

impacts are a reasonable representation of the changes to be
actually realised).
This is not to say that the flow on effects from the trade dimension, are
insignificant. Slow or fast adoption of e-commerce in Australia relative to
the rate of adoption in the rest of the world can be expected to result in
different outcomes.
A danger for Australia if it lags behind the rest of the world in the
adoption of e-commerce methods is that it will lose market share in
tourism and elaborately transformed manufactures to competitor
countries. In terms of the sets of shocks listed in Appendix A, Australia
will fail to acquire all or part of the benefits of shock 13, in other words
Australia will miss the opportunity to increase foreign awareness of its
products. On the other hand, if it was a leader in some areas, particularly
say in relation to some other economies in the Asia-Pacific, it could obtain
a first mover advantage.
Exhibit 5.1 below shows the paths of consumption (a legitimate measure
of economic welfare in the MONASH simulations reported in this study)
in three MONASH simulations:
• the central case simulation of the effects of e-commerce already
discussed in the previous sections;
• a simulation in which Australia lags other countries in adopting
e-commerce; and
• a simulation in which Australia leads other countries.
In the lag simulation, it is assumed that Australia increases foreign
awareness of its products (shock 13) at half the rate assumed in the
standard simulation, and in the lead simulation it is assumed that
Australia increases foreign awareness of its products at twice the rate
assumed in the standard simulation. In the lag simulation it is assumed
that the loss of market share relative to the standard simulation is
permanent. That is, after the assumed ten-year adoption period, the
e-commerce induced increase in foreign demand for Australian products is
permanently left at half the value it had in the standard simulation.
Similarly, in the lead simulation it is assumed that the e-commerce
induced gain in foreign demand for Australian products is permanently
left at twice the value it had in the standard simulation.
Exhibit 5.1
Consumption in central, lead and lag simulations (% deviation from base case)
5
4.5
Leader
4
Central Case
3.5
3
Laggard
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1997
1998
1999
2001
2002
Source: MONASH model results.
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
38