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As could be expected, if Australia lags the rest of the world it will obtain
less benefit. The simulation results indicate a long-run deviation in
consumption in the lag simulation is about 0.3 percentage points below
that in the central case simulation. Looking at what would happen if
Australia were among the leaders, the long-run deviation in consumption
is about 0.6 percentage points above that in the standard simulation.
The value of gaining extra market share by leading is about 13.9 per cent
of a year’s consumption. On the other hand, the consumption cost of
lagging is about 6.6 per cent of a year ’s consumption.
Clearly there are compelling economic reasons to seek to ensure that
Australia does not lag other economies in the implementation of
e-commerce. The benefits of shifting into a leading position are relatively
large and would be worth investing considerable resources in seeking to
obtain that outcome in as many e-commerce fields as practicable.
5.3 Some unanswered questions
A question that has not been addressed in this analysis includes what
would happen if there was a differential rate of adoption of e-commerce
in the rest of the world. Would Australia’s prospects as a leader or laggard
change if there was greater information about the relative performance of
the US, Europe, Japan and other economies in the Asia-Pacific region?
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