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other grains, iron and non-iron ores, oil and gas and meat products. Poor
prospects are given to exports of wool, sheep, fishing, lightly processed
wool and cotton, and iron and steel.
For international tourism, the latest forecasts provided by the Tourism
Forecasting Committee (TFC) were used. However, a downward
adjustment for the effects of the GST was made. The introduction of a
GST harms the export prospects of the tourism industries. Commodity
exports will not be subject to a GST. On the other hand, foreign tourists
will find that most of their purchases in Australia are subject to the GST.
For tourists, the projections suggest that the foreign-currency price of
their holidays in Australia will jump by about 3.5 per cent. Taking this
into account the forecast rate of growth of tourism was adjusted from the
TFC number of 7.4 per cent annual growth to the number shown in Table
C.2, 6.0 per cent annual growth.
Given the macro forecast for aggregate exports in Table C.1, the forecasts
for traditional exports and tourism exports shown in Table C.2, the
model deduces an average growth rate for the volume of non-traditional
exports. Volumes of these exports are forecast to grow at an average
annual rate of 6.3 per cent. This is less than the average growth rate of
recent years. However, non-traditional export volumes have now reached
a level that makes continued growth at such high rates unlikely.
C.2.3 Assumptions for changes in technology and tastes
(Table C.3)
Table C.3 shows assumptions for changes in the preferences of households
and in the production technologies of industries, divided into 22 sectors.
These are aggregations of the preference and technology assumptions
introduced to MONASH at its full level of disaggregation, i.e. at the level
of 112 industries and 114 commodities. 28 The detailed input, shown in
Appendix Table D.1, are extrapolations of trends calculated from a
MONASH simulation for the period 1986–87 to 1993–94.
28 MONASH recognises two more commodities than industries. Outside of the agricultural sector there is
a one-to-one relationship between industries and commodities. For agriculture, the model makes
explicit allowance for multi-product industries, with seven agricultural industries producing nine
agricultural commodities.
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