ESTONIAN ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW 2009

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4. Weather patterns and causes of climate change Global warming is under heightened attention throughout the world. The average Estonian temperature is also moving upward, which is prompting inquiry. In the period from 1951–2000 the temperature in Estonia has risen 1.0–1.7 °C. A number of agreements have been signed on the international level to reduce emissions of the greenhouse gases that cause global warming. Estonia has successfully fulfilled its objectives. Under the Kyoto Protocol, in the years 2008–2012 Estonia will have to reduce the quantities of greenhouse gases by 8% compared to 1990 levels. By 2007, Estonian greenhouse gas emissions had already dropped by over 50% compared to 1990. Use of substances that deplete the ozone layer has ceased to a 90% extent in Estonia. The use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) is down significantly. 4.1. Estonian weather and climate Climate can be defined as the long-term average atmospheric condition in a given region. Climate is usually described in terms of the average and extreme periodic (monthly, seasonal etc) values for meteorological parameters measured over the course of decades. It is important to estimate the frequency and range of extreme values of hazardous weather phenomena such as extreme temperatures, storms, very dry or wet summers. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has selected a 30-year period as the convention for calculation of climatological normals. The most recent period was 1961–1990. Weather pattern, on the other hand, consists of characteristic features of atmospheric conditions during a shorter period (such as 2005–2008). Meteorological figures that characterize weather are contrasted to climate indices. In this environmental review, the meteorological elements in Estonia in 2005–2008 are compared to the period from 1961–2004 and climatological normal in the WMO standardized period from 1961–1990. It is evident that the long-term trend in air temperature is moving upward. A number of extreme weather conditions took place in 2005–2008: for instance, in January 2005, a violent storm and in August 2008 an enormous daily precipitation amount (table of extreme weather conditions in Appendix). 4.1.1. Air temperature A characteristic feature of the weather pattern in 2005– 2008 is higher than normal air temperature (1961–1990), this also applies to the period 1961–2004. Air temperature in 1961–2008 is characterized by a rising trend; with the average air temperature in the last three years higher than the value of the trend over many years (figure 4.1). From 1951–2000, the temperature in Estonia rose 1.0–1.7 °C (as measured at different stations: 1.0 °C according to data from Ristna station on the island of Hiiumaa and 1.7 °C in Võru) A . Average air temperature of all months in the last four years have also been higher than the respective averages for the same months over the period 1961–2004, with the exception of February (figure 4.2). From July to January, these temperature differences rise. The map of distribution of the average air temperature in February (map 4.1) shows characteristic features of the Estonian climate – distinctions between the typically colder Eastern Estonia and warmer Western Estonia/ islands region. The same map shows the minimum air temperatures at all weather stations for the years 2005–2008 and 1961–2004. Distribution of air temperature in July – the warmest summer month – in 2005–2008 in Estonia is characterized by relatively low spatial variation: from +17.0 °C (Väike-Maarja) to +18.4 °C at several weather stations. In 2005–2008 the new maximum temperature records were set in different areas (Jõhvi, Kunda, Narva-Jõesuu, Sõrve and Valga). The largest rise in maximum temperature was recorded in Jõhvi – from +32.3°C in 1961–2004 to +33.6 °C in 2005–2008. One characteristic feature of the weather pattern in 2004–2008 was a very warm December and January. For instance, in December the average air temperature exceeded the average of the previous period by 3.7 °C; in January, by 3.2 °C. December 2006 turned out to be the warmest, with new records set for average monthly air temperatures for the period 1961–2008 practically at every weather station. 56 A Jaagus, J. (2006). Climatic changes in Estonia during the second half of 20th century in relationship of changes in large scale atmospheric circulation. Theoretical and Applied Climatology Vol 83, p. 77-88.
8 air temperature˚C air temperature trend 7 6 5 4 ˚C 3 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Figure 4.1. Average air temperature in Estonia and the trend in 1961–2008. Data: EMHI. 20 15 10 1961-2004 2005-2008 10.5 10.0 15.0 14.5 17.7 16.7 16.9 15.8 12.5 11.2 8.3 5 5.1 3.9 6.3 2.8 0 -1.6 -4.8 -5.3 -5.1 -1.6 -1.7 1.2 1.0 -2.7 -5 ˚C -10 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Figure 4.2. Monthly average air temperature in the last four years compared to data for the period 1961–2004. Data: EMHI. 57
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Estonian Environment ESTONIAN ENVIR
Page 4 and 5:
Published in the “Estonian Enviro
Page 6 and 7: Table of contents Foreword 3 Introd
Page 8 and 9: 10. The environment and health 162
Page 10 and 11: Summary Socioeconomic background In
Page 12: Part 1 Socioeconomic background 1.
