Demographic Profile of Senior in Wayne County, Michigan

A Demographic Profile of Seniors in PSA 1-A:
Implications for Funding and Service Delivery
Key Findings
PSA 1-A contained one of every four (24.9 percent) Michigan seniors in 1970, but less
than one in ten (9.3 percent) resided there as of 2000. While general population trends in
the state would predict such a shift, the 1990’s brought a variation in the region’s trend
that is both disturbing and, unfortunately, not fully understandable. The rate of loss for
seniors mirrored that of the general population during the 1970s and 1980s. In the 1990s,
however, a large variance occurred. While the rate of loss for the general population
slowed to half that of the 1980’s (6.9 vs. 14.4 percent), the rate of loss for seniors
accelerated (22.8 vs. 14.6 percent), outdistancing the general population loss by a factor
of three.
There are three potential reasons for such loss.
1. A companion study, “Health Status of Seniors: Implications for Funding and
Service Delivery,” describes the impact of excess deaths in PSA 1-A. This is
certainly a major factor in the declining population of seniors in PSA 1-A, but
does not fully explain the change that occurred during the 1990’s.
2. A second factor, and one for which data have yet to be released from the 2000
Census, is that of out-migration. While one anticipates a general movement of
seniors out-of-state, particularly to the South and West, it is also a fact that the
growth in PSA 1-B, a region which encompasses the counties immediately north
of the Detroit city limits, was driven, in part, by the movement of seniors out of 1-
A. An analysis of the 2000 Census Public Use Microdata file estimates
movement of almost 5,000 seniors from Wayne County into Macomb County
between 1995 and 2000. While we are unable to determine whether all 5,000
lived specifically in PSA 1-A in 1995, general migration patterns over the year
would suggest that the vast majority did. An additional 5,500 are estimated to
have moved to Oakland County, and almost 6,000 to other areas in southeast
Michigan (more likely affecting PSA 1-C as well).
3. The final factor is one of cohort replacement. This entails looking at population
groups in 1990 that represent the seniors of 2000 and seeing the retention levels of
those groups. The table below views changes in the senior population in two
ways.
Numerical Change, 90-00 Percent Change, 90-00
60-69 70-79 80+ 60-69 70-79 80+
Total Age Forward -24,268 -40,265 -66,931 -27.6 -42.2 -69.6
Total Comparison -31,728 -10,244 -1,646 -33.3 -15.7 -5.3
White Age Forward -12,513 -18,904 -33,648 -47.3 -54.5 -76.8
White Comparison -20,747 -13,167 -4,713 -59.8 -45.5 -31.6
Black age Forward -13,185 -21,945 -33,199 -22.1 -37.1 -64.7
Black Comparison -12,845 1,568 2,515 -21.7 4.4 16.1
Other Age Forward 1,430 584 -84 77.7 41.5 -9.0
Other Comparison 1,864 1,568 552 3.1 4.4 3.5
A Demographic Profile of Seniors in PSA 1-A 1