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C.3 MONASH forecasts for industry output and employment This section presents forecasts for growth in industry output and employment. The relationship between growth in output and employment in the MONASH model is explained in section B.2. Table C.4 shows forecasts for industry output and employment divided into 22 sectors. More detailed forecasts are given in Appendix Table D.2. Table C. 4 Output and employment (average annual percentage growth rates for sectors) Production: Employment (a) : Sector 1993–94 1997–98 Rank 1993–94 1997–98 Rank to to based on to to based on 1997–98 2015–16 forecast 1997–98 2015–16 forecast growth growth Communications 9.0 6.5 1 0.0 -2.9 21 Finance and business services 6.8 5.2 2 1.3 0.8 12 Electronic, other specialist equip. 4.8 4.8 3 0.9 1.8 4 Transport and storage 4.9 3.7 4 2.1 0.8 13 Basic metal products 3.2 3.5 5 1.0 2.0 3 Wholesale and retail trade 4.2 3.4 6 3.1 2.4 2 Chemicals, petroleum, coal products 2.3 3.3 7 -0.5 1.4 10 Health, education and welfare 4.0 3.3 8 2.9 2.6 1 Hospitality, leisure, other services 4.2 3.2 9 2.4 1.7 5 Electricity, gas and water 3.6 3.2 10 -5.2 -5.7 22 Mining 5.2 3.0 11 0.3 -0.3 17 Food, beverages and tobacco 2.5 2.8 12 1.0 1.6 7 Dwelling ownership 2.1 2.6 13 0.0 0.0 16 Paper, paper products, printing 2.1 2.6 14 -1.2 -0.9 18 Leather, rubber, plastic products 1.0 2.6 15 -0.7 1.6 6 Construction 6.1 2.4 16 5.1 1.5 8 Agriculture, forestry and fishing 1.2 2.4 17 1.0 0.1 15 Public administration and defence 2.6 2.0 18 0.8 0.8 11 Wood and wood products 1.0 1.8 19 0.2 1.4 9 Cars and other transport equipment 2.9 1.7 20 -2.0 -2.4 20 Non-metallic construction materials 2.3 1.7 21 0.7 0.4 14 Textiles, clothing and footwear -1.5 1.0 22 -4.6 -2.0 19 (a) The numbers reported in this table for growth in employment by sector are wage-bill weighted averages of industry-level projections for growth in hours worked. The section works through the forecasts starting with the sector (Communications) having the highest forecast growth rate for output and finishes with the sector (Textiles, clothing and footwear) with the lowest forecast growth rate. Communications (ranked 1) Communication services are sold throughout the economy. In the absence of technical change, the output forecast for communications would be close to the GDP forecast. However, communications is heavily favoured in the forecasts by technology changes which result in its output being used more intensively by other industries (see column (II) of Table C.3). 70
Productivity growth over the historical period was 9.0 per cent per year. The base case forecasts imply continued strong productivity growth, with communications employment falling at an annual rate of 2.9 per cent. Part of this fall can be attributed to the assum<strong>pt</strong>ion of strong primaryfactor saving technical change continuing in the sector (column (III) of Table C.3). The rest can be attributed to a forecast of good profit growth, encouraging rapid capital growth. Finance and business services (ranked 2) The finance and business service sector benefits from technological changes which result in more intensive use of its products by industries and from a shift in household preferences (column (I) of Table C.3). These factors give it a growth rate of over five per cent per annum. The forecast of employment growth in the sector implies productivity growth of 4.4 per cent a year. This is similar to the productivity growth in the historical period. With productivity growth at this rate, the sector ranks twelfth in employment growth prospects. Electronic and other specialist equipment (ranked 3) As with the sectors ranked one and two, Electronic and other specialist equipment is favoured strongly in the forecasts from technological shifts. These have been apparent since the mid-1980s. However, in the 1980s, output growth in the sector was retarded by rapid growth of imports. In the 1990s, the sector began to specialise in the provision of parts and repairs, making its products complementary with imports rather than competitive. This has allowed the sector to achieve strong growth over recent years, in line with growth in the economy’s stock of electronic equipment. It is expected that this will continue through the projection period. The employment forecast for the sector is 1.8 per cent average annual growth, implying average annual productivity growth of 3.0 per cent. Productivity growth is strong because forecasts imply that the sector has good profit prospects, encouraging investment and hence capital growth. Transport and storage (ranked 4) Strong growth in tourism exports (see Table C.2) enhances the growth prospects of air transport, and hence of the transport and storage sector generally. Transport services are also used intensively in facilitating international trade, and with trade forecast to grow rapidly throughout the forecast period (see Table C.1), this gives a further stimulus to the sector’s growth prospects. This stimulus would be even stronger were it not for the restraints imposed by technological changes economising on the use of transport inputs. The forecasts used imply productivity growth for the transport and storage sector of 2.9 per cent, about the same rate as that achieved over the historical period. Together, output and productivity forecasts imply average annual growth in employment of 0.8 per cent. Basic metal products (ranked 5) The industries in this sector produce basic iron and steel, basic nonferrous metals and simply transformed products such as metal sheets. The largest industry is non-ferrous basic metals (mainly aluminium and alumina). This has very good growth prospects, due to a forecast of 71
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© Commonwealth of Australia 2000 I
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Table of contents Foreword ........
