beyond pt 0 23/1
beyond pt 0 23/1
beyond pt 0 23/1
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Exhibit 4.3<br />
Industry/sectoral impacts: cluster one (% deviation from base case)<br />
6 entertainment<br />
hotels & personal<br />
services<br />
5<br />
transport and storage<br />
4<br />
communication<br />
3<br />
banking and finance<br />
2<br />
education<br />
1<br />
health<br />
0<br />
food<br />
-1<br />
other<br />
manufacturing<br />
-2<br />
-3<br />
1997<br />
1998<br />
1999<br />
2000<br />
2001<br />
2002<br />
2003<br />
2004<br />
2005<br />
2006<br />
2007<br />
2008<br />
2009<br />
2010<br />
2011<br />
2012<br />
2013<br />
2014<br />
2015<br />
2016<br />
IT and other equipment<br />
transport equip.<br />
business services<br />
Source: MONASH model results.<br />
wholesale & retail<br />
trade and repairs<br />
Banking and Finance<br />
Activity in the banking and finance sector will be larger than the base case<br />
forecast by 2.7 per cent by 2007. Major cost reductions are achieved in<br />
the sector due to e-commerce enhancing its competitiveness. However,<br />
expansion of the sector is limited by low price-sensitivities of demand.<br />
Health<br />
The health sector will rise by 2.7 per cent by 2007. Health expenditure<br />
increases are facilitated by higher government revenue flow on<br />
implications of higher levels in activity. The sector therefore broadly<br />
tracks changes in GDP at large.<br />
Education<br />
Education will rise by 2.2 per cent by 2007. As with health, education<br />
increases are largely related to increases in government revenue and<br />
spending that flows from growth in other sectors and the economy<br />
at large.<br />
Transport<br />
Activity in the transport sector will be some 2.2 per cent larger than the<br />
base case by 2007. This sector owes its strong positive result to air<br />
transport, which benefits from increases in tourism demand. The increase<br />
in activity in this sector is sustained well after the initial changes have been<br />
absorbed, reflecting the compounding benefits of encouraging growth in<br />
an activity that is already forecast to grow strongly in the base case.<br />
Other manufacturing<br />
Other manufacturing is anticipated to be larger than the base case forecast<br />
by 1.6 per cent by the year 2007. The output paths for most of these<br />
industries are closely related to that of investment. Industries highly<br />
exposed to import competition are adversely affected by real dollar<br />
appreciation especially in the early years of the simulation period.<br />
Industries such as this one with considerable export potential will<br />
perform well.<br />
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