beyond pt 0 23/1

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7.5 Film and video production and distribution .................................... 141 7.6 Books ......................................................................................... 142 7.7 Gambling .................................................................................... 143 Section Eight Retailing ........................................................................................ 147 8.1 Description of the sector .............................................................. 147 8.2 Retail and the Internet ................................................................ 147 8.3 Cost savings ................................................................................ 148 8.4 New costs ................................................................................... 150 8.5 New business models .................................................................... 151 8.6 External dimensions .................................................................... 153 Section Nine Transport ....................................................................................... 155 9.1 Description of the sector .............................................................. 155 9.2 Cost savings ................................................................................ 156 9.3 New costs ................................................................................... 158 9.4 New business models .................................................................... 158 9.5 External dimension ...................................................................... 160 Section Ten Education ...................................................................................... 161 10.1 Description of the sector .............................................................. 161 10.2 Practical application of e-commerce ............................................... 161 10.3 Potential for cost savings ............................................................. 162 10.4 Industry structure/business models ............................................... 163 10.5 Jobs and skills ............................................................................ 163 10.6 External dimensions .................................................................... 164 Section Eleven Manufacturing ................................................................................ 167 11.1 Description of the sector .............................................................. 167 11.2 Production .................................................................................. 168 11.3 Distribution ................................................................................ 168 11.4 New business models .................................................................... 171 11.5 External dimensions .................................................................... 172 Section Twelve Agriculture .................................................................................... 175 12.1 Description of the sector .............................................................. 175 12.2 Cost savings ................................................................................ 176 12.3 New costs ................................................................................... 179 12.4 New business models .................................................................... 179 12.5 Potential changes to employment .................................................. 180 12.6 External dimensions .................................................................... 180 Section Thirteen Mining........................................................................................... 183 13.1 Description of the sector .............................................................. 183 13.2 Use of e-commerce ....................................................................... 183 13.3 Cost savings ................................................................................ 184 13.4 New costs ................................................................................... 185 13.5 New business models .................................................................... 185 13.6 Potential changes to employment .................................................. 186 13.7 External dimensions .................................................................... 186 viii
Executive summary E-commerce is stimulating a structural change in the economy. What difference will greater use of e-commerce make to Australia’s economy? The key finding of this study is that e-commerce will bring substantial net benefits to Australia’s economy. Winning industries are those that make most use of e-commerce. Some industries may experience some displacement. There should be net growth in employment. Competitiveness will be sensitive to changes in e-commerce use. E-commerce using the Internet is a new way of advertising, buying, selling and, in some cases, delivering goods and services. Open access to the electronic marketplace for households as well as businesses, large and small, has only existed for the last three or four years yet it is growing quickly. It is already clear that e-commerce will bring significant changes to business, consumers, government and the economy. Companies are changing the way that they undertake their business. New industries are emerging and old ones are getting a new lease of life. Others may not fit in this new environment and may decline. What will be the outcome of this complex and extensive structural change? The focus of this pilot study is upon change. In particular it concentrates upon what difference greater use of e-commerce will make to current forecasts of economic outcomes. The study therefore concentrates on activities that are viewed as being likely to experience significant change. This includes impacts brought about by the emerging widespread potential for consumers and businesses to undertake electronic transactions over the Internet. This is a new and rapidly growing activity that is not likely to have been fully factored in to most economic forecasts. Other aspects of e-commerce, including electronic transactions undertaken over less accessible or proprietary networks such as the payments system, the use of EDI, ATMs or EFTPOS are already largely factored in to the economic outlook. The net benefits will be realised if, as expected, widespread adoption of e-commerce proves to be a more efficient mode of doing business and the benefits exceed the costs. If this is the case, it could produce a growth dividend as a result of freeing resources that can be used in other parts of the economy. Simulation results obtained from the MONASH model indicate that the net impact could be a 2.7 per cent increase in the level of national output, and enhance consumption (a better indicator of material wellbeing) by about $10 billion within the next decade. The main sectors that expand are expected to be those that offer products and services that are amenable to e-commerce. This includes sectors such as media and entertainment, and banking and finance. Some sectors will be larger because of flowon effects as changes ripple through the economy; housing is one example. Industry sectors that are essentially ‘disintermediated’ by the use of e-commerce (such as retail and wholesale trade) may have lower output than otherwise. Industries involved in commodity exports may be sensitive to flow on impacts (particularly higher real wages and a higher real exchange rate). The efficiencies brought about by e-commerce are expected to result in changed employment opportunities. Some sectors will expand and increase job numbers, others will be smaller than otherwise. Overall, employment will expand. Demand is likely to be strongest in occupations that are related to tourism and associated support services. It is possible that a flow on impact of the productivity gains and growth could be a temporary minor deterioration in the balance of trade. Looking into the medium term, the export enhancing benefits will outweigh other factors and the trade situation will improve. ix
Page 2 and 3: © Commonwealth of Australia 2000 I
Page 5 and 6: Table of contents Foreword ........
