WATERING THE NEIGHBOUR'S GARDEN: THE GROWING - CICRED

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356 JIANG Q. –I. ATTANÉ –LI S. –M. FELDMAN of the projection period. Scenario B assumes that a series of step-bystep measures by the government take effect so that parity-specific SRBs decline linearly and gradually from 107.1, 151.9 and 159.4 for first, second, third and over births respectively, which are the levels observed at the 2000 census, to normal at 106 in 2030 after which they remain normal. This is the scenario that may be closest to reality in the future. We take it as the principal scenario and mainly discuss the numerical results for this scenario. Scenario C assumes the parityspecific SRBs remain constant at the high levels of 2000 until 2050. Since we investigate the impact of son preference on marriage squeeze, we eliminate the likely effect of different fertility levels on the marriage squeeze and keep the total fertility rate at 1.85 during the whole period in all three scenarios, with 0.99 for first birth, 0.85 for second birth and 0.01 for third birth. In respect to mortality level and pattern, the life expectancies at birth in 2000 are fixed at 70.0 and 73.0 for males and females respectively, and at 79.0 and 83.5 respectively in 2100, with the assumption of a linear change (Li and Jiang, 2005). The population size projected for the future is 1,436 billion according to scenario A, 1,414 billion according to scenario B and 1,401 billion according to scenario C (Figure 3), the difference being 35,2 million between A and C, 22,7 million between A and B and 12,5 million between B and C. Figure 3 Projected populations, China, 2001-2050 (In billions) In billions 1,50 1,45 1,40 1,35 1,30 Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C 1,25 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 3. Marriage squeeze in the future Figures 4 to 6 represent the potential sex ratios (R), the proportions (P) and numbers (M) of excess males, respectively, in the marriage market from 2001 to 2050, with A, B, and C denoting respectively scenarios A, B, and C of the population projections. Since
SON PREFERENCE AND <strong>THE</strong> MARRIAGE SQUEEZE IN CHINA… scenario B is the most probable scenario for future population, we discuss the male squeeze in the marriage market mainly in terms of BR (that is the potential sex ratio in the B scenario), BP (the proportion of excess males in the B scenario) and BM (the number of excess males in scenario B). Figure 4 Potential sex ratios in the future marriage market, China, 2001-2050 (Number of males per 100 females) Males per 100 females 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 BR BRf1 BRm1 C A 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037 2041 2045 2049 Figure 5 Proportions of excess males in the future marriage market, China, 2001-2050 (In percent) In percent 30 20 10 BR BRf1 BRm1 C A 0 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037 2041 2045 2049 Figure 6 Numbers of excess males in the future marriage market, China, 2001- 2050 (In thousand) In Thousand 2000 1500 1000 500 0 BR BRf1 BRm1 C A 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037 2041 2045 2049 357
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WATERING THE NEIGHBOUR’S GARDEN:
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Chapters in this volume originate f
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List of Authors Sutapa AGRAWAL is P
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Foreword The rampant demographic ma
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TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction Isab
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Introduction Isabelle ATTANÉ and C
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INTRODUCTION 3 point to an unexpect
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INTRODUCTION 5 women to avoid unwan
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INTRODUCTION 7 to estimate the cont
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INTRODUCTION 9 a feature common amo
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INTRODUCTION 11 women and may in tu
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INTRODUCTION 13 covering other regi
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INTRODUCTION 15 ratio at birth. Tha
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INTRODUCTION 17 Figure 2 Research l
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INTRODUCTION 19 This is no doubt an
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INTRODUCTION 21 References ATTANÉ
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Part I RECENT TRENDS IN SEX RATIO I
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26 LI S.-WEI Y.- JIANG Q. - M. W. F
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Sex Ratio at Birth and Excess Femal
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SEX RATIO AT BIRTH AND EXCESS FEMAL
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A Sharp Increase in Sex Ratio at Bi
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A SHARP INCREASE IN SEX RATIO AT BI
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Son Preference, Female Deficit and
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SON PREFERENCE, FEMALE DEFICIT… 2
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SON PREFERENCE, FEMALE DEFICIT… e
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SON PREFERENCE, FEMALE DEFICIT… F
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SON PREFERENCE, FEMALE DEFICIT… A
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SON PREFERENCE, FEMALE DEFICIT… b
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SON PREFERENCE, FEMALE DEFICIT… e
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SON PREFERENCE, FEMALE DEFICIT… r
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SON PREFERENCE, FEMALE DEFICIT… R
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Part II DIFFERENTIALS IN DISCRIMINA
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110 C.Z. GUILMOTO - I. ATTANÉ gap
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112 C.Z. GUILMOTO - I. ATTANÉ rise
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114 C.Z. GUILMOTO - I. ATTANÉ only
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116 C.Z. GUILMOTO - I. ATTANÉ adva
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118 C.Z. GUILMOTO - I. ATTANÉ nomi
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120 C.Z. GUILMOTO - I. ATTANÉ chil
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122 C.Z. GUILMOTO - I. ATTANÉ Figu
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124 C.Z. GUILMOTO - I. ATTANÉ incr
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126 C.Z. GUILMOTO - I. ATTANÉ itse
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128 C.Z. GUILMOTO - I. ATTANÉ patr
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1. Introduction Factors Influencing
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FACTORS INFLUENCING THE USE OF PREN
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Decreases in Male and Female Mortal
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DECREASES IN MALE AND FEMALE MORTAL
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184 KIM D.S. -SONG Y.J. birth at hi
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186 KIM D.S. -SONG Y.J. trance exam
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188 KIM D.S. -SONG Y.J. and on its
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190 KIM D.S. -SONG Y.J. striking. W
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192 KIM D.S. -SONG Y.J. Table 1 Sex
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194 KIM D.S. -SONG Y.J. maintained
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196 KIM D.S. -SONG Y.J. ritual is t
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198 KIM D.S. -SONG Y.J. and educati
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200 KIM D.S. -SONG Y.J. dents in ea
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202 KIM D.S. -SONG Y.J. behaviour i
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Part III LOCAL PERSPECTIVES ON GEND
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208 L. BOSSEN to support their husb
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210 L. BOSSEN The period of rural c
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212 L. BOSSEN throughout their live
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214 Figure 1 County sex ratio by bi
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216 L. BOSSEN The local demand for
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218 Table 3 Huang Tu Village change
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220 L. BOSSEN lineage which has the
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222 L. BOSSEN outside the patriline
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224 L. BOSSEN officials have not ye
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226 L. BOSSEN to households in its
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228 L. BOSSEN LI Shuzuo, FELDMAN Ma
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230 WU H. -M. FELDMAN -JIN X. -LI S
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Discrimination from Conception to C
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DISCRIMINATION FROM CONCEPTION TO C
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Is Son Preference Emerging among th
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IS SON PREFERENCE EMERGING AMONG TH
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Vulnerable Daughters in a Modernizi
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VULNERABLE DAUGHTERS IN A MODERNIZI
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TRANSNATIONAL MIGRATION, MARRIAGE A
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WATERING THE NEIGHBOUR'S GARDEN: THE GROWING - CICRED

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