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Study Process The involvement of the IRG and the MONASH model was undertaken in an iterative process mapped out in the exhibit below. Exhibit A.1 Conducting the MONASH Modelling IRG initial input on impacts and scenarios Sectoral Input Industry Industry Industry Industry Industry Industry MONASH model Non–modelled impacts/ case studies Reiteration IRG assessment Report Source: The Allen Consulting Group. The overall strategy in evaluating the economic impacts of e-commerce can be set out with the assistance of a Venn diagram, as shown in Exhibit A.2. This is discussed below. Exhibit A.2 Impacts of E-commerce All possible Electronic Commerce Impacts Most probable Impacts Qualitative Case Studies Qualitative Case Studies Source: The Allen Consulting Group. Universal impact. The box represents the totality of what e-commerce could bring in the future. There is already a vast literature discussing the future trends of e-commerce. It is confusing and often contradictory. Most probable impacts. Even today it is possible to discern a number of major directions in the data with some confidence if only because of the ability of humans to recognise patterns. There is also a degree of selffulfilling prophecy in this area. Researchers and businesses will focus their efforts on areas that are generally seen as being most prospective and rewarding today. Concentrating on the major impacts will narrow the scope to a much smaller portion of the potential impact of e-commerce. Quantifiable forecasts. This narrows the forecast about expected outcomes to those that can be predicted with a reasonable degree of 44
confidence. This is at the expense of breadth and detail. A good many of the expected impacts, mostly those of a qualitative nature are not included in the modelling in exchange for increased confidence in our results. Non-quantifiable impacts. The study will reinject some of the detail and technical insight about the impact of e-commerce by using a case study approach in a limited number of key activities. This will work to maintain a balance between confidence and detail. These are included in the sectoral reports in Part 2. Within the broad definition e-commerce can also be viewed as being formed of a number of differing layers of activity. The layers that are most often discussed in the industry and their relative significance is set out in the exhibit below. Box A.1 Layers of e-commerce activity Consumerto-consumer Business-to-consumer Business-to-business Electronic commerce infrastructure EFT, credit card payments and the payments system EFT and Other Payments Systems is the transactional foundation upon which a great deal of e-commerce is based or follows. There are already a great number of transactions in the economy that occur at this level. Key activities at this level include use of Automatic Teller Machines (ATMs), the huge raft of transactions that occur daily between banks in the payments system, as well as credit card payments, electronic payrolls and many more. E-commerce infrastructure includes network service providers, hardware, software and enabling services. Business-to-business represents the major proportion of e-commerce activity. The focus of business-to-business e-commerce has been on the inter-corporate or inter-organisational supply chain, although non-supply chain interactions are also significant. Business-to-consumer e-commerce can involve electronic transactions in marketing, ordering and paying, after sales service and, in the case of intangible or virtual goods and services, even delivery. Consumer-to-consumer e-commerce consists primarily of websites where consumers deal directly with one another, such as online communities, free personal classifieds pages, auction houses such as eBay, and swap sites. Source: Based on OECD 1997b, Measuring E-commerce, Committee for Information, Computer and Communications Policy, Paris, OCDE/GD(97)185, p. 19. 45
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© Commonwealth of Australia 2000 I
Page 5 and 6: Table of contents Foreword ........
Page 7 and 8: Part 2 - Case studies Section One I
Page 9 and 10: Executive summary E-commerce is sti
Page 11 and 12: Part 1— economic analysis
Page 13 and 14: Chapter One Study context, aims and
Page 15 and 16: Within the business-to-business cat
Page 17 and 18: Table 1.4 Projected growth in econo
Page 19 and 20: Chapter Two Economic issues What di
Page 21 and 22: Exhibit 2.1 Disintermediation effec
Page 23 and 24: Table 2.1 E-commerce impact on vari
Page 25 and 26: Chapter Three Changes ahead—indus
Page 27 and 28: Health Significant efficiencies sta
Page 29 and 30: Chapter Four Economy-wide assessmen
Page 31 and 32: Direct changes and flow on impacts
Page 33 and 34: consumption relative to economic ac
Page 35 and 36: External competitiveness Greater us
Page 37 and 38: Industry outcomes Greater use of e-
Page 39 and 40: Food products The food products sec
Page 41 and 42: people with differing occupational
Page 43 and 44: Tasmania and the Northern Territory
Page 45 and 46: Table 4.2 Regional growth and emplo
Page 47: The data for country regions (Exhib
Page 50 and 51: impacts are a reasonable representa
Page 53 and 54: Chapter Six Policy implications and
Page 55: Appendix A Study methodology, shock
Page 59 and 60: All of the GDP gain generated by ch
Page 61 and 62: (s11) Saving of particular inputs I
Page 63 and 64: Table A.1 continued Commodity Per c
Page 65 and 66: Table A.2 continued Engine & Boiler
Page 67 and 68: Table A.2 continued Safety Inspecto
Page 69 and 70: Table A.3 continued Industries 2007
Page 71 and 72: B.2 The structure of MONASH The cor
Page 73 and 74: simulations it is assumed that the
Page 75 and 76: Table B.1 (Continued) MONASH-RR Reg
Page 77 and 78: C.2 Forecasts for macroeconomic var
Page 79 and 80: other grains, iron and non-iron ore
Page 81 and 82: The numbers in column (II) of Table
Page 83 and 84: Productivity growth over the histor
Page 85 and 86: forecast of a 0.1 per cent decline
Page 87 and 88: Productivity growth in the construc
Page 89 and 90: Employment prospects in the sector
Page 91 and 92: Table D.1 continued Textiles, cloth
Page 93 and 94: Table D.1 continued Health, educati
Page 95 and 96: Table D.2 continued 45 Bags and Con
Page 97: Part 2 — case studies
Page 100 and 101: Industry sectors’ use of e-commer
Page 102 and 103: e-commerce were chosen. Key questio
Page 104 and 105: Banking For some time now most of t
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2.3 Cost savings Banks are keen to
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2.5 Changing business modes Branch
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Banks are also looking to take adva
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NAB, as a multinational, is already
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activities such as consumer electro
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Box 3.2 Building a business on e-co
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One of the issues for all industrie
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108
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Box 4.2 Australia Post and e-commer
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Opportunities are being created for
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Value can be transferred into Austr
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Continued use of email and the deve
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E-commerce allows some flexibility
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120
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are introduced to market at a start
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educe the duplication of assessment
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6.3 Cost savings as a result of ele
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The primary e-commerce tools for im
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New service modes and channels to t
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132
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This Section will review the implic
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of greater depth. (It should be not
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consumers watch five per cent less
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artist is the promotion which airpl
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New costs The fragmentation and reg
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gambled. The development of Interne
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Making a purchase over the Internet
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Customers who access troubleshootin
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they does not actually sell those i
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Key points There are few other sect
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e-commerce allows quicker order pro
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9.3 New costs The demand for busine
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How a ticket is sold, through an ag
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Box 10.1 Case study: E-commerce and
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The education and training sector h
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166
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11.2 Production Manufacturing busin
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Opportunities for re-intermediation
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Value could transfer within the sec
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174
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years’ time. 30 This reflects an
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seeks to provide a point of referen
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To a small extent, direct selling t
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Box 13.1 Austmine—a window for th
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Box 13.2 Leaving mining sites for w
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