Demographic Profile of Senior in Wayne County, Michigan

The comparison factor, the usual way of looking at population change, simply
looks at age cohorts at two points in time. For example, we compare the number
of seniors 60-69 years of age in 2000 to the number of 60-69 year olds in 1990.
The age forward factor looks at an age cohort over time. For example, we
compare the number of seniors 60-69 years of age in 2000 with the number of 50-
59 year olds in 1990.
The results of this analysis provide a better understanding of some of the factors
contributing to the population loss. The major points that can be gleaned from this
analysis are the following:
a. A smaller cohort moving up exacerbated losses in the total population 60-69.
This is demonstrated by the fact that the age forward loss was almost 7,500
fewer than the strict age cohort comparison. While this still signals a probable
migration factor (in addition to excess death), the degree of migration is less
than a straight comparison would convey. This fact was especially true for
whites where the difference is more than 8,000, or 40 percent of the registered
loss. The difference for African Americans was very small, but in the
opposite direction. This would bolster the argument that African Americans
are dieing before reaching the age of 60.
b. Once we move into the cohorts over the age of 70 we find cohort survival (age
forward) falling behind the cohort comparison. In other words, the aging of
the elderly has resulted in small losses, and some gains, in the 70-79 and 80+
cohorts. However, when one takes 1990’s 60-69 year cohort and ages them
forward both whites and African Americans show large losses. While outmigration
still must be considered to be a factor in these losses, it is much
more likely that the excess death component in leading to the fact that fewer
seniors are surviving into their 70s. This fact is supported by the large
discrepancy in the two methods that shows up for African Americans. A
straight comparison of cohorts shows that African American seniors are aging
as the number of 70-79 and 80+ seniors showed growth between 1990 and
2000. However, when one looks at the 60-69 year olds in 1990 and compares
that with 2000’s 70-79 year cohort, the gain of 1,568 becomes a loss of
21,945. This reversal is even larger for the 80+ population. Such variations,
particularly for African Americans, can be directly tied to chronic disease and
excess deaths. Such a trend indicates a senior population with a high degree
of need.
While the representation of minorities in PSA 1-A’s senior population increased over the
decade (due to high losses of white seniors), numerical losses of minorities, coupled with
growing numbers of minorities in other regions of the Detroit metropolitan area and the
State, resulted in an 8.4 percentage point loss of minority share in the State from 62.9 to
54.5 percent.
Finally, we analyze the socioeconomic status of seniors by calculating each PSA’s share
of seniors living below 150% of the poverty threshold. 2000 Census tabulations did not
A Demographic Profile of Seniors in PSA 1-A 2