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Part 2 - Case studies Section One I
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Executive summary E-commerce is sti
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Part 1— economic analysis
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Chapter One Study context, aims and
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Within the business-to-business cat
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Table 1.4 Projected growth in econo
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Chapter Two Economic issues What di
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Exhibit 2.1 Disintermediation effec
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Table 2.1 E-commerce impact on vari
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Chapter Three Changes ahead—indus
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Health Significant efficiencies sta
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Chapter Four Economy-wide assessmen
Page 31 and 32: Direct changes and flow on impacts
Page 33 and 34: consumption relative to economic ac
Page 35 and 36: External competitiveness Greater us
Page 37 and 38: Industry outcomes Greater use of e-
Page 39 and 40: Food products The food products sec
Page 41 and 42: people with differing occupational
Page 43 and 44: Tasmania and the Northern Territory
Page 45 and 46: Table 4.2 Regional growth and emplo
Page 47: The data for country regions (Exhib
Page 50 and 51: impacts are a reasonable representa
Page 53 and 54: Chapter Six Policy implications and
Page 55 and 56: Appendix A Study methodology, shock
Page 57 and 58: confidence. This is at the expense
Page 59 and 60: All of the GDP gain generated by ch
Page 61 and 62: (s11) Saving of particular inputs I
Page 63 and 64: Table A.1 continued Commodity Per c
Page 65 and 66: Table A.2 continued Engine & Boiler
Page 67 and 68: Table A.2 continued Safety Inspecto
Page 69 and 70: Table A.3 continued Industries 2007
Page 71 and 72: B.2 The structure of MONASH The cor
Page 73 and 74: simulations it is assumed that the
Page 75 and 76: Table B.1 (Continued) MONASH-RR Reg
Page 77 and 78: C.2 Forecasts for macroeconomic var
Page 79 and 80: other grains, iron and non-iron ore
Page 81: The numbers in column (II) of Table
Page 85 and 86: forecast of a 0.1 per cent decline
Page 87 and 88: Productivity growth in the construc
Page 89 and 90: Employment prospects in the sector
Page 91 and 92: Table D.1 continued Textiles, cloth
Page 93 and 94: Table D.1 continued Health, educati
Page 95 and 96: Table D.2 continued 45 Bags and Con
Page 97: Part 2 — case studies
Page 100 and 101: Industry sectors’ use of e-commer
Page 102 and 103: e-commerce were chosen. Key questio
Page 104 and 105: Banking For some time now most of t
Page 106 and 107: 2.3 Cost savings Banks are keen to
Page 108 and 109: 2.5 Changing business modes Branch
Page 110 and 111: Banks are also looking to take adva
Page 112 and 113: NAB, as a multinational, is already
Page 114 and 115: activities such as consumer electro
Page 116 and 117: Box 3.2 Building a business on e-co
Page 118 and 119: One of the issues for all industrie
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Page 122 and 123: Box 4.2 Australia Post and e-commer
Page 124 and 125: Opportunities are being created for
Page 126 and 127: Value can be transferred into Austr
Page 128 and 129: Continued use of email and the deve
Page 130 and 131: E-commerce allows some flexibility
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120
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are introduced to market at a start
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educe the duplication of assessment
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6.3 Cost savings as a result of ele
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The primary e-commerce tools for im
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New service modes and channels to t
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132
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This Section will review the implic
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of greater depth. (It should be not
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consumers watch five per cent less
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artist is the promotion which airpl
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New costs The fragmentation and reg
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gambled. The development of Interne
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146
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Making a purchase over the Internet
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Customers who access troubleshootin
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they does not actually sell those i
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Key points There are few other sect
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e-commerce allows quicker order pro
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9.3 New costs The demand for busine
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How a ticket is sold, through an ag
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Box 10.1 Case study: E-commerce and
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The education and training sector h
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166
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11.2 Production Manufacturing busin
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Opportunities for re-intermediation
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Value could transfer within the sec
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174
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years’ time. 30 This reflects an
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seeks to provide a point of referen
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To a small extent, direct selling t
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Box 13.1 Austmine—a window for th
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Box 13.2 Leaving mining sites for w
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