Page 7: Part 2 - Case studies Section One I
Page 11 and 12: Part 1— economic analysis
Page 13 and 14: Chapter One Study context, aims and
Page 15 and 16: Within the business-to-business cat
Page 17 and 18: Table 1.4 Projected growth in econo
Page 19 and 20: Chapter Two Economic issues What di
Page 21 and 22: Exhibit 2.1 Disintermediation effec
Page 23 and 24: Table 2.1 E-commerce impact on vari
Page 25 and 26: Chapter Three Changes ahead—indus
Page 27 and 28: Health Significant efficiencies sta
Page 29 and 30: Chapter Four Economy-wide assessmen
Page 31 and 32: Direct changes and flow on impacts
Page 33 and 34: consumption relative to economic ac
Page 35 and 36: External competitiveness Greater us
Page 37 and 38: Industry outcomes Greater use of e-
Page 39 and 40: Food products The food products sec
Page 41 and 42: people with differing occupational
Page 43 and 44: Tasmania and the Northern Territory
Page 45 and 46: Table 4.2 Regional growth and emplo
Page 47: The data for country regions (Exhib
Page 50 and 51: impacts are a reasonable representa
Page 53 and 54: Chapter Six Policy implications and
Page 55 and 56: Appendix A Study methodology, shock
Page 57 and 58: confidence. This is at the expense
Page 59 and 60:
All of the GDP gain generated by ch
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(s11) Saving of particular inputs I
Page 63 and 64:
Table A.1 continued Commodity Per c
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Table A.2 continued Engine & Boiler
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Table A.2 continued Safety Inspecto
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Table A.3 continued Industries 2007
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B.2 The structure of MONASH The cor
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simulations it is assumed that the
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Table B.1 (Continued) MONASH-RR Reg
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C.2 Forecasts for macroeconomic var
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other grains, iron and non-iron ore
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The numbers in column (II) of Table
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Productivity growth over the histor
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forecast of a 0.1 per cent decline
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Productivity growth in the construc
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Employment prospects in the sector
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Table D.1 continued Textiles, cloth
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Table D.1 continued Health, educati
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Table D.2 continued 45 Bags and Con
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Part 2 — case studies
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Industry sectors’ use of e-commer
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e-commerce were chosen. Key questio
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Banking For some time now most of t
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2.3 Cost savings Banks are keen to
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2.5 Changing business modes Branch
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Banks are also looking to take adva
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NAB, as a multinational, is already
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activities such as consumer electro
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Box 3.2 Building a business on e-co
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One of the issues for all industrie
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108
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Box 4.2 Australia Post and e-commer
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Opportunities are being created for
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Value can be transferred into Austr
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Continued use of email and the deve
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E-commerce allows some flexibility
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120
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are introduced to market at a start
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educe the duplication of assessment
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6.3 Cost savings as a result of ele
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The primary e-commerce tools for im
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New service modes and channels to t
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132
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This Section will review the implic
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of greater depth. (It should be not
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consumers watch five per cent less
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artist is the promotion which airpl
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New costs The fragmentation and reg
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gambled. The development of Interne
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146
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Making a purchase over the Internet
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Customers who access troubleshootin
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they does not actually sell those i
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Key points There are few other sect
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e-commerce allows quicker order pro
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9.3 New costs The demand for busine
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How a ticket is sold, through an ag
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Box 10.1 Case study: E-commerce and
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The education and training sector h
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166
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11.2 Production Manufacturing busin
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Opportunities for re-intermediation
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Value could transfer within the sec
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174
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years’ time. 30 This reflects an
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seeks to provide a point of referen
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To a small extent, direct selling t
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182
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Box 13.1 Austmine—a window for th
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Box 13.2 Leaving mining sites for w
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188
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