Page 15 and 16: 1 600 000 1 550 000 1 500 000 popul
Page 17 and 18: Sources: • Ainsaar, M., Maripuu L
Page 20 and 21: 2. The economy Estonia’s economy
Page 22 and 23: Table 2.3. GDP per capita as measur
Page 24 and 25: agriculture and fishery 3%, 3859 pr
Page 26 and 27: 2.4. Transport Transport gives peop
Page 28 and 29: 2.5. Tourism After independence was
Page 30 and 31: 2.6. Agriculture The relative impor
Page 32 and 33: Fertilizer use With regard to inorg
Page 34 and 35: Agri-environmental support monitori
Page 36: 3. Natural resources
Page 39 and 40: Construction mineral resources were
Page 41 and 42: 10000 thousands of cubic metres 800
Page 43 and 44: Status of fish stocks in inland bod
Page 45 and 46: 3.2.3. Restocking As a consequence
Page 47 and 48: Map 3.2. Average volume per hectare
Page 49 and 50: 15 increment felling volume optimum
Page 51 and 52: 3.3.5. Forest fires One of the exte
Page 53 and 54: 3.4. Hunting Hunting is closely rel
Page 55 and 56: 20 000 population size hunting bag
Page 60 and 61: o C Ristna -22.9/-28.4 Vilsandi -21
Page 62 and 63: 4.2. Greenhouse gas emissions and o
Page 64 and 65: agriculture 6% waste 3% industrial
Page 66 and 67: According to Statistics Estonia, CF
Page 68: 5. Ambient air
Page 71 and 72: 5.2. Emissions 5.2.1. Emissions of
Page 73 and 74: 5.2.2. Tropospheric ozone precursor
Page 75 and 76: Finland Bulgaria Spain Latvia tropo
Page 77 and 78: 40 35 fine particulate matter (PM 2
Page 79 and 80: other mobile pollution sources 0.04
Page 81 and 82: 6 5 4 3 2 tonnes 1 0 5.66 5.41 4.30
Page 83 and 84: Compared to years past, the number
Page 85 and 86: Hiiumaa 100 89 Saaremaa Läänemaa
Page 88 and 89: 6. Water The existence of clean fre
Page 90 and 91: 300 250 30 agriculture 200 13 manuf
Page 92 and 93: 6.2.2. Mining and cooling water In
Page 94 and 95: 250 wastewater volume total phospho
Page 96 and 97: Tallinn Kohtla-Järve Rakvere Tartu
Page 98 and 99: 6.4. Status of water 6.4.1. Groundw
Page 100 and 101: 6.4.2. Evaluating the status of sur
Page 102 and 103: 6.4.4. Status of rivers Proceeding
Page 104 and 105: Hirve Imsi Pale Uia Keila_1 Neeva S
Page 106 and 107: 6.4.5. Status of lakes The ecologic
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7. Soil and land use
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7.1.2. Soil formation Soil is creat
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7.1.4. Soil status The status of so
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7.2. Changes in land use 7.2.1. Cha
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7.2.2. Changes in land use as refle
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partly attributable to unrealized p
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7.3. Urban sprawl Suburban sprawl i
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green network core areas and corrid
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8. Biological diversity Considering
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Table 8.2 Abundance and trends for
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Species habitats The status of habi
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non-initiation of Natura environmen
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8.2.3. Achieving protection of biol
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Management plans Currently there ar
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8.3. Inland water bodies The divers
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Small lakes The equilibrium of smal
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8.4.2. Species: seals With the mild
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Proliferation of macroalgae Costal
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9. Waste
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20 total waste generated hazardous
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9.4. Municipal waste generation and
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The primary reasons for the delay a
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2004 2006 80 2005 2007 target of 15
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9.8. Recovery of waste Recovery of
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deposition in landfills other dispo
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Table 9.2. Number of landfills in 2
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10. The environment and health The
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a deficiency in the technical condi
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11. Economic instruments for enviro
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and payment, rates and use of the s
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tion, environmental educational ini
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12. Environmental management tools
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12.3. Environmental labels Consumer
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Appendix
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year month, day place event indicat
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Abbreviations used ARC - Agricultur
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