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maximum choice. There may be a loss of market share for Fairfax, which
currently dominates classified advertising in Sydney and Melbourne.
However there may also be growth in the market. Smaller operators, like
Trading Post and PMP’s property.com may struggle to compete against the
better known brands.
Jobs and skills
There is a risk that, over a ten year period, media organisations will
not manage the transition to an online environment and there will be
contraction of employment, including employment of the producers
of content.
External dimension
Readers now have much greater access to international publications than
ever before. Equally, there is scope for specialised content produced in
Australia to attract international readers. No measurable economic impact
from these trends can be detected because the linkage between readership
and revenue online is so weak.
7.3 Television
The sector
The television industry in Australia includes 48 private broadcasters, of
whom 34 are free-to-air businesses, seven are pay television business and
seven are community broadcasters. The industry is dominated by the
three large commercial broadcasters.
The industry is growing strongly, with revenue in 1996–97 of
$3.35 billion representing a 51 per cent increase in total income
compared with 1993–94. (ABS 8680) pay-TV revenue has grown to in
excess of $1 billion since then. The emergence of pay-TV provides a
contrast with online news, with people prepared to pay for a television
service they used to get for free.
The outlook for television is clouded by a combination of political,
corporate, media and social issues. The politics dictate that companies
cannot control both print and television media. The corporate issues
involve the tussles between the Packer Group, News Corporation, Telstra
and the Seven Network. The technological issues are an uncertainty about
what convergence of television and the PC will look like. The social issue
relates to the choice of technology and whether we will continue to sit in
the lounge room as a family, or retreat to our private PCs.
One solid trend that can be detected is the fragmentation of
programming. Whether television is delivered over cable or by satellite or
the web, there will be a large growth in the range of channels available.
Another likely trend is that growth in direct access to international
television programming.
A third conclusion is that with close to half of all free time allocated to it,
television will remain a powerful medium for some time yet.
The biggest impact of the Internet upon television is its impact on
audiences. Although Australian television executives report there is no
sign of this, it is now well established that it is taking place in the US.
Intelliquest’s tracking of Internet usage shows that 26 per cent of Internet
users watch less television. A recent report by Forrester shows that online
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